Abnormal Weather Worldwide – Why and Effects

Osaka - Sunday, July 25, 2010

Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy, reported on July 22 and 25, 2010 about recent worldwide abnormal weather. There have been repeated heavy rains in China and Japan, extremely hot summer days China, Russia, some parts of Europe and Japan, and extremely cold winter days in some parts of South America. The abnormal weather has been affecting economy and lives of citizens worldwide.

1. Why abnormal weather worldwide?

“Abnormal weather/climate” is a rare phenomenon that occurs once in 30 years or more, but such phenomenon has been increasing lately. According to JMA ((Japan Meteorological Agency), frequency of abnormal weather/climate 1975 - 2004 compared to 1901 – 1930 is 2.16 times for East Asia and 2.53 times for Europe. It can be said that the frequency has been increasing worldwide excluding Southern Africa.

Possible reasons for recent global abnormal weather are as below.

1) Heat wave in northern hemisphere

Some countries in northern hemisphere are covered by heat wave, attributing to meandering of upper westerly that flows from west to east. Assistant Professor Nakamura of University of Tokyo says that the heat wave has triggered consecutive abnormal weather worldwide. This is also said to be the reason of strong high pressure in Russia, Eastern Europe and East Asia meaning extreme heat that resulted in repeated heavy rains in China and Japan.

Professor Yamakawa of Japan University points out that meandering is not unusual but the degree is abnormally large. He adds that it is quite possible for this trend to continue until September. The meandering is, according to Professor Tachibana from Mie University, triggered by high water temperature of low latitude areas of North Atlantic Ocean. It is quite possible that activated convection developed high pressure in the eastern U.S. to prevent westerly flow and created meandering.

2) Arctic oscillation phenomenon

Arctic oscillation phenomenon is when the air pressure near the North Pole and its surroundings become reversed like a seesaw. Professor Yamazaki from Hokkaido University points out that with current pattern in which air pressure of the North Pole is low and air pressure of mid-latitude area is high, it is likely that cold air is accumulated in north pole and places such as Europe and Siberia tends to get hot.

3) High temperature of Eastern Pacific tropical waters

Sea temperature of Eastern Pacific tropical waters have been higher than usual and developed high pressure near Japan, leading to extreme heat, according to Professor Yamagata of University of Tokyo. He adds that La Nina phenomenon, the reverse of El Nino phenomenon, is to occur, meaning it is quite possible that extreme heat remains in northern hemisphere for a while. Also, Professor Yamakawa adds that it is possible that there will be increased number of strong typhoons this year.

2. What is the effect of abnormal weather economy and lives of citizens worldwide?

Effects range from crop yield decrease, floods and landslides such as the case in Japan mentioned in the previous article What are the Effects of the Recent Heavy Rains in Japan? to deaths of many people.

1) China

Since June, there have been repeated torrential rains in central and southern China from which more than 700 people died and 1,130 billion people have been affected.

Repeated heavy rains’ negative effect on crops is also severe, equivalent to economic loss of approximately 142.2 billion RBM (1.83 yen). Being anxious of negative effect on harvesting in autumn, production plan is now being reviewed.

Three Gorges Dam, a world class dam located in mid-point of Yangtze, recorded historical water volume flowing in dams since 1998 on July 20. Water volume flowing out was immediately increased and closed ship navigation for 4 days. This led to temporal negative effects on transportation between industrial regions such as Shanghai.

2) Russia

One in a century hot summer days were recorded, and in some southern regions the temperature reached as high as 40℃ with little rain. With spreading drought, government and farmers in south and midlands announced as emergency situation. Russia’s agriculture ministry had already estimated crop yields for July 2010 – June 2010 such as wheat to be 85 million ton, which is decrease by 12% from previous year; however, it is quite possible that revision of estimation is required. An executive of Russia crop association pointed out the possibility of this year’s export to be reduced by 20%.

With estimation of lack in wheat supply, wheat future quotation of Chicago rose by more than 20% in July. On July 23, it was as high as 5.9625 / bushel, which is at a high level since June 2009.

In some other regions in China it has been extremely hot, leading to effects similarly to other parts of the world that have been suffering from hot summer days.

3) North Korea

With nationwide heavy rains in the end of July, a whole village in northern part of the country was flooded.

4) France

There had been extremely hot summer days of over 35℃ temporarily. Therefore,　a new loan system was launched with interest rate as low as 4 – 5% to help people buy air conditioners.

5) Germany

There has been extremely hot summer days. Air conditioning of high-speed railway ICE broke down, and many passengers were carried to hospitals because of heat stroke and dehydration.

6) Southern part of South America

Historically cold winter days were recorded. People who died from reasons attributing to cold weather such as pneumonia and carbon monoxide poisoning due to imperfect combustion of heaters have reached over 200 in total in countries such as Argentina, Peru and Bolivia. And on July 20, food was supplied to people living in the streets in Argentina.

On July 21, the Paraguay government announced that approximately 2,000 cows died nationwide. The reason is assumed to be low temperature.

3. Is there no positive effect at all?

Extremely hot summer days after the rainy season in Japan have some positive effect on consumer spending. But in total, abnormal weather has more negative effect on economy, business and lives of people.

1) How temperature rise in summer has positive effect on consumer spending

According to estimation of a private research company, average temperature rise by 1℃ in Tokyo and Osaka July – September from previous years increases consumer spending by 433.3 billion yen. This means a positive effect on GDP by 0.3%.

Such estimation seems to be quite true. With the arrival of hot summer days (many parts including Tokyo reaching above 35℃, even 38.9℃ in Gunma), business of summer products started to pick up, supporting recovery of consumer spending. As a result, Nikkei average stock price at Tokyo Stock Exchange Market on July 21 was declining but stock price of air conditioner makers such as Daikin and Fujitsu General gone up. Stocks of beverage makers such as Itoen and Asahi Breweries were popular.

2) Some examples of consumer recovery with rise in temperature

(1) Air conditioner

It is usually said that when sweltering night continues for more than three days air conditioners start to sell well, and indeed in many mass merchandisers air conditioners started to sell well on July 19. For example, in a leading mass merchandiser, air conditioner sales for July 20 – 21 were 2-1/2 to 3 times that of last year.

(2) Bed clothing for summer

Sales of bed clothing for summer made from excellent ventilation materials are now strong in department stores. Sales of pillows and mattresses made from such materials increased by 50% from last year for 2 leading department stores. Another leading department store doubled selling space of related goods from July 21.

Sales of under wears that absorbs sweat well and dries quickly are strong, and a leading retailer is to speed up purchasing of such products (price range = 500 – 980 yen). The annual sales plan for such goods is 4.25 million in volume. So far, products are being sold at the pace of 50% more than the plan and therefore the retailer made additional order to a factory in China.

(3) Foods and beverages

Water melon sales started to become strong, according to wholesalers. In a Tokyo’s wholesaler market, water melons of top brands were traded at 3,675 yen for 13kg, which is approximately 8% higher than previous years.

Beer business started to become strong, too. By the end of July, Asahi Breweries will increase supply of its main product “Asahi Super Dry” at below 0℃ by 300 restaurants, equivalent to 50% increase, compared with beginning of the month.

Ice crème business started to pick up, too. Ice crème business of a leading maker was hovering at only 3% increase from last year until the middle of July. But from July 19 after the end of the rainy season, it has increased by double digit.

(4) Leisure

Summer leisure business also started to pick up. Visitors of a major pool in Tokyo for July 19-21 (extended weekend) increased by 40% from last year, reaching 34,900 people.

3) Consumer spending overall

The above sales pick-ups do not mean overall consumer spending has recovered across all industry. Total sales of leading department stores for July 1 – 19 are minus by 1.4% and 1.0% from last year. Also, if the temperature rises too much for too many days, less people (especially elders) would be visiting stores for shopping.

What is more, Japan’s crop harvesting is also estimated to be lower than previous years, and almost 20 people have died already from heat stroke.