How the World and Japan Should Handle Japan Disaster

Osaka - Monday, March 21, 2011




Following the author’s previous articles The Reality of Japan Disaster – Affecting Nationwide and What Aids Japan Needs and Why from the Natural Disaster, the author would like to share the essence of an online article in which Dr. David Neal of Oklahoma State University (leader of disaster study centre), an U.S. expert who have been studying this topic for over 30 years, was interviewed by a major Japanese journalist and posted as an online article of a leading Japanese business media on March 17, on how the Japan disaster should be handled.



1. How Dr. David Neal sees the Japan disaster as an expert?



Concept of “natech disaster” has been an area of study for the past 15 years. This is “tech(nology” disaster triggered by “na(tural)” disaster.



The Japan earthquake is such a typical example. Huge earthquake triggered massie tsunami that completely destroyed social infrastructure. This was followed by the Fukushima atomic plant issue, making the disaster extremely complicated.



There would more likely be other issues such as breakout of fires (like Kobe earthquake in 1995) and possible contamination of water; however, as of March 17, everyone had been in panic to forget possibility of such issues. In such a situation, it is extremely difficult to develop a (detailed) plan of rescue and reconstruction.



For the time being, there would be repeated “changes” and the most important thing is for everyone to be flexible to adapt to such repeated changes without being too sensational.



2. The most urgent issue (as of March 17) was how to avoid the worst scenario. What is the advice from Dr. Neal?



What needs to be discussed is “science” of handling this issue, and not pros and cons of nuclear plant.



Repeated changes of instructions given to residents to evacuate (first residents within radius of 10 km then 20km, then instructing residents within radius of 20-30 km to stay indoors) was what Dr. Neal was surprised at. He says that that it would have minimized the confusion if the instruction had been more with some allowance, taking into consideration that it would be rather difficult to transport residents by bus etc. to safe area (when transportation infrastructure such as roads is severely damaged with earthquake).



Moreover, the fact that information about the atomic plant became snarled amplified confusion. One reason for this is the difference in viewpoint/opinion among the Japanese government, electricity company (TEPCO) and experts, which was something similar with the Three Mile Island issue in 1979. The background for this is the difference in standpoint (for or against nuclear plant/energy), which is about “politics”. However, what is necessary is “science”, not “politics”.



3. How should the Japanese government handle this?



The government needs to disclose the facts as they became clear, and continue open communication with the Japanese citizen (and with the international community). If the situation should deteriorate, assess and communicate again. Repeat of such cycles.



One incorrect “myth” of disaster is the fact that (the government’s warnings) are considered to immediately cause panic. It is usually believed that when people are instructed to evacuate, they would immediately get into cars to do so, causing traffic jam; however, that is not necessarily quite true.



Usually the first reaction of the people to the government’s warnings is “do nothing”. Most people “wait” until more information is disclosed. Then when it comes to a point, there will be a panic.



4. How should the government communicate the information accurately?



Japanese people are well educated regarding what to do should an earthquake occur; however, it seems that they were not so well educated regarding what to do should emergencies of tsunami and atomic plant occur.



As to nuclear plant issue, the ideal thing was that the government and electricity companies have been sufficiently communicating with residents, and had given guidance on how to evacuate etc. should an issue occur, thus establishing good relationship of trust. Such relationship would be a great help should in crisis. This is a lesson for everyone in the future.



What can be done from now on is someone (background etc. of that person does not matter) whom people help/take initiative in open communication with the general public.



5. How are other issues?



The problem is the fact that it is extremely difficult to understand the big picture of the disaster. In most disasters, within the first 5 days, first phase of the rescue is mostly complete; i.e. people who survived are rescued, overview of the disaster is understood, and dead bodies are collected and identified. However, this disaster covers such a wide region and such process is rather slow (despite much efforts/assistance by various parties from around the globe). More human resources and assistance from Japan and the international community is vital.



After such a phase comes reconstruction phase. Infrastructure reconstruction would no be only of business/commerce. Focus in reconstruction phase include starting from what would be the most effective to reconstruct transportation of necessities/goods; how many people temporarily evacuated to look after where, how and for how long; how and with what pace to reconstruct housing and business/commerce facilities in order to support people’s lives and economic activities, to name a few. This is because people needs to be employed to make a living even if they have housing, and even if they are employed without housing business/commerce activities would not function appropriately.



Psychological support of people in devastated area is also important. People have been noble and helping one another, as reported by worldwide media. However, although it has not appeared on the surface, it is quite possible that after about half a year many such people would suffer from PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder). Usually not so many people would suffer from PTSD in natural disaster but in this case so many people have seen people including their families and friends taken away by tsunami and dead bodies. Therefore, psychological care of such people is also very important.



6. What is the key message from Dr. Neal?



The key would be to make upmost effort with integrity and flexibility. Japan needs brave actions, exceptional mindset, and resources (from around the globe). Experts like Dr. Neal himself and his team outside Japan would like to give full support.



7. The author’s final thoughts and additional comments



The article presents the guidance for all of us to handle the disaster, together with lessons for the future. Appropriate, open, timely communication of facts and of correct information is vital. Everyone needs to be calm and be flexible.



Besides the issues of radiation/contamination, electricity shortage, reconstruction of total social infrastructure, effect on global and Japanese economy etc., what is becoming a serious issue includes urgency of medical aids (experts, medicines, all other goods/services related to healthcare). Reason unique to this disaster include the fact that body temperature of many people in evacuation centres are very low (some even below 30 Degrees C) from tsunami, the region is still cold this time of the year, in addition to shortages of medicines, all healthcare goods/services, and experts.





References:-

Urgent interview to Dr. Davit Neal, an expert representing the U.S. in handing disasters – “What we can do now and what we need to do in the future from the Japan disaster” (Posted on March 17, in Japanese, interviewed and written by a Japanese journalist, Ms. Noriko Takiguchi)

http://diamond.jp/articles/-/11522





Resources:-

The key in handling the Japan disaster would be to make upmost effort with integrity and flexibility. Japan needs brave actions, exceptional mindset, and resources from around the globe. Experts in this realm from the U.S. like Dr. Neal himself and his team would like to give full support. This presents the guidance for all of us to handle the disaster, together with lessons for the future. Appropriate, open, timely communication of facts and of correct information is vital. Everyone needs to be calm and be flexible.