2010年11月28日日曜日

High Yen Slashes Profitability of Japanese Companies - The Reality

Osaka – Sunday, November 28, 2010




In one of the previous article "Negative Effects of High Yen on Japan – The Reality" the author explained the mechanism of how high yen leads to profitability decrease of export-oriented Japanese companies, which constitutes the majority of Japanese companies operating globally such as of automobiles and consumer electronics.



In this article, the author would like to introduce such cases in more depth, based on a recent article of Nikkei, Japanese leading newspaper specialized in business and economy, to prove that high yen has significance negative effect on Japanese companies of the industries that are usually regarded as being globally competitive.



1. How high yen has cut profitability of Japanese manufacturers?






1) Automobile



The profitability decrease for fiscal year ending March 2011 of leading 7 automobile companies (including Toyota, Nissan and Honda), is estimated to total as much as 81.6 billion yen, when compared with total profit calculated with the exchange rate of 85 yen per USD, which was the rate used in their original estimation. This amount is equivalent to one third of the profit that should have been generated if there had not been deterioration in the exchange rate.



2) Rubber (Yokoyama Rubber Co. Ltd.)



Yokoyama Rubber business in Russia suffered from more than 1 billion exchange-rate loss despite their strong business in Russia. Their winter tires of Yokohama Rubber is popular in Russia and their business in Russia has been growing steadily in the first half of fiscal year 2010 in local currency base. However, with high yen and low ruble, their revenue decreased when converted to yen, resulting in over 1 billion exchange-rate loss.



3) Mechatronics (Shibaura Mechatronics Corporation)



In the case of Shibaura Mechatroonics Corporation, the financial performance deteriorated due to high yen verses low won. Low won made their Korea competitors strong in price competitiveness and deprived of their business and market share. As a result, the order that Shibaura Mechatronics received in the first half of 2010 was 40% less that their original plan.



2. To what degree the yen appreciated this year?



The yen appreciated by over 10% in only a year. It was around 93 yen per USD in average in fiscal year 2009. However, in the first has of this year the yen drastically appreciated against almost all currencies, and the yen has been hovering 80-83 yen per USD this year, which is around 10 yen or more per USD higher this year than last year. This is the primary factor for profitability reduction of Japanese companies.



3. At which high yen level would make Japanese companies in the red?



A Japanese research institute estimates that overall manufacturers would turn to red when the yen gets as high as 65 yen per USD. However, even in the current level (i.e. 80-83 yen per USD), many companies are suffering from balancing revenue and employment in Japan.



Net profit for the latter half of 2010 of Shinko Electric Industrial, would be almost zero at the level of 80 yen per USD. IC package for MPU (Micro Processing Unit), their major product, is of high value added products of many SKUs each with little volume. For this reason, it is difficult for them to shift their production to overseas, which is the first solution adopted by Japanese companies to overcome high yen.



4. What would be the primary factor that determines where the Japanese companies invest in the future?



It would be the foreign exchange rage, i.e. how yen is high or low against other major currencies. The fact that more companies including Nissan have decided to shift their production to overseas is the evidence.



Even Tokyo Electron Ltd. that had kept to their policy of manufacturing in Japan to avoid outflow of their technologies, decided to shift their production to overseas this October at last, because of the high yen. They will construct a production plant for producing LCD panel manufacturing equipment in China with the objective of cost reduction and of benefiting from growing China demand.



Asia is now not only production site but also has grown to a major consumption market. Investment environment also has improved and thus the hurdle for Japanese companies to decide shifting to Asia has drastically lowered.



5. How many people would become unemployed in Japan when production is shifted to overseas?



If Tokyo Electron mentioned above should shift their production to overseas, their current employment of their 4000 factory workers in Japan would become unemployed.



And, Toyota estimates that total of 120,000 people (inside and outside Toyota) in Japan would lose their job if their production of 1 million cars per year, which is equivalent to approximately one third of their total Japan domestic production, is to be shifted to overseas. This is equivalent to approximately 1.7 times that of Toyota employees (non-consolidated). A Toyota executive said in their recent financial performance announcement that the present currency level is above the competitiveness of Japan economy, at least of Toyota.

2010年11月23日火曜日

Positive Effects of High Yen on Japan – Theory and Reality

Osaka – Tuesday, November 23, 2010




Yen had been hovering at the level of 80-82 yen per USD for quite a while, has depreciated a little hovering 83-83.5 yen per USD since the recent G20 held in Korea, but is still a serious issue in Japan. Taking this opportunity, the author discussed possible negatives effects of high yen on Japan in the previous article

Negative Effects of High Yen on Japan – The Reality



In this article, she would like to discuss on the positive ones in theory and the reality.



The conclusion is that there seem to be more negative effectives than the positive ones. Also, the possible positive effects have not all resulted in positive effects as expected/in theory because of the characteristics of the positive effects and other negative factors such as worldwide abnormal weather. As a result, the limited positive effects have been traded off with such negative factors. Therefore in total, negative effects exceed positive effects, and thus the result is ongoing sluggish economy.



1. Decrease in price of imported products






1) Theory



In theory, price of imported products should drop unless the wholesalers and/or retailers increase their margin. This is why in high yen times, there are usually bargains reducing benefits of high yen by retailers, with the objective of stimulating consumer spending leading to boost in their sales and growth in their businesses.



Also, since Japan depends most of its agricultural products and other household goods on import, high yen should mean decrease in total household expense.



2) Reality






(1) As theory



Recently in a TV programme, bargains reducing high yen were featured. A case of Nitori Co. Ltd, a company that does business in student desks, Japanese traditional school bags etc. imports 90% or more of their products from overseas and therefore additional 900 million yen profit is generated for every appreciated 1 yen per USD. Taking the opportunity of the recent high yen, Nitori has been slashing the retail price of their products by 10-30% to boost their sales. Moreover, according to their TVCF that went on the air this morning they have been additionally slashing their prices since October 30 by 15-40% to further boost their business, together with launching new products for Christmas business.



Another case featured was of a department store. Most of their products are imported and they also were trying to boost their sales by bargains reducing benefits of high yen.



(2) Not as theory



The overall household spending does not seem to have decreased and most household do not truly realize the benefit of high yen. Possible reasons for this are the following:-



a) Imported products with lower price in high yen targets limited customer segment



Most imported products whose price has dropped are of luxury products (e.g. branded products such as of Chanel, Louis Vuitton, Tiffany) and products that are not of daily necessities like that of Nitori.



This means it is mostly the rich people who can afford luxury products that benefit from high yen. Other possible people who benefit from high yen are those who need to buy products of Nitori business because their children have reached such an age, and who can afford to additionally buy non-daily necessities. Such people are minority of the total Japanese citizens. For this reason, bargains reducing benefits of high yen on total consumer spending is limited.



b) Prices of agricultural products has not dropped under high yen



Prices of imported daily necessities such as agricultural products have not dropped despite the high yen. This is because of poor harvesting due to abnormal climate worldwide, such as poor harvesting of wheat in Russia, vegetables in Australia and the U.S. Thus, decrease in yield of such products has traded off the benefits of high yen.



2. Boost in tourism business (tourists from Japan to overseas)



(1) Theory



In theory, more Japanese people would travel abroad leveraging the benefits of high yen, meaning boost in overseas tourism business. This is because under high yen, with the same amount of money in yen, people can buy more products abroad so high yen would be an incentive for them to travel abroad, buy products and bring them back to Japan and/or spend money abroad in other ways such as enjoying services.



(2) Reality



Tourism industry revenue has not increased as much as expected. This can be due to the fact that with ongoing sluggish economy and decrease in average income, it is only the limited rich people who can truly enjoy the benefit of high hen in tourism, and the majority of the Japanese cannot afford to travel abroad as in strong economy.

2010年11月14日日曜日

Negative Effects of High Yen on Japan – The Reality

Osaka – Sunday, November 13, 2010




High yen, hovering at the level of 80 – 85 yen per USD, was what export-oriented Japanese companies suffered from around 1995, and what made many of them shift some of their production to other countries of Asia. Yen has been hovering again at the level of 80-82 yen per USD for quite a while now when many of the Japanese companies are said to have originally made their made business plan at the exchange rate 87 – 95 yen per USD and therefore has been a serious issue in Japan.



Taking this opportunity, the author would like to discuss to clarify possible effects of high yen on Japan, focusing on the negative ones in this article, and positive ones in the upcoming article.



1. Profitability decrease of export-oriented Japanese companies



High yen directly hit profitability of export-oriented Japanese companies, when majority of the major Japanese companies such as Toyota, Sony and Panasonic to name just a few are such companies.



In the case of “made in Japan” products that are exported, high yen means decrease in gross margin because the total cost remains almost the same while the sales price in the market would be cut when converted to yen. If raw materials are imported their cost would be lower but it is the production cost accrued in Japan verses the sales price that is the primary determinant of gross margin.



For this reason, high yen is one of the reasons for slow in revenue and profit recovery of many of the Japanese companies compared to their western and Korean counterparts, as mentioned in the previous article "Japan Stagnates in Stock Market Recovery Unlike Worldwide – Why?"



According to the articles dated November 6 by Nikkei, Japanese leading newspaper specialized in business economy, the recovery rate for major Japanese companies fall behind those of western counterparts. Even Mitsubishi Trading that is #1 in the profit recovery, profit is 90% of that of pre-worldwide crisis. Panasonic is just below 50% and for Komatsu strong in Asia business is 60%.



Toyota’s case is probably one of the good examples to understand how high yen is negatively affective company’s profitability, whose profit remains as little as less than 20% of that of pre-worldwide crisis. According to Nikkei, for Apr-Sep 2010, Toyota, that was in negative by 137 billion yen for Apr-Sept 2009, has managed to turn back go black being in positive by 323 billion yen. This attributes to positive factors including sales increase (+570 billion yen) and improvement in cost competitiveness (+90 billion yen). But negative effect on currency (= high yen, which is higher by 7 yen per USD compared to last year) was 120 billion yen and therefore the total profit was only 323 billion yen



2. Shift in production of export-oriented Japanese companies to overseas



The first measures taken in many cases for cost reduction in high yen situation is cutting production cost by shifting production from Japan to countries of lower labour cost such as ASEAN and China. This is why production shift took place in many manufacturing companies especially consumer electronics and automobile companies in mid 1990s.



The recent high yen is triggering further production shift to overseas. Nissan was one of the first companies that explicitly said they will shift more production sites to Asia, followed by other companies. Others that have not yet announced the production shift but they say that if the high yen continues they also would consider production shift to overseas.



There is no sign of the yen to get lower and some view that it is quite possible that it will get higher than 80 yen per USD. Experts and people of the industry say that if the yen should get as high as 75 yen 100% of the production of automobiles need to be shifted to overseas for the companies to make ends meet.



3. Economy remaining sluggish



In addition, high yen would be a big factor for sluggish economy, because of decrease in consumer spending and slow tourism business. Low consumer spending is one of the primary factors for sluggish economy.



Shift in production to overseas drives restructuring and job cuts. As a result, employment rate goes up. In such a situation, consumer spending would unlikely be stimulated unless the government gives incentives/execute economy stimulation measures that trades off such negative factors.



Also, high yen would likely to keep away tourists coming to Japan because it would cost them more to enjoy their visit to Japan, meaning less consumer spending. This is because even if the number of tourists visiting Japan remains the same, they are more unlikely be able to purchase same amount of products and services as low yen time unless they can afford to bring more money with them.

2010年11月7日日曜日

Japan Stagnates in Stock Market Recovery Unlike Worldwide – Why?

Osaka – Sunday, November 7, 2010




Nikkei, Japanese leading newspaper specialized in business and economy reported on November 6 that 70% of the worldwide stock market/share price (14 among 20 major markets including the U.S.) has recovered to the level of the pre-worldwide economic crisis of 2008 driven by additional credit ease by FRB (Federal Reserve Bank), while that of Japan stagnates. The worldwide recovery attributes to investment money generated by the easy money flowing into the stock market. Average share price of Japan stock market is still minus 20% from the level of the pre-worldwide economic crisis and its slow recovery stands out.



1. Which countries have been recovering the most?



It is the emerging markets, whose growth expectation is high. As shown in the table below, no.1 is Argentina (+103% from the level before the worldwide economic crisis), which is followed by China (+50%) and India (49%). These countries are all in upward trend.



Worldwide Main Stock Index Compared to the Level of Pre-Worldwide Economic Crisis


(Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)

Country / Advance/Decline Ratio vs Pre-Worldwide Crisis (%)

Argentina / 102.7

China / 50.5

India / 49.2

Brazil / 39.3

Taiwan / 33.9

South Korea / 31.2

Hong Kong / 28.5

Singapore / 26.0

Russia / 19.4

South Africa / 16.4

The U.K. / 8.2

Germany / 8.0

Canada / 0.9

The U.S. / 0.1

Australia / -1.7

Spain / -7.1

Switzerland / -8.6

France / -9.6

Japan / -21.6

Italy / -24.3



Majority of developed countries also recovered with capital inflow into their stock market. Dow index has recovered to the level of pre-worldwide crisis on November 4. Recovery rate of the U.K. and Germany is especially large with +8%. The reason is said to be the fact that with easy interest rate of the U.S. and Japan, yield of government bonds went down and therefore comparatively the stocks of the developed countries became attractive to investors.



2. Which countries stagnate in recovery?



It is the countries with structural problems, such as Italy, Spain and Japan. The amount of government bond of such countries is large but high growth cannot be expected; therefore, only limited capital has been flowing into their stock market. Average share price of Japan is -21.2 from the pre-worldwide crisis level, which is above only Italy i.e. second from the bottom of the 20 countries.



3. Why Japan’s recovery stagnates?



It is because the revenue recovery of Japanese companies is much slower than their overseas counterparts, due to the following.



1) High yen that seems to continue



Yen has been hovering around 80 yen per USD, the same level as the previous high yen level of around 1995 when Japanese companies suffered so much from high yen. The high yen trend seems to continue for some time, and some experts say it could reach as high as 75 yen per USD.



This is the contrary of South Korea and German companies, whose recovery have been accelerated, leveraging their low their currency. Ratio of net profit for July-Sep of Posco (South Korea) has recovered to 86% of July-Sep of 2008 while that of Nippon Steel (Japan) is only 56%. Net profit of for July-Sep of Volkswagen (Germany) is almost twice of July-Sep of 2008, when that of Toyota (Japan) is only 70%.



2) Unclear policy of the government unable to support recovery of the companies



As experts point out, with politics in chaos, the government has not been able to support improvement of global competitiveness of Japanese companies. This is another obstacle for money inflow into the Japan stock market.



Bank of Japan has started to take comprehensive easing measures including purchasing of risk assets such as ETF (Exchange Trade Fund) but many experts view that such measures are behind those of FRB.





In the upcoming article, the author would like to focus on the effects on high yen on Japan.