It is often said that the worldwide economic recession has made worldwide consumers smart, who have become severe on price, prefer valued brand and switch channels of purchasing products and services as appropriate.
In a similar manner, the Japan earthquake and tsunami disaster that occurred on March 11, 2011 is assumed to change the consumers in Japan. For this reason, Boston Consulting Group (BDG) in Japan executed a survey to approximately 3,000 consumers in Japan 1 month after the earthquake and tsunami disaster.
Their conclusion was that the companies need to know “how consumers in Japan are to change in the future” rather than “when consumers will start to proactively spend their money”.
In this article, the author would like to introduce the essence of the survey and some possible insights at the end.
1. How was the survey planned and executed?
The outline of the survey by BCG in Japan is as below.
Period: April 8, 2011 (Fri) – April 10, 2011(Sun)
Methodology: online survey
Number of respondents: 3,091 in total
Information about the respondents:
Region: Toyoku (Akita/Yamagata):103, Kanto (excluding Ibaragi):2,060, Midland/Kinki:618, Other Western Japan: 310
Age/Gender: male and female of 20 – 69 years old, same constituent as that of population in Japan
1) Consumers are becoming smart in the long-term
(1) Background to Japanese consumers becoming smart is long-lasting stress
The background of “consumers becoming even much smarter” is the stress from the disaster which can be seen nationwide, attributing to “anxiety to the future”. It is possible that the stress proliferates for a long time because 60% of the respondents said that the stress will not eliminate/will remain for a long time. In the case of Kanto (eastern Japan), much of the stress attributes to “anxiety of radiation”, “fear from the disaster” and “anxiety of black out”.
(2) 6 consumer trends making consumers smart
6 consumer trends are revealed from the survey, which are “economy and saving”, “staying at home”, “risk diversification/evasion”, “healing”, “energy-saving” and “safe/security”. The first two “economy and saving”and “staying at home” are the short-term trend.
As in one of the previous article Impact of “Jishuku” (Self-Restraint) in the Japan Disaster Aftermath many people in Japan has been restraining from spending their money and was evident from the survey result as well; 40% of Kanto consumers replied that “consumer spending should be restrained” and “actually restraining from spending”. This trend is prominent among people above 60 years old (i.e. with relatively large disposable income); 50% of them answered that they are to cut spending on travelling/trip. Indeed, spending on travelling, entertainment and eating out has been cut when online shopping has been decreasing a little.
In addition, approximately 50% of Kanto respondents answered that they now spend more time at home. This trend is evident among females; 60% of them answered so. From the survey results, people spending their time at home enjoy their hobby, watching TV, reading and online shopping.
The remaining 4 trends “risk diversification/evasion”, “healing”, “energy-saving” and “safe/security” are regarded to be of long-term trend; 50-60% of respondents answered so. Regarding “energy-saving” already over 90% of Kanto residents and over 80% nationwide have been saving energy in some way or other and majority of them are to continue saving energy in the future. Regarding “safety/security”, approximately 60% answered that now they value food safety than they used to and more than 50% do not intend to change their stance at least for a while after the radiation/contamination issue is solved.
2) Social media (twitter, YouTube) is gaining more popularity especially among people in 50s and 60s
Twitter broke out in 2010 mostly among early adaptors of younger generation. And with the Japan disaster, Japanese people on twitter increased from 5.6 million to 7.5 million. This attributes to the fact that people online realized anew that the Internet is a valuable infrastructure, and that the Japanese government recommended public sectors to leverage social media.
In fact, 10% of the respondents answered that “they started using twitter” or “they would like to start using twitter”. This trend is conspicuous among people in 50s and 60s; 13% of them answered so. Similar trend can be seen for video such as YouTube.
3) More consumers have more social mindset
30% of the respondents answered that “they love their country more than they used to” when only 7% answered that “the hate their country than they used to”. 32% answered that they are determined to proactively donate and 16% answered that they will get involved in volunteer activities. In addition, 80% answered that they would like to help Tohoku (the hard-hit region) by proactively purchasing Tohoku products and services.
3. The author’s final thoughts
Although one of the consumer trends is spending less, the change in Japanese consumers can be a good opportunity for companies to exploit new market and create a new business model.
In fact, there have been some products and services that started to draw attention from consumers such as car sharing, cloud services and renting a house instead of owning a house because consumers realized “risk of owning something” from the disaster. Also, more people are now willing to pay for products and services of power generation and energy saving.
Online shopping has been one of the industries that were not negatively impacted by the worldwide recession and it is possible that this industry plus social media can be a source of a new business model as well. At least companies need to review and change their marketing mix considering the trend of increasing use of the Internet and social media.
Talking about marketing, with more consumers with social minds, it is possible that it is more effective to deliver the stance and philosophy of the company and safety/security of the products and services rather than functions of the products. Moreover, even though social marketing, very often collaborating with NPO and NGO, has been unpopular in Japan, with rise in social minds, social marketing may start to come in and spread also in Japan.
Thus, the disaster can trigger a positive change, an opportunity for companies to gain competitiveness, by being creative and innovative.
References:-
Ohtani, Naoki and Saito, Naoto from Boston Consulting Group in Japan (April 28, 2011), The Japan Disaster is to Change Japanese Companies – Do Not Miss the 3 New Trends (in Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/topics/20110426/219657/
Resources:-
The Japan disaster is changing consumers in Japan in 3 ways; making them smarter, making them leverage social media, and making them with more social mindset. By understanding such changes in consumers, it is possible for companies to create new market and develop new business model by being creative and innovative, thus gaining competitiveness.
2011年4月30日土曜日
2011年4月29日金曜日
The Japan Disaster Cuts Revenue of Japanese Companies
Osaka - Friday, April 29, 2011
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy, reported today that the Japan disaster of the earthquake and tsunami is negatively affecting revenue of Japanese listed companies. Consolidated net profit for January – March 2011 was minus 32% from those of 2010. This is the reduction in revenue/profit when their revenue/profit has been improving consecutively for the last 6 quarters.
The main reasons include the extraordinary loss attributing to the damage to production equipment and the profit cut due to decrease in revenue.
As a result, the loss attributing to the damages of listed companies totaled approximately 1 trillion yen as of April 28. This clearly indicates that the Japanese companies had overcome the worldwide economic recession (Lehman's fall) and their profitability had been recovering but their management environment is now deteriorating to negatively affecting their profitability.
1. How did Nikkei come to the conclusion?
Nikkei collected financial data of 544 listed companies (excluding financial and new companies) whose financial announcement including revision of the previous estimation for January – March 2011 has been made by April 28 and calculated consolidated net profit of the 544 companies.
Nikkei also collected financial data of approximately 1000 listed companies whose financial announcement including revision of the previous estimation has been made for February and/or March 2011 and calculated their extraordinary loss.
2. What is the conclusion?
January – March 2011 was reduction in profitability. However, with accumulative profit of April – December 2010, their revenue and profit increased from those of previous year for fiscal year ending March 2011.
Financial performance of the Japanese companies has been recovering due to demand increase of emerging countries since they had overcome the worldwide recession.
However, for January – March 2011, the Japan disaster from earthquake and tsunami that occurred on March 11 negatively impacted their financial performance. This is why companies such as Seiko Epson and ANA ended up being in red for January – March 2011.
With calculation of the extraordinary loss from the disaster and other negative impact from the disaster across the industry, the total loss from the disaster of all companies is estimated to teach more than 1 trillion yen.
3. How the Japan Disaster affected the financial performance of Japanese Companies?
According to the calculation by Nikkei, the extraordinary loss totaled approximately 600 billion yen. This is more than that of the Kobe earthquake in 1995, which was approximately 400 billion yen.
Major Companies with Loss from the Disaster over 10 Billion Yen (in billion yen)
(Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)
Industry / Company Name / Loss / Main Reasons
Electronics & Machinery / Hitachi / 50.0 / Damaged power generation equipment plant
Electronics & Machinery / Fujitsu / 11.6 / Damaged factories, recorded loss of fixed cost due to operation halt
Electronics & Machinery / IHI / 10.5 / Eliminating production equipment, recovery cost
Iron & Steel / Sumitomo Metal Industries / 62.0 Damaged Kashima plant
Iron & Steel / JFE / 28.3 / Tsunami directly hit factory in Sendai
Iron & Steel / Nippon Steel / 23.7 / Kamaishi plant in Iwate flooded by tsunami
Oil & Chemical / JX Holdings / 126.0 / Damaged oil factory in Sendai and Miyagi
Oil & Chemical / Shin-Etsu Chemical / 21.0 / Damaged Kashima plant that produces vinyl chloride
Telecommunication & Transportation / NTT / 110.0 / Damaged power poles, optical cables, base station of mobile phones
Telecommunication & Transportation / JR East / 58.7 / Damage of railroads and bridges of Tohoku Shinkansen Lines
Telecommunication & Transportation / KDDI / 17.5 / Damaged base stations of mobile phones, loss from eliminating optical cables
Retailer / AEON / 30.0 / 200 damaged supermarkets
Retailer / Seven & i Holdings / 26.0 / Damaged supermarkets in North East Japan
* Loss of some companies excludes those of insurance
The extraordinary loss of the top 4 iron and steel companies totaled 114 billion yen. The main loss is of Sumitomo Metal Industry which is more than 60 billion yen. Another is of 23.7 billion yen of Nippon Steel that made financial announcement on April 28, with half of the extraordinary loss of Kamaishi plant in Iwate flooded by tsunami.
The impact of the disaster is not limited to extraordinary losses. There are some cases in which operating profit was negatively impacted by the disaster such as of Hitachi and Canon. The loss from the disaster excluding the extraordinary loss totals approximately 400 billion yen.
The loss from the disaster is to negatively impact the revenue for April – June 2011 of many companies, especially that of automobiles. It is estimated that the loss for retailers for fiscal year ending February 2012 is to total 80 billion yen.
Some experts say that the revenue across industries would start to recover from October 2011 benefitting from increased demand attributing to recovery from the disaster; however, many company executives are extremely anxious of the future.
Resources:-
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy, estimated that although financial performance of Japanese companies has been recovering lately, the loss of Japanese companies across the industry from the Japan disaster (earthquake and tsunami) is to total more than 1 trillion yen.
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy, reported today that the Japan disaster of the earthquake and tsunami is negatively affecting revenue of Japanese listed companies. Consolidated net profit for January – March 2011 was minus 32% from those of 2010. This is the reduction in revenue/profit when their revenue/profit has been improving consecutively for the last 6 quarters.
The main reasons include the extraordinary loss attributing to the damage to production equipment and the profit cut due to decrease in revenue.
As a result, the loss attributing to the damages of listed companies totaled approximately 1 trillion yen as of April 28. This clearly indicates that the Japanese companies had overcome the worldwide economic recession (Lehman's fall) and their profitability had been recovering but their management environment is now deteriorating to negatively affecting their profitability.
1. How did Nikkei come to the conclusion?
Nikkei collected financial data of 544 listed companies (excluding financial and new companies) whose financial announcement including revision of the previous estimation for January – March 2011 has been made by April 28 and calculated consolidated net profit of the 544 companies.
Nikkei also collected financial data of approximately 1000 listed companies whose financial announcement including revision of the previous estimation has been made for February and/or March 2011 and calculated their extraordinary loss.
2. What is the conclusion?
January – March 2011 was reduction in profitability. However, with accumulative profit of April – December 2010, their revenue and profit increased from those of previous year for fiscal year ending March 2011.
Financial performance of the Japanese companies has been recovering due to demand increase of emerging countries since they had overcome the worldwide recession.
However, for January – March 2011, the Japan disaster from earthquake and tsunami that occurred on March 11 negatively impacted their financial performance. This is why companies such as Seiko Epson and ANA ended up being in red for January – March 2011.
With calculation of the extraordinary loss from the disaster and other negative impact from the disaster across the industry, the total loss from the disaster of all companies is estimated to teach more than 1 trillion yen.
3. How the Japan Disaster affected the financial performance of Japanese Companies?
According to the calculation by Nikkei, the extraordinary loss totaled approximately 600 billion yen. This is more than that of the Kobe earthquake in 1995, which was approximately 400 billion yen.
Major Companies with Loss from the Disaster over 10 Billion Yen (in billion yen)
(Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)
Industry / Company Name / Loss / Main Reasons
Electronics & Machinery / Hitachi / 50.0 / Damaged power generation equipment plant
Electronics & Machinery / Fujitsu / 11.6 / Damaged factories, recorded loss of fixed cost due to operation halt
Electronics & Machinery / IHI / 10.5 / Eliminating production equipment, recovery cost
Iron & Steel / Sumitomo Metal Industries / 62.0 Damaged Kashima plant
Iron & Steel / JFE / 28.3 / Tsunami directly hit factory in Sendai
Iron & Steel / Nippon Steel / 23.7 / Kamaishi plant in Iwate flooded by tsunami
Oil & Chemical / JX Holdings / 126.0 / Damaged oil factory in Sendai and Miyagi
Oil & Chemical / Shin-Etsu Chemical / 21.0 / Damaged Kashima plant that produces vinyl chloride
Telecommunication & Transportation / NTT / 110.0 / Damaged power poles, optical cables, base station of mobile phones
Telecommunication & Transportation / JR East / 58.7 / Damage of railroads and bridges of Tohoku Shinkansen Lines
Telecommunication & Transportation / KDDI / 17.5 / Damaged base stations of mobile phones, loss from eliminating optical cables
Retailer / AEON / 30.0 / 200 damaged supermarkets
Retailer / Seven & i Holdings / 26.0 / Damaged supermarkets in North East Japan
* Loss of some companies excludes those of insurance
The extraordinary loss of the top 4 iron and steel companies totaled 114 billion yen. The main loss is of Sumitomo Metal Industry which is more than 60 billion yen. Another is of 23.7 billion yen of Nippon Steel that made financial announcement on April 28, with half of the extraordinary loss of Kamaishi plant in Iwate flooded by tsunami.
The impact of the disaster is not limited to extraordinary losses. There are some cases in which operating profit was negatively impacted by the disaster such as of Hitachi and Canon. The loss from the disaster excluding the extraordinary loss totals approximately 400 billion yen.
The loss from the disaster is to negatively impact the revenue for April – June 2011 of many companies, especially that of automobiles. It is estimated that the loss for retailers for fiscal year ending February 2012 is to total 80 billion yen.
Some experts say that the revenue across industries would start to recover from October 2011 benefitting from increased demand attributing to recovery from the disaster; however, many company executives are extremely anxious of the future.
Resources:-
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy, estimated that although financial performance of Japanese companies has been recovering lately, the loss of Japanese companies across the industry from the Japan disaster (earthquake and tsunami) is to total more than 1 trillion yen.
2011年4月18日月曜日
Global Components Shortage - Time for Companies to Become Competitive
As in the previous article 40 Trillion Yen Loss from Broken Global Supply Network – the Japan Disaster as much as 40 trillion yen loss is estimated to occur due to broken global supply chain of critical components of automotive and electronics, attributing to the Japan disaster and its aftermath. Negative effects on business and economy from the broken links have been one of the hottest topics about the disaster, both English and Japanese sources, such as the fact that Toyota has been halting operation in its plants in Japan and cascading that it may affect operation in their dealers in the U.S.
On the other hand, there was an online Japanese article that insists that this critical situation of shortage of electronics components can be converted to an opportunity to strengthen the nature of companies to become competitive.
The author would like to first briefly explain why the broken global link occurred then introduce the essence of the article published on April 14, written by a Japanese management consultant, Kishira, Yuji.
1. What is the reason for severe shortage of critical electronics components due to broken global supply chain?
According to Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy reported on 9th April, it is ironically the management innovation of Japanese electronics components suppliers.
With “kaizen” spirit, many of the Japanese components suppliers, although they might be small in size, radically improved productivity while boosting quality to become extremely competitive globally. Such companies became (almost) “the only one” supplier in their respective business domain, with worldwide market share of 70% or more in some cases. Also such companies integrated their plants in pursuit of efficiency and productivity to plants in Tohoku (the hard hit region from the disaster).
And, with the disaster that made such plants to operate for weeks and/or broke physical distribution network because roads are piled with wreckage and requires clearance etc., the global supply chain of critical electronics components collapsed, affective automotives and high-tech industries in particular.
As Kishira points out, finished products cannot be made even if one single component out of hundreds and thousands of components lacks. Thus, worldwide finished product makers and trading companies supporting them are making upmost efforts to assure components, when finished makers had been minimizing inventory of components with long year cost reduction and just-in-time efforts and thus have no additional inventories.
2. How can this critical situation of component shortage be converted into an opportunity to become competitive?
1) Check inventory of finished products recorded in financial statement
Kishira agrees that inventory of components are likely to be drying up but insists that inventory of finished products needs to be checked and if it is equivalent to 2 months supply to the market it means in average supply of 2 months is secured.
In addition, there should be inventories of finished products in whole sellers and retailers, meaning that it is quite possible that there are more inventories of finished products than recorded in financial statement.
This means that although it is of extreme view, while the inventories of finished products are available, it is possible that the actual loss turns out to be smaller even if the production stops. And, if inventories are cleared out without drop in sales during period, it is possible that the profitability of the company improves drastically.
2) Focus resources (including components) only on selling well products from end-to-end total optimization perspective
Of course there can be many types of inventories, such as those of selling well products with very little inventories from those of slow moving products with too much inventory because few consumers buy. Products with much inventory will not be produced, and this means components of such products will become overabundant.
Although finished products are different, there are many cases in which same components are used. If that would be the case, the overabundant components can be used to product selling well products.
This approach is of utilizing components exclusively to selling well products with scarce inventories, meaning providing only products that consumers buy. This would also mean gradual decrease in inventory of slow moving products. This really is about focusing resources on what the market really needs.
With 2 months inventory, the products made from how will in average reach market 2 months from now. When critical components are insufficient finished product makers cannot afford to produce products that “might” be necessary in 2 months time. Many of production touch time (time actually required to manufacture products) are constituted by processes in (ten) minutes. It is not necessarily required to have 2 months inventory if products can be manufactured in such a time.
The minimum inventory required is total of manufacturing time, lead time to restock including transportation time and estimated maximum number of products to be sold at the peak. Production planning can be made and implemented with minimum inventory plus trend in demand.
This approach requires sharing such information with component suppliers as well, to maximize efficiency of limited capacity to make and provide finished products to market from end-to-end (component suppliers to retailers) total optimization perspective.
If this approach is taken appropriately it would mean optimization of constituents of finished product inventory, leading consequently to improvement in profitability.
3) Make the operation of new approach permanent
Many companies may well be executing operation mentioned above to some degree and it is in crisis that many companies come up with great discovery and implement thoroughly operation of new approach.
However, many companies go back to their old operation when the crisis passes by. That is what should be avoided. Companies need to embed the new productive approach in everyday operation to make it permanent. This would lead to sustainable growth of the company.
If there is a few months inventory recorded in financial statement, regard that few months as transition period to switching to the operation of the new approach and establish a system to make that operation sustainable. Then the company will be able to transform to a productive operation and process system with minimum inventory of optimum constituents, a requirement for high performing and sustainable company.
3. The author’s final thoughts
What Kishira says reminds the author of the objective and concept of Change Management based on the book “Leading Change” by Professor John P. Kotter of Harvard.
This is of 8 steps in managing change, change in processes, systems, and how people do everyday business. This requires cultural change, as mentioned in step 8, in which the new way of doing everyday business is “embedded” in the organization. In many cases, such change management starts with some kind of “trigger” that creates sense of urgency as mentioned in step 1. Sense of urgency usually comes from some kind of crisis.
To the author, what Kishira want to say is to take this opportunity to make and manage change to make the company competitive, and that is what the author would like to advocate, taking this opportunity.
This is to start with creating sense of sense of urgency under the current crisis (shortage of critical components attributing to the broken global supply chain), to change processes, systems, operation and how companies engage in everyday business. And the companies need to make sure to complete until the last step so that the operation with the new approach is becomes a part of their DNA and they would not go back to old way of doing business/operation.
References:-
Kishira, Yuji (April 14, 2011) Electronics Component Shortage is Serious – But No Need to Worry. Now is the Time for Companies to Become Competitive. This is Why
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11893
On the other hand, there was an online Japanese article that insists that this critical situation of shortage of electronics components can be converted to an opportunity to strengthen the nature of companies to become competitive.
The author would like to first briefly explain why the broken global link occurred then introduce the essence of the article published on April 14, written by a Japanese management consultant, Kishira, Yuji.
1. What is the reason for severe shortage of critical electronics components due to broken global supply chain?
According to Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy reported on 9th April, it is ironically the management innovation of Japanese electronics components suppliers.
With “kaizen” spirit, many of the Japanese components suppliers, although they might be small in size, radically improved productivity while boosting quality to become extremely competitive globally. Such companies became (almost) “the only one” supplier in their respective business domain, with worldwide market share of 70% or more in some cases. Also such companies integrated their plants in pursuit of efficiency and productivity to plants in Tohoku (the hard hit region from the disaster).
And, with the disaster that made such plants to operate for weeks and/or broke physical distribution network because roads are piled with wreckage and requires clearance etc., the global supply chain of critical electronics components collapsed, affective automotives and high-tech industries in particular.
As Kishira points out, finished products cannot be made even if one single component out of hundreds and thousands of components lacks. Thus, worldwide finished product makers and trading companies supporting them are making upmost efforts to assure components, when finished makers had been minimizing inventory of components with long year cost reduction and just-in-time efforts and thus have no additional inventories.
2. How can this critical situation of component shortage be converted into an opportunity to become competitive?
1) Check inventory of finished products recorded in financial statement
Kishira agrees that inventory of components are likely to be drying up but insists that inventory of finished products needs to be checked and if it is equivalent to 2 months supply to the market it means in average supply of 2 months is secured.
In addition, there should be inventories of finished products in whole sellers and retailers, meaning that it is quite possible that there are more inventories of finished products than recorded in financial statement.
This means that although it is of extreme view, while the inventories of finished products are available, it is possible that the actual loss turns out to be smaller even if the production stops. And, if inventories are cleared out without drop in sales during period, it is possible that the profitability of the company improves drastically.
2) Focus resources (including components) only on selling well products from end-to-end total optimization perspective
Of course there can be many types of inventories, such as those of selling well products with very little inventories from those of slow moving products with too much inventory because few consumers buy. Products with much inventory will not be produced, and this means components of such products will become overabundant.
Although finished products are different, there are many cases in which same components are used. If that would be the case, the overabundant components can be used to product selling well products.
This approach is of utilizing components exclusively to selling well products with scarce inventories, meaning providing only products that consumers buy. This would also mean gradual decrease in inventory of slow moving products. This really is about focusing resources on what the market really needs.
With 2 months inventory, the products made from how will in average reach market 2 months from now. When critical components are insufficient finished product makers cannot afford to produce products that “might” be necessary in 2 months time. Many of production touch time (time actually required to manufacture products) are constituted by processes in (ten) minutes. It is not necessarily required to have 2 months inventory if products can be manufactured in such a time.
The minimum inventory required is total of manufacturing time, lead time to restock including transportation time and estimated maximum number of products to be sold at the peak. Production planning can be made and implemented with minimum inventory plus trend in demand.
This approach requires sharing such information with component suppliers as well, to maximize efficiency of limited capacity to make and provide finished products to market from end-to-end (component suppliers to retailers) total optimization perspective.
If this approach is taken appropriately it would mean optimization of constituents of finished product inventory, leading consequently to improvement in profitability.
3) Make the operation of new approach permanent
Many companies may well be executing operation mentioned above to some degree and it is in crisis that many companies come up with great discovery and implement thoroughly operation of new approach.
However, many companies go back to their old operation when the crisis passes by. That is what should be avoided. Companies need to embed the new productive approach in everyday operation to make it permanent. This would lead to sustainable growth of the company.
If there is a few months inventory recorded in financial statement, regard that few months as transition period to switching to the operation of the new approach and establish a system to make that operation sustainable. Then the company will be able to transform to a productive operation and process system with minimum inventory of optimum constituents, a requirement for high performing and sustainable company.
3. The author’s final thoughts
What Kishira says reminds the author of the objective and concept of Change Management based on the book “Leading Change” by Professor John P. Kotter of Harvard.
This is of 8 steps in managing change, change in processes, systems, and how people do everyday business. This requires cultural change, as mentioned in step 8, in which the new way of doing everyday business is “embedded” in the organization. In many cases, such change management starts with some kind of “trigger” that creates sense of urgency as mentioned in step 1. Sense of urgency usually comes from some kind of crisis.
To the author, what Kishira want to say is to take this opportunity to make and manage change to make the company competitive, and that is what the author would like to advocate, taking this opportunity.
This is to start with creating sense of sense of urgency under the current crisis (shortage of critical components attributing to the broken global supply chain), to change processes, systems, operation and how companies engage in everyday business. And the companies need to make sure to complete until the last step so that the operation with the new approach is becomes a part of their DNA and they would not go back to old way of doing business/operation.
References:-
Kishira, Yuji (April 14, 2011) Electronics Component Shortage is Serious – But No Need to Worry. Now is the Time for Companies to Become Competitive. This is Why
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11893
2011年4月12日火曜日
40 Trillion Yen Loss from Broken Global Supply Network - the Japan Disaster
Osaka - Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy reported on April 9 that the Japanese government estimated the loss from the broken link of global supply network attributing to the Japan disaster to reach 40 trillion yen worldwide.
1. How did the Japanese government estimate the loss?
METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) initiated to urgently investigate the negative effect of stagnation of production of components and materials of growth industries by performing survey regarding the worldwide production loss and possibility of the damage to Japan such as switching suppliers from Japan to other countries in the end of March.
The government estimated the loss based on the assumption that production of semiconductor related components are halted from the middle of March to the end of April. And the conclusion is that production and services equivalent to in total approximately 40 trillion yen will be negatively affected worldwide.
2. What are the examples of such losses?
1) Microcomputer
This is inevitable for controlling driving of cars. If the plants and other sites of the leader of this component production and supply based in Miyagi prefecture called Renesas Electronics should stop operating for 1-1/2 months it is possible that it leads to approximately 6.5 trillion yen loss of worldwide automobile production. It also could mean loss of flat panel TV production loss of 400 billion yen.
2) Silicon Wafer
This is the main material for semiconductors. The worldwide leader is Shin-Etsu Chemical and if its affiliate plant in Fukushima prefecture has damaged and its recovery is still unknown. If the production of the plant should stop for 1-1/2 months it is estimated that it leads to approximately 1/5 trillion yen loss in worldwide semiconductor production. It would also lead to decrease in sales of services of telecommunication, the Internet and broadcasting totaling approximately 30 trillion yen.
3) Smartphone
Japan has been enjoying market share of approximately 70% for LCD panel for smart phones but it is possible that sufficient production cannot be done and the conclusion from the hearing is that worldwide smart phone manufacturers may switch to LCD panel makers in other countries, meaning decrease in the market share that Japan has been enjoying.
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy reported on April 9 that the Japanese government estimated the loss from the broken link of global supply network attributing to the Japan disaster to reach 40 trillion yen worldwide.
1. How did the Japanese government estimate the loss?
METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) initiated to urgently investigate the negative effect of stagnation of production of components and materials of growth industries by performing survey regarding the worldwide production loss and possibility of the damage to Japan such as switching suppliers from Japan to other countries in the end of March.
The government estimated the loss based on the assumption that production of semiconductor related components are halted from the middle of March to the end of April. And the conclusion is that production and services equivalent to in total approximately 40 trillion yen will be negatively affected worldwide.
2. What are the examples of such losses?
1) Microcomputer
This is inevitable for controlling driving of cars. If the plants and other sites of the leader of this component production and supply based in Miyagi prefecture called Renesas Electronics should stop operating for 1-1/2 months it is possible that it leads to approximately 6.5 trillion yen loss of worldwide automobile production. It also could mean loss of flat panel TV production loss of 400 billion yen.
2) Silicon Wafer
This is the main material for semiconductors. The worldwide leader is Shin-Etsu Chemical and if its affiliate plant in Fukushima prefecture has damaged and its recovery is still unknown. If the production of the plant should stop for 1-1/2 months it is estimated that it leads to approximately 1/5 trillion yen loss in worldwide semiconductor production. It would also lead to decrease in sales of services of telecommunication, the Internet and broadcasting totaling approximately 30 trillion yen.
3) Smartphone
Japan has been enjoying market share of approximately 70% for LCD panel for smart phones but it is possible that sufficient production cannot be done and the conclusion from the hearing is that worldwide smart phone manufacturers may switch to LCD panel makers in other countries, meaning decrease in the market share that Japan has been enjoying.
2011年4月8日金曜日
Impact of “Jishuku” (Self-Restraint) in the Japan Disaster Aftermath
Osaka - Thursday, April 7, 2011
The Japan disaster, what Dr. Neal calls “natech” (nature + technology) disaster as explained in the article How the World and Japan Should Handle Japan Disaster is extremely complex. For this reason, topics reported by Japanese media about the disaster range from anything about victims such as the severe environment in which they currently live in and how large group of them (in hundreds) transfer to somewhere safer, to Fukushima nuclear plant accident and variety of issues affected by the accidents that are negative for recovery and reconstruction of the country.
One of such a topic is “jishuku”, the fact that many events and entertainments are cancelled as “self-restraint” throughout Japan. It is interesting to note that reports and discussions on this topic are triggered by the article by New York Times online on March 27 about this topic, using the Japanese word “jishuku”.
In this article, the author would like to summarize recent reports and discussions by Japanese media adding what she actually experiences on the topic, and present a possible option to minimize negative effect of “jishuku”.
1. How is “jishuku” (self-restraint) spreading after the Japan disaster?
Many events (concerts, sport games etc.) that were originally planned to be held are cancelled or postponed since the earthquake and tsunami on that hit north eastern Japan on March 11 and are replaced by charity concerts and events.
April is when new graduates start working in Japan and April 1 is their welcoming ceremony; however, many companies cancelled such ceremonies. Parties welcoming new members as well as usual entertainments (eating, dining etc.) are mostly cancelled and therefore sales of restaurants and hotels have dropped than more than 50%, some even as much as 80%.
April in Japan is also when people enjoy “ohanami” events and entertainments, which is to enjoy cherry blossoms while eating and drinking, at daytime and night time, as mentioned in What is the Message of Recent Cherry Blossom Phenomenon? thus is one of the peak for tourism and entertainment of individuals but this is also in “jishuku” mood.
Tourist spots famous for beautiful cherry blossoms would plan and hold events to attract tourists; however, many of them downsize events, do away with night time light-ups, open the facility (e.g. temples) for shorter hours and so forth. Inevitably, hotels, souvenir shops and restaurants that usually benefit from “ohanami” seasons are hardly hit.
2. What are some of the exceptions?
The baseball tournament in which high schools from throughout Japan in the end of March in Kobe was held as every other year with additional programme in consideration to the disaster. In the opening ceremony in which a participant of the tournament representing players makes a declaration of fair competition, moment of silent prayer was set first. Also, the team from Tohoku (the most hardly hit area) was warmly welcomed in particular and students from Kobe supported to encourage them because in this situation their own supports would not be able to come all the way from north eastern Japan to Kobe in western Japan.
National professional baseball tournament is also to be held like previous years but there had been a great discussion as to the date of the start and the time of the day being played to avoid night games, considering the situation in which saving electricity to minimize blackout is a critical issue.
A few “ohanami” spots famous for beauty of cherry blossoms decided to hold events and night time lightening shows to entertain and encourage people including victims. Such examples include Maruyama Koen Park in Kyoto.
3. What is the opinion of the Japanese people about “jishuku”?
Their opinion is divided between for and against “jishuku”. The Governor of Tokyo is for the “jishuku”, and a popular female minister responsible for renewal for administration is against “jishuku”. Both are very popular among media and the general public.
And, when Nikkei, a leading newspaper specialized in business and economy implemented a survey on April 5 and 6 about pros and cons of “jishuku” in which 4,823 people responded, 78% answered that currently it is too excessive and “consumption to assist economic recovery of Tohoku is necessary”.
1) People against (excessive) “jishuku”
What they meant is consumption directly contributing to recovery of the devastated area. For example, this is by proactively goods made in Tohoku, which are famous for high level rice, Japanese sake and many others, because it would have similar value with relief aid. Some others said that “everyone to proactively buy things and all business organizations could donate 1% of sales as relief aid” and “everyone could consume without feeling guilty if consumption tax is implemented to be used exclusively for issues related to the disaster”.
Some other comments from people who feels current “jishuku” is excess include “jishuku is not to be obligated (but done voluntarily)” and “jishuku and saving electricity/being frugal needs to be considered as something completely different”.
2) People in favour of “jishuku” and people who say “jishuku” cannot be avoided for economic reasons
It seems many of these people do not feel like enjoying entertainment if they think of victims in the devastated area. There was a comment such as “it may be necessary to have a certain period of “jishuku” nationwide so that everyone would remember the historic disaster”.
Some others seriously said that “jishuku” cannot be avoided due to economic reasons, worrying about their future, which implies secondary and thirdly negative effect of the disaster is spreading. Such people said that “In this situation surely the annual income will be reduced while tax will be increased”, “Our business has been shrinking since the outbreak of the disaster. It is quite possible that first comes overtime work cut followed by salary cut and then restructuring. Tax increase for recovery from the disaster is also quite possible. In such a situation how could you sped your money (on entertainment)?
3. How “jishuku” is better handled
Even people who are not directly affected by the disaster, they may well be forced to “jishuku” i.e. cut on spending for economic reasons as some commented in the survey; however, without sufficient consumer spending, the total economy would remain stagnant although there might be a little stimulant in general construction industry from reconstruction of social infrastructure (e.g. housing, roads, facilities).
What can be done is build consensus to hold events among the industry members then hold events saying that such consensus is formed in inviting people so that they will not feel guilty to participate in the events. This would require good communication among the industry members. This would be difficult normally because many organizations would like to keep their initiatives/plan secret; however, according to Naito, organizations have been exchanging information in depth even among rivals regarding countermeasure to aftermath of the disaster.
In addition, events could be tailored so that it could contribute to relief aids. Charity concerts, fund raising at the events, moment of silent prayers to the devastated area and victims, and other consideration are important.
Naito introduces a message from a business owner of Japanese sake in Tohoku at the end of his article, which is “please do not “jishuku” too much, but instead support us by enjoying our Tohoku sake”.
Excessive “jishuku” stagnates economy and this means lowing down of recovery and reconstruction. We all need to do what we can; save electricity, be frugal while consume appropriately and work hard, all to make our ends meet and keep the economy going, the requirement for recovery and reconstruction.
Resources:-
Naito, Ko (March 30, 2011) Truth of “jishuku of consumption” – countermeasures for minimizing “the fourth disaster” (In Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/money/20110329/219215/?P=1
Naito, Ko (April 7, 2011) People who stand against “consumption jishuku” – Let’s do what we can if time allows (In Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/money/20110406/219332/?P=1
Takagi, Koji (April 7, 2011) Japanese companies together cancelled ceremony welcoming new graduates and postponed welcoming parties – When should “jishuku” mood be eliminated when such mood has been spreading? (In Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11783
Nikkei (April 7, 2011) 78% responded “jishuku” is too much and “consumption to support” necessary – From survey (In Japanese)
http://www.nikkei.com/life/simple/article/g=96958A90889DE0E4E0E4E4E2E3E2E2E4E2E6E0E2E3E3E2E2E2E2E2E2;dg=1;q=F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2;p=9694E3E6E2E4E0E2E3E2E4EAE1E3
The Japan disaster, what Dr. Neal calls “natech” (nature + technology) disaster as explained in the article How the World and Japan Should Handle Japan Disaster is extremely complex. For this reason, topics reported by Japanese media about the disaster range from anything about victims such as the severe environment in which they currently live in and how large group of them (in hundreds) transfer to somewhere safer, to Fukushima nuclear plant accident and variety of issues affected by the accidents that are negative for recovery and reconstruction of the country.
One of such a topic is “jishuku”, the fact that many events and entertainments are cancelled as “self-restraint” throughout Japan. It is interesting to note that reports and discussions on this topic are triggered by the article by New York Times online on March 27 about this topic, using the Japanese word “jishuku”.
In this article, the author would like to summarize recent reports and discussions by Japanese media adding what she actually experiences on the topic, and present a possible option to minimize negative effect of “jishuku”.
1. How is “jishuku” (self-restraint) spreading after the Japan disaster?
Many events (concerts, sport games etc.) that were originally planned to be held are cancelled or postponed since the earthquake and tsunami on that hit north eastern Japan on March 11 and are replaced by charity concerts and events.
April is when new graduates start working in Japan and April 1 is their welcoming ceremony; however, many companies cancelled such ceremonies. Parties welcoming new members as well as usual entertainments (eating, dining etc.) are mostly cancelled and therefore sales of restaurants and hotels have dropped than more than 50%, some even as much as 80%.
April in Japan is also when people enjoy “ohanami” events and entertainments, which is to enjoy cherry blossoms while eating and drinking, at daytime and night time, as mentioned in What is the Message of Recent Cherry Blossom Phenomenon? thus is one of the peak for tourism and entertainment of individuals but this is also in “jishuku” mood.
Tourist spots famous for beautiful cherry blossoms would plan and hold events to attract tourists; however, many of them downsize events, do away with night time light-ups, open the facility (e.g. temples) for shorter hours and so forth. Inevitably, hotels, souvenir shops and restaurants that usually benefit from “ohanami” seasons are hardly hit.
2. What are some of the exceptions?
The baseball tournament in which high schools from throughout Japan in the end of March in Kobe was held as every other year with additional programme in consideration to the disaster. In the opening ceremony in which a participant of the tournament representing players makes a declaration of fair competition, moment of silent prayer was set first. Also, the team from Tohoku (the most hardly hit area) was warmly welcomed in particular and students from Kobe supported to encourage them because in this situation their own supports would not be able to come all the way from north eastern Japan to Kobe in western Japan.
National professional baseball tournament is also to be held like previous years but there had been a great discussion as to the date of the start and the time of the day being played to avoid night games, considering the situation in which saving electricity to minimize blackout is a critical issue.
A few “ohanami” spots famous for beauty of cherry blossoms decided to hold events and night time lightening shows to entertain and encourage people including victims. Such examples include Maruyama Koen Park in Kyoto.
3. What is the opinion of the Japanese people about “jishuku”?
Their opinion is divided between for and against “jishuku”. The Governor of Tokyo is for the “jishuku”, and a popular female minister responsible for renewal for administration is against “jishuku”. Both are very popular among media and the general public.
And, when Nikkei, a leading newspaper specialized in business and economy implemented a survey on April 5 and 6 about pros and cons of “jishuku” in which 4,823 people responded, 78% answered that currently it is too excessive and “consumption to assist economic recovery of Tohoku is necessary”.
1) People against (excessive) “jishuku”
What they meant is consumption directly contributing to recovery of the devastated area. For example, this is by proactively goods made in Tohoku, which are famous for high level rice, Japanese sake and many others, because it would have similar value with relief aid. Some others said that “everyone to proactively buy things and all business organizations could donate 1% of sales as relief aid” and “everyone could consume without feeling guilty if consumption tax is implemented to be used exclusively for issues related to the disaster”.
Some other comments from people who feels current “jishuku” is excess include “jishuku is not to be obligated (but done voluntarily)” and “jishuku and saving electricity/being frugal needs to be considered as something completely different”.
2) People in favour of “jishuku” and people who say “jishuku” cannot be avoided for economic reasons
It seems many of these people do not feel like enjoying entertainment if they think of victims in the devastated area. There was a comment such as “it may be necessary to have a certain period of “jishuku” nationwide so that everyone would remember the historic disaster”.
Some others seriously said that “jishuku” cannot be avoided due to economic reasons, worrying about their future, which implies secondary and thirdly negative effect of the disaster is spreading. Such people said that “In this situation surely the annual income will be reduced while tax will be increased”, “Our business has been shrinking since the outbreak of the disaster. It is quite possible that first comes overtime work cut followed by salary cut and then restructuring. Tax increase for recovery from the disaster is also quite possible. In such a situation how could you sped your money (on entertainment)?
3. How “jishuku” is better handled
Even people who are not directly affected by the disaster, they may well be forced to “jishuku” i.e. cut on spending for economic reasons as some commented in the survey; however, without sufficient consumer spending, the total economy would remain stagnant although there might be a little stimulant in general construction industry from reconstruction of social infrastructure (e.g. housing, roads, facilities).
What can be done is build consensus to hold events among the industry members then hold events saying that such consensus is formed in inviting people so that they will not feel guilty to participate in the events. This would require good communication among the industry members. This would be difficult normally because many organizations would like to keep their initiatives/plan secret; however, according to Naito, organizations have been exchanging information in depth even among rivals regarding countermeasure to aftermath of the disaster.
In addition, events could be tailored so that it could contribute to relief aids. Charity concerts, fund raising at the events, moment of silent prayers to the devastated area and victims, and other consideration are important.
Naito introduces a message from a business owner of Japanese sake in Tohoku at the end of his article, which is “please do not “jishuku” too much, but instead support us by enjoying our Tohoku sake”.
Excessive “jishuku” stagnates economy and this means lowing down of recovery and reconstruction. We all need to do what we can; save electricity, be frugal while consume appropriately and work hard, all to make our ends meet and keep the economy going, the requirement for recovery and reconstruction.
Resources:-
Naito, Ko (March 30, 2011) Truth of “jishuku of consumption” – countermeasures for minimizing “the fourth disaster” (In Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/money/20110329/219215/?P=1
Naito, Ko (April 7, 2011) People who stand against “consumption jishuku” – Let’s do what we can if time allows (In Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/money/20110406/219332/?P=1
Takagi, Koji (April 7, 2011) Japanese companies together cancelled ceremony welcoming new graduates and postponed welcoming parties – When should “jishuku” mood be eliminated when such mood has been spreading? (In Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11783
Nikkei (April 7, 2011) 78% responded “jishuku” is too much and “consumption to support” necessary – From survey (In Japanese)
http://www.nikkei.com/life/simple/article/g=96958A90889DE0E4E0E4E4E2E3E2E2E4E2E6E0E2E3E3E2E2E2E2E2E2;dg=1;q=F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2F2;p=9694E3E6E2E4E0E2E3E2E4EAE1E3
2011年3月26日土曜日
How Japan Can Make the Third Miracle from the Disaster
Osaka - Saturday, March 26, 2011
Japan has made miracles twice in its history. The first one is of 140 years ago, of Meiji Revolution in which after almost 300 years of isolation from the rest of the world of the Edo period Japan opened the door to the rest of the world and made drastic innovation to realize revolution. The second one is of 70 years ago, of reconstruction from the defeat of World War II in which atomic bomb was dropped to Hiroshima and Nagaski and it was believed that the country would not be able to revive. But with support from the U.S. and other countries, Japan, the only country ever to suffer an atomic attack, managed to recover and reconstruct, to realize substantial economic growth to become the second biggest economy.
What Dr. Neal calls “natech” (“Na”ture + “Tech”nology combined) disaster in the interviewed introduced in the previous article How the World and Japan Should Handle Japan Disaster is the worst disaster since the World War II defeat. Recovery has started and it is reported in media that the world is surprised at the speed to rebuilding of roads in Sendai; however, and recovery and reconstruction from the “natech” disaster is like making the two previous miracles, as mentioned in an article issued on March 25, of Nikkei, the Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy.
Following the previous article Japan Disaster to Hit Global and Japanese Economy in which she outlined the size of the affect of the disaster, the author would like to outline what needs to be done to make the third miracle, of recovery and “creation” of a new country, to conclude her (first) series of blog articles about the disaster.
1. First and foremost, rescue people who are still missing
As of 9:00 on March 24, as announced by the National Police Agency and reported by Nikkei, 9,811 people are dead, 17,541 are missing, and 2,779 are injured. It is two weeks from the earthquake and tsunami and the rate of survival is extremely low, but a woman of 80 years old and her grandchild survived for 9 days and were rescued. Some cities/villages are totally swept out by tsunami and wreckage remains in wide a scope of areas so rescuing the remaining people missing is taking time. However, rescue needs to be proceeded.
2. Immediate recovery of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant is critical
It goes without saying that immediate recovery of Fukushima nuclear plant is inevitable to avoid further negative effects on lives of residents in the area, on agriculture and fishery of the area and prefectures near by, on water supply to regions including Kanto (e.g. Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama), and on global environment. Engineers of Tepco have been doing everything they can for recovery in extremely tough situation as reported in online news on March 25 in website of Asahi, a major Japanese newspaper, based on the information from wives of the engineers; very little time to sleep and when they sleep they do so sitting on chairs, food is only biscuits with minerals, and so forth.
3. Smooth recovery of electricity supply in Kanto area is inevitable
Halt of Fukushima nuclear plant led to shortage of electricity supply in Kanto area and thus “planned” blackout has been ongoing, which is likely to continue for months. This has been causing many problems in the society, business and people’s everyday lives, as mentioned in the previous article The Reality of Japan Disaster – Affecting Nationwide. Without recovery of electricity supply, people’s lives would not return to what it was before the disaster, nor business activities which is the source of economy and capital necessary for reconstruction.
Organizations and individuals are making upmost efforts to save energy to avoid “planned” blackout but the experts estimated that blackouts cannot be avoided in summer and winter, when electricity usage reaches at the peak due to use of air conditioning. Some experts also point out that transferring electricity from Kansai (western Japan) and Hokkaido (northern island) to Kanto would be extremely limited because of technical reasons for Kansai and need to cross over sea for Hokkaido.
Noguchi proposes that such measures as immediately reviewing jacking up of basic rate of electricity and fetching down amperage under contract could avoid “planned” blackout until the end of April. However, he also says that even such measures would not be sufficient to avoid “planned” blackout in summer. Other experts and the government are pursuing other measures such as implementation of summer time.
After recovery of the plant, the government and energy supply related parties would need to reconsider total energy supply system. The key concept in reconsideration would be diversification of energy supply to minimize risk of energy supply shortage, and pursuing green and safe energy.
4. Of course, reconstruction of lifeline and social infrastructure is a big issue
Since everything is destroyed including local government office of many cities even if the cities were not 100% swept away by the tsunami, reconstruction of social infrastructure including roads, public and commercial facilities, housing, energy and water supply is necessary. It is just like creating new cities/prefectures from scratch.
This process would not necessarily mean reconstructing exactly what it used to be. Process needs to be that of determining what to recover/leverage and what to change/create to improve/eliminate the weaknesses the Tohoku and Japan had before the disaster. In fact, this could be a great opportunity to eliminate weakness and correct “contradictions” the country had and transform the total economic, industrial and social structures.
As in the case of Kobe earthquake in 1995, the region was condensed in terms of both population and business activity sites thus it was quite logical to reconstruct as what is used to be. However, Tohoku in this case is quite different, how the region geographically extends and how the structure of the industry extends.
Moreover, as pointed out by Nikkei in its article issued on March 25, the “natech” disaster shed light upon the contradictions and weaknesses of Japan system. They are the fact that the regions in which functions/systems of healthcare, government and lives are dispersed when the country was facing decreasing and aging population and the reality that the country operation and management have been centralized in Tokyo when the electricity supply of Tokyo relied from local regions.
5. Companies/organizations and people need to get back to work as soon as possible
Nikkei online article reported on March 25 that more than 1,000 listed companies in Japan are affected by the disaster, large or small. The most affected are in general of automotive and electronic manufactures because many of they have core plants in Tohoku area and they have been unable to operate. Such plants include those that produce and supply core components to worldwide market and already is pointed out by worldwide media that it would affect many global companies operating outside Japan.
Of course, smooth reconstruction already mentioned to reconstruct global supply chain network as Kishi mentions would be the requirement.
5. And, consumption is also a requirement to get everything going
Events and entertainments are currently restrained voluntarily but excessive voluntary restraints would be a negative factor for smooth recovery. General construction industry is likely to benefit from reconstruction as long as the government would give clear direction and support the industry; however, construction industry alone cannot drive economic maintenance and growth. Consumer spending is a requirement to drive economy and thus it is wise not to excessively restraint events, entertainments and so forth. This was pointed out and discussed in a few recent online articles in Japan’s leading business media.
6. The author’s final thoughts – The country and its citizens are strong enough to make the third miracle a reality
It is true that people suffered directly and indirectly from the disaster were first shocked and was at a loss what to do but are now determined to do what they can and actually started to take proactive actions to recover and reconstruct. The author believes that the country and its people are strong enough to make the third miracle a reality. Japan cannot possibly remain to be a big burden of the international community because of the disaster.
In fact, the recovery and reconstruction from the “natech” disaster are expected to be converted to an opportunity of eliminating the weaknesses and contradictions the country had, transform the total structure of society, economy and industry. In other words, this is to be a catalyst the country needed to boost its economy for decades.
Last but not least, the author would like to introduce an idea she happened to listen to and was extremely was compassionate, which was introduced in Kansai local TV evening news on March 25 in which they introduced some ideas of some audience of what people in Kansai can do now to help the east, suffering directly from the disaster. The author believes that this is the mindset and behaviour that we all need to have, together with integrity, flexibility and teamwork/collaboration, and that the fact that a normal citizen has courage to share such mindset and behaviour indicates that the country and its citizen have the strengths of realizing the third miracle to create a new country, although it might be a long journey.
It is that every individuals need to unleash their own skills, competencies and strengths in this urgent situation. For example, entertainers focus on entertaining people and athletes playing games to perform well, to encourage and inspire people including those in the devastated area and make them feel better. Of course, business person are to focus on their business while doing what they can to help the people in need, and rescuers health care experts in the devastated area, each people playing an active role and fulfilling his/her mission.
References:-
Kishi, Hiroyuki (March 18, 2011) Discussion on economy management after rebuilt of Japan (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11538
Kishi, Hiroyuki (March 25, 2011) Anxiety of hollow out of eastern Japan attributing to the natural disaster and nuclear plant issue and future of Japanese economy (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11613
Koya, Tomoyuki (March 17, 2011) Three crisis that companies suffer from the disaster – resource crisis, demand crisis and mind crisis (in Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/manage/20110316/219006/
Noguchi, Yukio (March 22, 2011) Reviewing basic rate of electricity for assumed electricity shortage this coming summer has much meaning (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11597
Resources:-
The natech (nature and technology) disaster is the most severe since the World War II and the economic loss from the disaster, direct and indirect combined, is enormous. However, Japan has made two miracles in its history, Meiji Revolution and recovery/reconstruction from World War II and the country and its citizen are strong enough to make the third miracle. The disaster is expected to be converted to an opportunity to transform total structure of society, economy and industry, to create a new country, thus a catalyst the country needed for decades to boost its economy.
Japan has made miracles twice in its history. The first one is of 140 years ago, of Meiji Revolution in which after almost 300 years of isolation from the rest of the world of the Edo period Japan opened the door to the rest of the world and made drastic innovation to realize revolution. The second one is of 70 years ago, of reconstruction from the defeat of World War II in which atomic bomb was dropped to Hiroshima and Nagaski and it was believed that the country would not be able to revive. But with support from the U.S. and other countries, Japan, the only country ever to suffer an atomic attack, managed to recover and reconstruct, to realize substantial economic growth to become the second biggest economy.
What Dr. Neal calls “natech” (“Na”ture + “Tech”nology combined) disaster in the interviewed introduced in the previous article How the World and Japan Should Handle Japan Disaster is the worst disaster since the World War II defeat. Recovery has started and it is reported in media that the world is surprised at the speed to rebuilding of roads in Sendai; however, and recovery and reconstruction from the “natech” disaster is like making the two previous miracles, as mentioned in an article issued on March 25, of Nikkei, the Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy.
Following the previous article Japan Disaster to Hit Global and Japanese Economy in which she outlined the size of the affect of the disaster, the author would like to outline what needs to be done to make the third miracle, of recovery and “creation” of a new country, to conclude her (first) series of blog articles about the disaster.
1. First and foremost, rescue people who are still missing
As of 9:00 on March 24, as announced by the National Police Agency and reported by Nikkei, 9,811 people are dead, 17,541 are missing, and 2,779 are injured. It is two weeks from the earthquake and tsunami and the rate of survival is extremely low, but a woman of 80 years old and her grandchild survived for 9 days and were rescued. Some cities/villages are totally swept out by tsunami and wreckage remains in wide a scope of areas so rescuing the remaining people missing is taking time. However, rescue needs to be proceeded.
2. Immediate recovery of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant is critical
It goes without saying that immediate recovery of Fukushima nuclear plant is inevitable to avoid further negative effects on lives of residents in the area, on agriculture and fishery of the area and prefectures near by, on water supply to regions including Kanto (e.g. Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama), and on global environment. Engineers of Tepco have been doing everything they can for recovery in extremely tough situation as reported in online news on March 25 in website of Asahi, a major Japanese newspaper, based on the information from wives of the engineers; very little time to sleep and when they sleep they do so sitting on chairs, food is only biscuits with minerals, and so forth.
3. Smooth recovery of electricity supply in Kanto area is inevitable
Halt of Fukushima nuclear plant led to shortage of electricity supply in Kanto area and thus “planned” blackout has been ongoing, which is likely to continue for months. This has been causing many problems in the society, business and people’s everyday lives, as mentioned in the previous article The Reality of Japan Disaster – Affecting Nationwide. Without recovery of electricity supply, people’s lives would not return to what it was before the disaster, nor business activities which is the source of economy and capital necessary for reconstruction.
Organizations and individuals are making upmost efforts to save energy to avoid “planned” blackout but the experts estimated that blackouts cannot be avoided in summer and winter, when electricity usage reaches at the peak due to use of air conditioning. Some experts also point out that transferring electricity from Kansai (western Japan) and Hokkaido (northern island) to Kanto would be extremely limited because of technical reasons for Kansai and need to cross over sea for Hokkaido.
Noguchi proposes that such measures as immediately reviewing jacking up of basic rate of electricity and fetching down amperage under contract could avoid “planned” blackout until the end of April. However, he also says that even such measures would not be sufficient to avoid “planned” blackout in summer. Other experts and the government are pursuing other measures such as implementation of summer time.
After recovery of the plant, the government and energy supply related parties would need to reconsider total energy supply system. The key concept in reconsideration would be diversification of energy supply to minimize risk of energy supply shortage, and pursuing green and safe energy.
4. Of course, reconstruction of lifeline and social infrastructure is a big issue
Since everything is destroyed including local government office of many cities even if the cities were not 100% swept away by the tsunami, reconstruction of social infrastructure including roads, public and commercial facilities, housing, energy and water supply is necessary. It is just like creating new cities/prefectures from scratch.
This process would not necessarily mean reconstructing exactly what it used to be. Process needs to be that of determining what to recover/leverage and what to change/create to improve/eliminate the weaknesses the Tohoku and Japan had before the disaster. In fact, this could be a great opportunity to eliminate weakness and correct “contradictions” the country had and transform the total economic, industrial and social structures.
As in the case of Kobe earthquake in 1995, the region was condensed in terms of both population and business activity sites thus it was quite logical to reconstruct as what is used to be. However, Tohoku in this case is quite different, how the region geographically extends and how the structure of the industry extends.
Moreover, as pointed out by Nikkei in its article issued on March 25, the “natech” disaster shed light upon the contradictions and weaknesses of Japan system. They are the fact that the regions in which functions/systems of healthcare, government and lives are dispersed when the country was facing decreasing and aging population and the reality that the country operation and management have been centralized in Tokyo when the electricity supply of Tokyo relied from local regions.
5. Companies/organizations and people need to get back to work as soon as possible
Nikkei online article reported on March 25 that more than 1,000 listed companies in Japan are affected by the disaster, large or small. The most affected are in general of automotive and electronic manufactures because many of they have core plants in Tohoku area and they have been unable to operate. Such plants include those that produce and supply core components to worldwide market and already is pointed out by worldwide media that it would affect many global companies operating outside Japan.
Of course, smooth reconstruction already mentioned to reconstruct global supply chain network as Kishi mentions would be the requirement.
5. And, consumption is also a requirement to get everything going
Events and entertainments are currently restrained voluntarily but excessive voluntary restraints would be a negative factor for smooth recovery. General construction industry is likely to benefit from reconstruction as long as the government would give clear direction and support the industry; however, construction industry alone cannot drive economic maintenance and growth. Consumer spending is a requirement to drive economy and thus it is wise not to excessively restraint events, entertainments and so forth. This was pointed out and discussed in a few recent online articles in Japan’s leading business media.
6. The author’s final thoughts – The country and its citizens are strong enough to make the third miracle a reality
It is true that people suffered directly and indirectly from the disaster were first shocked and was at a loss what to do but are now determined to do what they can and actually started to take proactive actions to recover and reconstruct. The author believes that the country and its people are strong enough to make the third miracle a reality. Japan cannot possibly remain to be a big burden of the international community because of the disaster.
In fact, the recovery and reconstruction from the “natech” disaster are expected to be converted to an opportunity of eliminating the weaknesses and contradictions the country had, transform the total structure of society, economy and industry. In other words, this is to be a catalyst the country needed to boost its economy for decades.
Last but not least, the author would like to introduce an idea she happened to listen to and was extremely was compassionate, which was introduced in Kansai local TV evening news on March 25 in which they introduced some ideas of some audience of what people in Kansai can do now to help the east, suffering directly from the disaster. The author believes that this is the mindset and behaviour that we all need to have, together with integrity, flexibility and teamwork/collaboration, and that the fact that a normal citizen has courage to share such mindset and behaviour indicates that the country and its citizen have the strengths of realizing the third miracle to create a new country, although it might be a long journey.
It is that every individuals need to unleash their own skills, competencies and strengths in this urgent situation. For example, entertainers focus on entertaining people and athletes playing games to perform well, to encourage and inspire people including those in the devastated area and make them feel better. Of course, business person are to focus on their business while doing what they can to help the people in need, and rescuers health care experts in the devastated area, each people playing an active role and fulfilling his/her mission.
References:-
Kishi, Hiroyuki (March 18, 2011) Discussion on economy management after rebuilt of Japan (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11538
Kishi, Hiroyuki (March 25, 2011) Anxiety of hollow out of eastern Japan attributing to the natural disaster and nuclear plant issue and future of Japanese economy (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11613
Koya, Tomoyuki (March 17, 2011) Three crisis that companies suffer from the disaster – resource crisis, demand crisis and mind crisis (in Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/manage/20110316/219006/
Noguchi, Yukio (March 22, 2011) Reviewing basic rate of electricity for assumed electricity shortage this coming summer has much meaning (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11597
Resources:-
The natech (nature and technology) disaster is the most severe since the World War II and the economic loss from the disaster, direct and indirect combined, is enormous. However, Japan has made two miracles in its history, Meiji Revolution and recovery/reconstruction from World War II and the country and its citizen are strong enough to make the third miracle. The disaster is expected to be converted to an opportunity to transform total structure of society, economy and industry, to create a new country, thus a catalyst the country needed for decades to boost its economy.
2011年3月24日木曜日
Japan Disaster to Hit Global and Japanese Economy
Osaka - Wednesday, March 23, 2011
Stock market immediately reacted to the disaster that hit Japan on March 11. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 6.4% extending a 6.2% loss on Monday, March 14 when the S&P 500 fell only 0.6%.
Following series of articles on the Japan Disaster, the latest one being How the World and Japan Should Handle Japan Disaster, the author would like to briefly explain the effect of the Japan disaster on economy, global and Japan, summarizing estimation and viewpoint reported by global and Japanese media.
The author feels it would give an idea of the size of the disaster in the long term affecting macro economy, and the urgency of the aid and recovery/reconstruction to minimize the negative effect on economy, global as well as Japan.
1. What is the possible effect on the Japanese economy?
Most media agree that the loss from the disaster is much larger than the Kobe earthquake in 1995, which was 1 billion yen. What makes the loss far larger than Kobe is the fact that the disaster completely destroyed lifeline and social infrastructure. For this reason, all media agree that the rebuild would require at least 5 years, which was what Kobe post-earthquake rebuilt required.
1) “Direct” loss
The estimations reported by most media of the “direct” loss from the disaster of the earthquake and the tsunami of the Tohoku region (north eastern Japan that the earthquake and tsunami hit hard on March 11) would fall in the range of 1.5 to 2.5 trillion yen. 2.5 trillion yen is equivalent to 4% of the economic output of the country in 2010, according to the World Bank.
Professor Sato of Hitotsubashi University estimated with 2 scenarios, one of 2.5 billion yen loss and another of 3.5 trillion yen loss. Loss of 2.5 trillion yen is only of Kanto area, and 3.5 trillion yen loss includes loss of other areas/prefectures severely been effected by the earthquake. Such prefectures include Shizuoka, Aichi, Mie, Wakayama and Kochi.
2）“Indirect” loss
This estimation mentioned above is called “direct” loss because it does not include “indirect” loss of the disaster. Possible indirect losses include the following. Such “indirect” losses are extremely difficult to estimate but would be huge, and it is quite likely that this would enlarge fiscal strain on Japan, when the ratio of debt to GDP already is 200%, compared to 90% in the U.S. according to Oliver.
(1) Loss from destruction of social infrastructure
This includes roads, electricity and water supply.
(2) Broken link of supply chain network among companies
This includes everything related to economic activities of companies such as purchasing/procurement, energy and water supply, distribution channel to supply products to the market.
This is to severely affect western Japan as well. Today on March 23 JR West announced that it will drastically reduce trains on service from April because they cannot obtain components necessary in maintenance. Such components are made in plants in Tohoku area (Fukushima) and the plants are unable to operate.
(3) Loss from the Fukushima nuclear plant issue
This includes many possible losses such as the following.
(i) People evacuating from (east) Japan meaning negative effect on tourism, and many events being cancelled meaning negative effect on consumer spending..
(ii) Contamination making agriculture and fishery products unsuitable to ship and consume. This would likely to have direct impact on domestic food supply as well as international trade. This means loss of agriculture and fishery businesses and some business owners may well be forced to go bankrupt. The bad reputation could further enlarge loss.
(4) Electricity shortage
This is not only in Kanto region. In fact, this is a serious issue already in Kanto (e.g. Tokyo, Kanagawa/Yokoyama, Chiba, Saitama) leading to “planned” blackout. This is an enormous negative factor for business in all industry
2. What is the possible effect on global economy?
There seem to be different perspectives on the effect on global economy. There are some people such as Oliver, although agree that the loss from the disaster is huge on Japan, say that global economy should not be hardly hit by the Japan disaster because the GDP of Japan in the world economy is limited.
However, others say that the Japan disaster could hit global economy hard. This is because there have been many core plants of automotives (e.g. of Japan big 3 automobile companies) and electronics including plants that have been manufacturing core components of mobile phones that such global companies as Nokia and Samsung has been relying on. It was soon reported in multiple western media that such global companies of consumer electronics are to be hit hard and although they will try to acquire components from other sources it would be extremely difficult for them to come up with good options.
The World Bank predicted in a separate report that East Asia would be affected. They say that in the immediate future the biggest impact will be in terms of trade and finance. The World Bank report also says that the other worrying factor for the region is that about one quarter of East Asia’s log-term debt is dominated in yen. For China it is about 8% but for Thailand it is about 60%. Thus the report points out that a 1% appreciation in the Japanese yen translated into about 250 million USD increase in annual debt servicing on the yen-dominated assts held by the nations.
3. The author’s final thoughts
The author feels there are other possible negative effects on global economy if Japan, with world class technology in many fields such as environment that the world requires today, struggles too much in reconstruction.
Japan has recovered from various disasters in its history, from many major earthquake (e.g. of Kanto in 1929, of Kobe in 1995) and from World War II and the author believes it can recover again, with the help from the international community as well as its citizens. This is probably another “test for toughness to survive”, as Fingleton says.
By overcoming what Koya says “resource crisis, demand crisis, and mind crisis” of the disaster, Japan needs to pass the test for toughness to survive, and transform the reconstruction to, what Rosembush words as “growth catalyst that Japan needed for decades”.
References:-
BBC News (March 21, 2011)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12802193
CNNMoney.com staff (March 15, 2011) Tokyo stocks plummet as crisis deepens CNNMoney.com staff http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/14/markets/japan_world_markets_tuesday/index.htm?section=money_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_topstories+%28Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Twitter
Fingleton, Eamonn (March 15, 2011) Broken Links - How much will the Japan quake hurt the global economy? http://www.tnr.com/article/85236/japan-earthquake-tsunami-industry-economy
Isidore, Chris (March 14, 2011) Will global economy be hit by Japan? http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/14/news/international/japan_earthquake_tsunami_economic_impact/index.htm
Koya, Tomoyuki (March 17, 2011) Three crisis that companies suffer from the disaster – resource crisis, demand crisis and mind crisis (in Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/manage/20110316/219006/
Los Angeles Time (March 15, 2011) Japan quake likely to affect business globally http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-japan-business-20110315,0,2713425.story?track=rss
Nikkei (March 23, 2011) Loss from the Japan earthquake to total 15-25 billion yen, more than the loss from Kobe earthquake that was 10 billion, according to the estimation of the Japanese government (in Japanese) http://www.nikkei.com/news/headline/article/g=96958A9C93819481E0E0E2E1838DE0E0E2E1E0E2E3E39F9FEAE2E2E2
Oliver, Shane (March 15, 2011) Global Economy should not be badly hit by Japan’s heartbreaking tsunami
http://www.smartcompany.com.au/economy/20110315-global-economy-should-not-be-badly-hit-by-japan-s-heartbreaking-tsunami-oliver.html
Rosenbush, Steve (March 15, 2011) How Japan Earthquake Will Impact Global Economy
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/rss/Articles/2787087/How-Japan-Earthquake-Will-Impact-Global-Economy.html?p=1
Reuters (March 16, 2011) Japan’s rebuilding needs at least 5 years (in Japanese) http://jp.reuters.com/article/topNews/idJPJAPAN-20060120110316
Sakai, Koichi (March 18, 2011) In 10 years Japan to become an attractive country to invest in, according to a famous U.S. investor (in Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/manage/20110317/219023/
Sato, Motohiro (March 15, 2011) Overview of economic loss from the Japan disaster (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11498
Takenaka, Heizo (March 16, 2011) Huge disaster when the economy was about to recover (in Japanese)
http://www.nikkei.com/biz/editorial/article/g=96958A9C93819499E3E6E2E2998DE3E6E2E1E0E2E3E3E2E2E2E2E2E2;p=9694E2E4E3E2E0E2E3E2EBE4E1E6
Stock market immediately reacted to the disaster that hit Japan on March 11. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index fell 6.4% extending a 6.2% loss on Monday, March 14 when the S&P 500 fell only 0.6%.
Following series of articles on the Japan Disaster, the latest one being How the World and Japan Should Handle Japan Disaster, the author would like to briefly explain the effect of the Japan disaster on economy, global and Japan, summarizing estimation and viewpoint reported by global and Japanese media.
The author feels it would give an idea of the size of the disaster in the long term affecting macro economy, and the urgency of the aid and recovery/reconstruction to minimize the negative effect on economy, global as well as Japan.
1. What is the possible effect on the Japanese economy?
Most media agree that the loss from the disaster is much larger than the Kobe earthquake in 1995, which was 1 billion yen. What makes the loss far larger than Kobe is the fact that the disaster completely destroyed lifeline and social infrastructure. For this reason, all media agree that the rebuild would require at least 5 years, which was what Kobe post-earthquake rebuilt required.
1) “Direct” loss
The estimations reported by most media of the “direct” loss from the disaster of the earthquake and the tsunami of the Tohoku region (north eastern Japan that the earthquake and tsunami hit hard on March 11) would fall in the range of 1.5 to 2.5 trillion yen. 2.5 trillion yen is equivalent to 4% of the economic output of the country in 2010, according to the World Bank.
Professor Sato of Hitotsubashi University estimated with 2 scenarios, one of 2.5 billion yen loss and another of 3.5 trillion yen loss. Loss of 2.5 trillion yen is only of Kanto area, and 3.5 trillion yen loss includes loss of other areas/prefectures severely been effected by the earthquake. Such prefectures include Shizuoka, Aichi, Mie, Wakayama and Kochi.
2）“Indirect” loss
This estimation mentioned above is called “direct” loss because it does not include “indirect” loss of the disaster. Possible indirect losses include the following. Such “indirect” losses are extremely difficult to estimate but would be huge, and it is quite likely that this would enlarge fiscal strain on Japan, when the ratio of debt to GDP already is 200%, compared to 90% in the U.S. according to Oliver.
(1) Loss from destruction of social infrastructure
This includes roads, electricity and water supply.
(2) Broken link of supply chain network among companies
This includes everything related to economic activities of companies such as purchasing/procurement, energy and water supply, distribution channel to supply products to the market.
This is to severely affect western Japan as well. Today on March 23 JR West announced that it will drastically reduce trains on service from April because they cannot obtain components necessary in maintenance. Such components are made in plants in Tohoku area (Fukushima) and the plants are unable to operate.
(3) Loss from the Fukushima nuclear plant issue
This includes many possible losses such as the following.
(i) People evacuating from (east) Japan meaning negative effect on tourism, and many events being cancelled meaning negative effect on consumer spending..
(ii) Contamination making agriculture and fishery products unsuitable to ship and consume. This would likely to have direct impact on domestic food supply as well as international trade. This means loss of agriculture and fishery businesses and some business owners may well be forced to go bankrupt. The bad reputation could further enlarge loss.
(4) Electricity shortage
This is not only in Kanto region. In fact, this is a serious issue already in Kanto (e.g. Tokyo, Kanagawa/Yokoyama, Chiba, Saitama) leading to “planned” blackout. This is an enormous negative factor for business in all industry
2. What is the possible effect on global economy?
There seem to be different perspectives on the effect on global economy. There are some people such as Oliver, although agree that the loss from the disaster is huge on Japan, say that global economy should not be hardly hit by the Japan disaster because the GDP of Japan in the world economy is limited.
However, others say that the Japan disaster could hit global economy hard. This is because there have been many core plants of automotives (e.g. of Japan big 3 automobile companies) and electronics including plants that have been manufacturing core components of mobile phones that such global companies as Nokia and Samsung has been relying on. It was soon reported in multiple western media that such global companies of consumer electronics are to be hit hard and although they will try to acquire components from other sources it would be extremely difficult for them to come up with good options.
The World Bank predicted in a separate report that East Asia would be affected. They say that in the immediate future the biggest impact will be in terms of trade and finance. The World Bank report also says that the other worrying factor for the region is that about one quarter of East Asia’s log-term debt is dominated in yen. For China it is about 8% but for Thailand it is about 60%. Thus the report points out that a 1% appreciation in the Japanese yen translated into about 250 million USD increase in annual debt servicing on the yen-dominated assts held by the nations.
3. The author’s final thoughts
The author feels there are other possible negative effects on global economy if Japan, with world class technology in many fields such as environment that the world requires today, struggles too much in reconstruction.
Japan has recovered from various disasters in its history, from many major earthquake (e.g. of Kanto in 1929, of Kobe in 1995) and from World War II and the author believes it can recover again, with the help from the international community as well as its citizens. This is probably another “test for toughness to survive”, as Fingleton says.
By overcoming what Koya says “resource crisis, demand crisis, and mind crisis” of the disaster, Japan needs to pass the test for toughness to survive, and transform the reconstruction to, what Rosembush words as “growth catalyst that Japan needed for decades”.
References:-
BBC News (March 21, 2011)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12802193
CNNMoney.com staff (March 15, 2011) Tokyo stocks plummet as crisis deepens CNNMoney.com staff http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/14/markets/japan_world_markets_tuesday/index.htm?section=money_topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_topstories+%28Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Twitter
Fingleton, Eamonn (March 15, 2011) Broken Links - How much will the Japan quake hurt the global economy? http://www.tnr.com/article/85236/japan-earthquake-tsunami-industry-economy
Isidore, Chris (March 14, 2011) Will global economy be hit by Japan? http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/14/news/international/japan_earthquake_tsunami_economic_impact/index.htm
Koya, Tomoyuki (March 17, 2011) Three crisis that companies suffer from the disaster – resource crisis, demand crisis and mind crisis (in Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/manage/20110316/219006/
Los Angeles Time (March 15, 2011) Japan quake likely to affect business globally http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-japan-business-20110315,0,2713425.story?track=rss
Nikkei (March 23, 2011) Loss from the Japan earthquake to total 15-25 billion yen, more than the loss from Kobe earthquake that was 10 billion, according to the estimation of the Japanese government (in Japanese) http://www.nikkei.com/news/headline/article/g=96958A9C93819481E0E0E2E1838DE0E0E2E1E0E2E3E39F9FEAE2E2E2
Oliver, Shane (March 15, 2011) Global Economy should not be badly hit by Japan’s heartbreaking tsunami
http://www.smartcompany.com.au/economy/20110315-global-economy-should-not-be-badly-hit-by-japan-s-heartbreaking-tsunami-oliver.html
Rosenbush, Steve (March 15, 2011) How Japan Earthquake Will Impact Global Economy
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/rss/Articles/2787087/How-Japan-Earthquake-Will-Impact-Global-Economy.html?p=1
Reuters (March 16, 2011) Japan’s rebuilding needs at least 5 years (in Japanese) http://jp.reuters.com/article/topNews/idJPJAPAN-20060120110316
Sakai, Koichi (March 18, 2011) In 10 years Japan to become an attractive country to invest in, according to a famous U.S. investor (in Japanese)
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/manage/20110317/219023/
Sato, Motohiro (March 15, 2011) Overview of economic loss from the Japan disaster (in Japanese)
http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11498
Takenaka, Heizo (March 16, 2011) Huge disaster when the economy was about to recover (in Japanese)
http://www.nikkei.com/biz/editorial/article/g=96958A9C93819499E3E6E2E2998DE3E6E2E1E0E2E3E3E2E2E2E2E2E2;p=9694E2E4E3E2E0E2E3E2EBE4E1E6
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