More Mid-Year Abnormal Weather’s Negative Effects

Osaka - Thursday, December 23, 2010




Countries around the globe were effected by abnormal weather this year around July, and many countries in northern hemisphere including Japan suffered from extreme heat, as explained in the previous article Abnormal Weather Worldwide – Why and Effects. It is surprising to know from recent TV programmes in Japan that the negative effect still prevails which are likely to increase. This is about Japan but the same phenomenon may well apply to other countries worldwide as well.



1. How has the weather been since September in Japan?



The temperature has been higher than previous years in general, and in December there have been days that are much warmer and days that are much colder than normally in this time of the year. The warm days are assumed to be due to the global warming and extreme heat in summer of northern hemisphere, and the cold days are due to unusually strong cold air that occasionally covers Japan this time of the year. The drastic up and down of temperature is similar to what it was in spring, and people are having difficulties to cope with the drastic temperature fluctuation.



2. What are some specific negative effects of mid-year abnormal weather at this time of the year?




1) Increase in egg price



Egg price has gone up by almost 20% in the last few months for 2 reasons. One is the fact that many chickens have been killed with break out of pandemic bird flu earlier this year (around May) in Miyazaki prefecture and recent outbreak in Tottori prefecture. The other is the mid-year extreme heat.



The extreme heat in summer was a great stress to chickens that survived the pandemic flu outbreak as well as to humans. This made them bearing fewer eggs than usual even if they did bear (e.g. chickens that usually bear 2 eggs bear only 1 this year), and the eggs they bore are all smaller than the ones they usually bear.



Thus, extreme heat led to egg shortage and increase in egg price, as much as by 20% in the last few months, negatively impacting Christmas and Japanese New Year necessity businesses as well as the overall Japanese citizens. Christmas cake manufacturers are severely hit by the egg price increase because egg is inevitable in making cakes. Companies that make and sell “dashimaki”, a Japanese food made from egg always included in “osechi”, the Japanese traditional New Year cuisine, are also severely hit.



2) Increase in red salmon price and negative effect on local employment



The price of red salmon, another inevitable ingredient for “osechi”, also increased drastically as much as by 50%. This is because due to mid-year extreme heat the average sea temperature from September to December has been 1-2℃ higher than previous years, and therefore red salmons that prefer lower sea temperature do not come to coastal shore, the usual fishing zone.



Similar phenomenon has been pointed out for many other fisheries, all attributing to global warming; however, the case of red salmon　for this year is prominent. Red salmons caught this year are only 60% of previous year level even when fishermen have been working longer hours.



Decrease in yield of red salmons has not only led to increase in price but also started to negatively affect employment of local fishing cities, where their economy and employment rely on fishery.



3. The author’s final thoughts



The TV programmes reported the above 2 cases as negative effects of mid-year extreme heat but the author feels it is also the result of the long year global warming. It is just that the phenomenon is prominent this year because of the mid-year extreme heat we had this year, and that the ingredients whose price have gone up rapidly this time of the year are of cuisines essential for winter seasonal greetings in Japan. Therefore focusing on businesses of such hard-hit winter seasonal cuisines, saying that they are all due to mid-year extreme was an effective tactic for mass media because it was timely and newsworthy, being able to attract interest and attention of audience.



From everyday shopping, the author has realized that prices of other foods are also above previous year level, higher than normal inflation rate. This is mentioned occasionally, reason being abnormal weather, and some experts estimate that the total cost of foods per household in Japan would likely to go up by as much as 50% after New Year. The true negative effects of mid-year extreme heat of 2010 are yet to come, and it would directly affect lives of people in Japan and possibly worldwide.

Japan Leverages Bilateral Agreements to Initiate Low-Carbon Businesses

Osaka – Sunday, August 8, 2010

Nikkei, Japanese newspaper specialized in business/economy, reported today that METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) of Japan will make individual bilateral agreements with 9 countries of South East Asia etc., to initiate infrastructure import* leveraging GHG (global greenhouse gas) reduction technologies that Japanese companies possess.

As the first phase, total of 15 businesses will be put onto trial. Such companies including Tokyo Electric Power, Toshiba and Mitsubishi Corporation will be the main participants to start constructing high productivity coal-fired plant and geothermal plant. The agreement includes a system in which Japan purchases the GHG emission allocation equivalent to local GHG emission reduced by technological transfer from Japan, hence initiating and optimizing countermeasure of global greenhouse effect.

1. What is the plan/system?

The plan/system initiated by METI is called “Bilateral Off-Set Mechanism”, based on the agreement made in COP 15 (15th Conference of the Parties) held in Denmark, 2009. With the agreement, allocation of GHG emission can now be traded as long two countries agree.

In this system, Japanese companies implement low-carbon technologies and equipments to partner countries. The GHG reduced as a result will be managed as allocation of Japan. The partner government is to provide the allocation almost free of charge, but high technology level businesses are expected to be executed because the Japanese government will provide financial assistance to the partner countries and companies and send experts to partner countries to support establishment of businesses. Private companies will also benefit from this because they can increase business opportunities through negotiation by the Japanese government.

2. How is the system compared with previous similar ones?

The new system of trading of GHG emission allocation is more beneficial than the previous ones. For example, there have been systems such as CDM (clean development mechanism), in which the UN (United Nations) examine business; however, it took 2 years to be approved by the UN, even if it was approved. Trading allocation based on bilateral agreement is far quicker and more assure. It would be easier and more feasible for private companies to initiate related businesses.

3. Which Businesses were selected by METI?

METI selected 15 businesses among 32 overseas GHG reduction businesses proposed by private companies.

Major Infrastructure Export Businesses Selected by the Japanese Government
(Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)

Partner Country /Primary Private Companies / Business /Annual GHG Reduction Target (1000 ton)
Indonesia / J Power / High-efficient coal-fired plant / 500
Indonesia / Mitsubishi Corp / Geothermal plant / 80
Vietnam / Tokyo Electric Power, Marubeni Corp / High-efficient coal-fired plant / 500
Vietnam / Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Morgan Stanley / Efficient electrical power grid / 25,000
India / Mizuho Research Institute, Tohoku-Electric Power / High-efficient coal-fired plant / 500
India / Nippon Steel / Waste heat of iron and steel plant / 200
Philippines / Toshiba / Geothermal plant / 350
Philippines / JFE Steel / Waste heat of iron and steel plant / 50
Thailand / Yokogawa Electric / Energy saving of plants / 50
Laos, Myanmar / Taiheiyo Cement / Energy saving of cement plants / 100
China / Nomura Research Institute / Energy saving housing /17,000
Peru / Mitsubishi Corp / Forestry preservation / A few thousand

1) Status of agreement with partner countries

Of course the Japanese government need to agree with the partner countries on calculation of GHG emission reduction and businesses but basic agreement has been made already with 4 countries (Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines and India) out of 9. Japan is to proceed with sequential negotiations with Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, China and Peru.

2) Partner country that implements the most businesses

Indonesia is the most with 4 businesses to be implemented. Mitsubishi Corporation etc. plan to construct geothermal plants, and J Power plans to construct High-efficient coal-fired plants.

3) Support from the Japanese government

Support including financial will be given from the Japanese government. For example, in the case of high-efficient coal-fired plant business that requires 125 – 150 billion yen to get to the stage of starting operation, private companies expects some financial support from the government. METI will collaborate with Foreign Ministry to support smooth execution of businesses by leveraging JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation) and ODA (Official Development Assistance).

4. Effect of GHG emission reduction

If all 15 businesses are successfully put into practical use it is estimated that 5 – 10 million ton / year of GHG emission will be reduced, when 1.3 billion tons are emitted / year in Japan. It is also estimated that 15 – 20 billion yen is required to purchase the allocation of 10 million ton.


* Infrastructure Export (Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)

This is to leverage technologies etc. of Japanese companies and sell infrastructure facilities such as railway and nuclear plant to overseas countries. In many cases, target countries are developing and emerging countries. The new growth strategy of Japan approved by the cabinet in June 2010 includes initiating infrastructure export, and therefore public and private sectors are collaborating to acquire businesses from overseas countries and regions.

METI recently selected 11 focuses of infrastructure export.
1) Coal fired power generation, coal gasification
2) Electrical power grid
3) Nuclear power
4) Railway
5) Water
6) Recycle
7) Space
8) Smart grid, smart community
9) Renewable energy
10) Information and telecommunications
11) Urban development, industrial estate

The Japanese government is planning to implement all possible measures it has such as public financing and international trade insurance. However, global competition to acquire businesses of Asian countries such as China and Vietnam is extremely tough and in some cases falling behind Korea and other countries. Another risk/challenge is bloat private sector (e.g. public financial institutions).

Abnormal Weather Worldwide – Why and Effects

Osaka - Sunday, July 25, 2010

Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in business and economy, reported on July 22 and 25, 2010 about recent worldwide abnormal weather. There have been repeated heavy rains in China and Japan, extremely hot summer days China, Russia, some parts of Europe and Japan, and extremely cold winter days in some parts of South America. The abnormal weather has been affecting economy and lives of citizens worldwide.

1. Why abnormal weather worldwide?

“Abnormal weather/climate” is a rare phenomenon that occurs once in 30 years or more, but such phenomenon has been increasing lately. According to JMA ((Japan Meteorological Agency), frequency of abnormal weather/climate 1975 - 2004 compared to 1901 – 1930 is 2.16 times for East Asia and 2.53 times for Europe. It can be said that the frequency has been increasing worldwide excluding Southern Africa.

Possible reasons for recent global abnormal weather are as below.

1) Heat wave in northern hemisphere

Some countries in northern hemisphere are covered by heat wave, attributing to meandering of upper westerly that flows from west to east. Assistant Professor Nakamura of University of Tokyo says that the heat wave has triggered consecutive abnormal weather worldwide. This is also said to be the reason of strong high pressure in Russia, Eastern Europe and East Asia meaning extreme heat that resulted in repeated heavy rains in China and Japan.

Professor Yamakawa of Japan University points out that meandering is not unusual but the degree is abnormally large. He adds that it is quite possible for this trend to continue until September. The meandering is, according to Professor Tachibana from Mie University, triggered by high water temperature of low latitude areas of North Atlantic Ocean. It is quite possible that activated convection developed high pressure in the eastern U.S. to prevent westerly flow and created meandering.

2) Arctic oscillation phenomenon

Arctic oscillation phenomenon is when the air pressure near the North Pole and its surroundings become reversed like a seesaw. Professor Yamazaki from Hokkaido University points out that with current pattern in which air pressure of the North Pole is low and air pressure of mid-latitude area is high, it is likely that cold air is accumulated in north pole and places such as Europe and Siberia tends to get hot.

3) High temperature of Eastern Pacific tropical waters

Sea temperature of Eastern Pacific tropical waters have been higher than usual and developed high pressure near Japan, leading to extreme heat, according to Professor Yamagata of University of Tokyo. He adds that La Nina phenomenon, the reverse of El Nino phenomenon, is to occur, meaning it is quite possible that extreme heat remains in northern hemisphere for a while. Also, Professor Yamakawa adds that it is possible that there will be increased number of strong typhoons this year.

2. What is the effect of abnormal weather economy and lives of citizens worldwide?

Effects range from crop yield decrease, floods and landslides such as the case in Japan mentioned in the previous article What are the Effects of the Recent Heavy Rains in Japan? to deaths of many people.

1) China

Since June, there have been repeated torrential rains in central and southern China from which more than 700 people died and 1,130 billion people have been affected.

Repeated heavy rains’ negative effect on crops is also severe, equivalent to economic loss of approximately 142.2 billion RBM (1.83 yen). Being anxious of negative effect on harvesting in autumn, production plan is now being reviewed.

Three Gorges Dam, a world class dam located in mid-point of Yangtze, recorded historical water volume flowing in dams since 1998 on July 20. Water volume flowing out was immediately increased and closed ship navigation for 4 days. This led to temporal negative effects on transportation between industrial regions such as Shanghai.

2) Russia

One in a century hot summer days were recorded, and in some southern regions the temperature reached as high as 40℃ with little rain. With spreading drought, government and farmers in south and midlands announced as emergency situation. Russia’s agriculture ministry had already estimated crop yields for July 2010 – June 2010 such as wheat to be 85 million ton, which is decrease by 12% from previous year; however, it is quite possible that revision of estimation is required. An executive of Russia crop association pointed out the possibility of this year’s export to be reduced by 20%.

With estimation of lack in wheat supply, wheat future quotation of Chicago rose by more than 20% in July. On July 23, it was as high as 5.9625 / bushel, which is at a high level since June 2009.

In some other regions in China it has been extremely hot, leading to effects similarly to other parts of the world that have been suffering from hot summer days.

3) North Korea

With nationwide heavy rains in the end of July, a whole village in northern part of the country was flooded.

4) France

There had been extremely hot summer days of over 35℃ temporarily. Therefore,　a new loan system was launched with interest rate as low as 4 – 5% to help people buy air conditioners.

5) Germany

There has been extremely hot summer days. Air conditioning of high-speed railway ICE broke down, and many passengers were carried to hospitals because of heat stroke and dehydration.

6) Southern part of South America

Historically cold winter days were recorded. People who died from reasons attributing to cold weather such as pneumonia and carbon monoxide poisoning due to imperfect combustion of heaters have reached over 200 in total in countries such as Argentina, Peru and Bolivia. And on July 20, food was supplied to people living in the streets in Argentina.

On July 21, the Paraguay government announced that approximately 2,000 cows died nationwide. The reason is assumed to be low temperature.

3. Is there no positive effect at all?

Extremely hot summer days after the rainy season in Japan have some positive effect on consumer spending. But in total, abnormal weather has more negative effect on economy, business and lives of people.

1) How temperature rise in summer has positive effect on consumer spending

According to estimation of a private research company, average temperature rise by 1℃ in Tokyo and Osaka July – September from previous years increases consumer spending by 433.3 billion yen. This means a positive effect on GDP by 0.3%.

Such estimation seems to be quite true. With the arrival of hot summer days (many parts including Tokyo reaching above 35℃, even 38.9℃ in Gunma), business of summer products started to pick up, supporting recovery of consumer spending. As a result, Nikkei average stock price at Tokyo Stock Exchange Market on July 21 was declining but stock price of air conditioner makers such as Daikin and Fujitsu General gone up. Stocks of beverage makers such as Itoen and Asahi Breweries were popular.

2) Some examples of consumer recovery with rise in temperature

(1) Air conditioner

It is usually said that when sweltering night continues for more than three days air conditioners start to sell well, and indeed in many mass merchandisers air conditioners started to sell well on July 19. For example, in a leading mass merchandiser, air conditioner sales for July 20 – 21 were 2-1/2 to 3 times that of last year.

(2) Bed clothing for summer

Sales of bed clothing for summer made from excellent ventilation materials are now strong in department stores. Sales of pillows and mattresses made from such materials increased by 50% from last year for 2 leading department stores. Another leading department store doubled selling space of related goods from July 21.

Sales of under wears that absorbs sweat well and dries quickly are strong, and a leading retailer is to speed up purchasing of such products (price range = 500 – 980 yen). The annual sales plan for such goods is 4.25 million in volume. So far, products are being sold at the pace of 50% more than the plan and therefore the retailer made additional order to a factory in China.

(3) Foods and beverages

Water melon sales started to become strong, according to wholesalers. In a Tokyo’s wholesaler market, water melons of top brands were traded at 3,675 yen for 13kg, which is approximately 8% higher than previous years.

Beer business started to become strong, too. By the end of July, Asahi Breweries will increase supply of its main product “Asahi Super Dry” at below 0℃ by 300 restaurants, equivalent to 50% increase, compared with beginning of the month.

Ice crème business started to pick up, too. Ice crème business of a leading maker was hovering at only 3% increase from last year until the middle of July. But from July 19 after the end of the rainy season, it has increased by double digit.

(4) Leisure

Summer leisure business also started to pick up. Visitors of a major pool in Tokyo for July 19-21 (extended weekend) increased by 40% from last year, reaching 34,900 people.

3) Consumer spending overall

The above sales pick-ups do not mean overall consumer spending has recovered across all industry. Total sales of leading department stores for July 1 – 19 are minus by 1.4% and 1.0% from last year. Also, if the temperature rises too much for too many days, less people (especially elders) would be visiting stores for shopping.

What is more, Japan’s crop harvesting is also estimated to be lower than previous years, and almost 20 people have died already from heat stroke.

What are the Effects of the Recent Heavy Rains in Japan?

Osaka - Sunday, July 18, 2010

Since the end of July there has repeatedly been concentrated heavy rains almost nationwide (excluding Hokkaido) as explained in the previous article Why Repeated Heavy Rains Then Extreme Heat in Japan?, leading to negative effects such as people dying from landslides and flooded river in western Japan. As of July 18, 9 people have died and at least 5 people are missing and being searched, and thousands of people in many regions have evacuated from their homes.

In this article the author would like to introduce some of the examples of what happened and how some people have faced and/or survived.

1. Transportation

1) Trains

Shinkansen bullet train had stopped one day between Kyoto and Gifu Hashima stations once due to heavy rain.

Also, some local trains also stopped or had to be driven by reduced speed, affecting many people. In fact, when the author was on a local JR (Japan Railway) train on the way to work, it stopped for a while and then started to be driven by extremely reduced speed due to torrential rain. This made her arrive at her destination station 1-1/2 hour later than the original schedule, when it would only take just over 1 hour to get to the destination.

2) Roads

Some roads had to be closed due to landslides. This made some remote villages in the mountains isolated.

Also, many roads were flooded so people could not drive their car. It was difficult even to walk on flooded roads, as demonstrated by reporters of TV programmes.

2. Residents and stores

1) Houses

Some houses built near the mountains were damaged by landslides. Owners of such houses interviewed by TV programme reporters said that they were terrified to see large rock as big as cupboard and/or mud/sands attacking their house, and were shocked to see what happed afterwards; everything was ruined as if there had been a huge earthquake. It could have been worse because no one was in the room of the main target of the rocks and sands.

Some other houses reported suffered from severe floods. Very recently a river in/near the mountains in Hiroshima flooded and flooded river water mixed with landslide sands attacked many houses nearby. An old lady managed to survive in the midst of such a situation. She was trapped in the kitchen when her house flooded and was drifted into the river but managed to break the window to escape outside, used the chain for stabilizing PG (propane gas) as safety rope and was lucky to find a roof of a hut to escape to a road.

Even after the floodwaters receded in some regions, mud remains inside the houses. Electrical equipments were ruined, so did cars that were parked outside.

2) Stores

Many stores also suffered from floods and their goods to be sold were all ruined. Some store owners managed to evacuate their good to be sold upstairs but did not have time to evacuate all.

Electrical equipments were ruined, meaning investment is needed for the store owners to restart their business. For example, industrial refrigerators that food shops and restaurants store their goods and/or ingredients were ruined even if it looks good outside and need to be replaced with new ones immediately.

Another example reported is the case of hair dresser business owners. Their electric chairs were also ruined and they would need to repurchase them to restart their business. That would mean much investment.

3. Vegetables

1) Melons

Melons that were just before harvesting and shipping were ruined by the flood. After the flood had gone they look good outside but not inside. Since they had been in muddy flood water for a while, they have absorbed muddy water and therefore are not eligible. The melon farmers really regret; only if they had harvested and shipped one day before…

2) Chinese cabbages

Many Chinese cabbages were also ready for harvest when flooded. After the flood had gone, they really looked miserable in TV news.

And, the prices of various vegetables have gone up drastically again, after the prices had gone back to normal when they once gone up with abnormal weather in spring, as explained in the previous article How the Recent Weather Instabiolity Affecting Us? (Part 1).

4. The author’s final thoughts

There may well be more negative effects of the territorial rains on the society, economy and lives of people.

There has been abnormal climate/weather such as floods and extreme heat worldwide and the recent torrential rains in Japan seem to be a part of worldwide abnormal weather. This is a global environment issue and we all need to take actions immediately to solve this issue before the ecosystem collapses totally.

Why Repeated Heavy Rains Then Extreme Heat in Japan?

Osaka - Sunday, July 18, 2010

Since the end of July there have been torrential rains almost nationwide (excluding Hokkaido) causing severe landslides and floods. Even though it had been in a rainy season it was quite unusual to have such repeated, concentrated heavy rains for such a long period of time. Heavy rains stopped for this weekend marking the end of the rainy season for this year but there still remains a risk of such torrential rains again. What is more, it is quite possible that hot summer days will follow the weather recovery.

1. What is the reason for concentrated and repeated heavy rains?

The fact that atmosphere has been apt to be unstable is the reason for the concentrated and repeated heavy rains, attributing to strong warm and humid air flowing in from high pressure in the Pacific Ocean, and to cold air occasionally coming in stratosphere, when rainy season front has stayed hear Japan much longer than previous years.

The rainy season front has now moved up north east and should gradually further move north and disappear, but thunder clouds are being developed in regions strongly affected by strong damp warm air from the south even far away from the front. Damp warm air comes in following the rim of the Pacific high pressure. When there is cold air stratosphere, upper air current will become more violent.

Professor Yamagata of University of Tokyo says that another background for torrential rains is El Nino phenomenon that occurred from last summer to this spring. According to his explanation, this phenomenon makes the sea temperature of Eastern Pacific tropical waters higher than usual. Together with the flow of atmosphere made high pressure near Philippines strong. This made more humid air from topics come into Japan.

2. What is expected to come immediately after the end of the rainy season?

With stronger Pacific high pressure covering Japan we should have more sunny days and be free from heavy rains in most part of Japan for a while. It is forecasted that in Eastern Japan the highest temperature of the day will be extremely high.

However, it is possible that there will be localized heavy rains when the temperature hits high in inland and mountains and upper air current develops thunder clouds. It is forecasted that in northern Japan there will be many days that is not so sunny.

3. What is expected to come in the future?

What is called La Nina phenomenon, which is the reverse of El Nino phenomenon, is expected to occur in the future. With this phenomenon, Japan is to be covered with high pressure and therefore more likely to be extreme heat.

According to JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), there is not yet such a sign of active convection current near Philippines; however, professor Yamagata assumes that in western Japan it will be extremely hot summer days from the end of July to August. In fact, on July 17, the temperature rose as high as 35.2℃ in Fukui and above 30.℃ in many parts of Japan including Tokyo and Osaka, and it was officially announced that the rainy season for this year has ended.

How the Recent Weather Instability Affecting Us (Part 2)?

Osaka – Sunday, April 18, 2010

Weather Instability, especially going back to winter, has been reported in all TV channels in many TV programmes this week, with its effect on our life and business. As the succeeding article of How Recent Weather Instability Affecting Us? (Part 1) that focused mainly on negative effects on vegetables and fruits, this article will focus on effects on gasoline stations and tourism. Such effects are likely to give negative effects to Japan’s key issue of aging society and also Japan’s growth strategy pillar of “becoming tourism-oriented country” mentioned in the previous article How Japan's Growth Strategy Should Be?

1. How serious has the recent weather instability been?

In addition to how the weather has been extremely instable, on April 17 which is the last day that was officially announced as “low temperature” days by the Meteorological Agency after 14 years, it snowed even in large cities (not mountains) in eastern Japan including Tokyo and Yokohama, causing delays etc. of public transport. Snow in such cities in this time of the year is extremely rare; first time in 41 years.

Temperature in western Japan recovered today on April 17, and temperature in eastern Japan was forecasted to recover from April 18 as well. However, it is assumed that it continues to snow for a while in mountains and northern Japan where it have been snowing lately.

2. What are the negative effects of the recent weather instability on gasoline stands?

Season going back to winter has directly affecting gasoline price and gasoline stands. This may lead to a social issue in aging society.

1) Instable weather directly affecting gasoline price.

Recent cold weather drastically increased heating oil demand, leading to rise in gasoline price. Gasoline was 108 yen / gallon this time last year but with recent low temperature it is 133 yen / gallon now. It is quite possible that this trend continues for a while.

This is because heating oil is the primary energy for heating in houses in Japan. This is because adoption rate of central heating system is extremely low and heating oil stoves are popular. For this reason, people need to go to gasoline stations and buy heating oils for their stoves to keep them warm.

2) Increase in gasoline price may well accelerate closure of gasoline stands, meaning inconvenience for people especially elders.

In addition to imbalance of heating oil demand and supply this time of the year, which is a big factor of in price increase, there have been other changes in external business environment of gasoline stands, making business owners difficult to continue business successfully, besides the high crude oil price of the recent few years.

As a result, more than 40% of them nationwide are in red and gasoline stands have been continuously closing. Recent increase in gasoline price attributing to weather instability would negatively impact profitability of gasoline stands further and therefore may well accelerate closure of gasoline stands.

This would be a negative factor for Japan, suffering from aging society and taking counter measures to overcome has been vital. Heating issue, together with snow removal issue, are requirements for people to live safely in cold weather. Many gasoline stations being closed lately are in under-populated area where there are many elder residents. Weather instability is a factor that makes these issues more serious.

3. What are the negative effects of the recent weather instability on tourism?

Season going back to winter has directly affecting tourism, when the Japanese government has positioned tourism as one of the growth strategy and is planning to decentralize GW long holiday to activate tourism as mentioned in the previous article Is Decentralized GW Long Holiday Good?

1) Sight seeing spot famous for spring flowers cannot present beauty of nature like previous years.

Hitsujiyama Park in Chichibu, Saitama prefecture, famous for its impressive special kind of cherry blossom patchwork, has only about 70% in their best due to recent weather instability. The park is of 16,500 square meters, with more than 400,000 cherry blossom flowers, of 9 kinds in many colours such as pink, white and purple. They should be in their best this time of the year with many tourists enjoying the beautiful flower patchwork as in photo. However, with insufficient artistic patchwork and cold weather, it has been attracting extremely few tourists, all in winter jackets.

Some normal cherry blossoms are still available in such places as Nagano, but it has snow on the flowers. Viewing such cherry blossoms outdoor in a winter-like cold weather is not really suitable for “ohanami” mentioned in the previous article What is the Message of Recent Cherry Blossom Phenomenon?

2) Historic sightseeing spots have been attracting few tourists.

Recent weather instability has made few people visit historic sightseeing spots that in theory should not be much affected by temperature and weather. Nikko, famous for Nikko Toshogun (established by Ieyasu Tokugawa, the first Shogun of Edo Period), has been attracting only about half the tourists of previous years. According to the reporter of a TV programme, it is probably due to the cold weather; there are cable cars, which is uncomfortable to get on in such a cold weather.

3) Many souvenir shops are forced to close early.

As a result of 1) and 2), businesses of many souvenir shops that rely on tourists visiting such sight seeing spots are hardly hit. With few tourists, souvenirs are forced to or decide to close early because although it means less business opportunity it is no good to keep their shops open under circumstances.

4) Airport observation decks have been quiet.

Observation decks of airports such as Narita International Airport have been extremely quiet because of the cold weather. When a TV programme reporter visited Narita International Airport, there were no one at observation deck, only a few people looking at arrival and departure of airplanes from inside the buildings where they can stay warm.

4. Are there any places that have been attracting people?

Yes, there are a few exceptional places that have been attracting people. A good example is restaurants where they serve Japanese “nabe” dish, Japanese cuisine usually enjoyed in winter that make us warm. People interviewed commented in Japanese, literally “Our purse are cold (little money inside) but at least we would like to get warm physically by enjoying “nabe” dish”, reflecting the recent trend in Japan.

Another example is coat selling floors at retailers, but instead, summer cloth selling floors have not been attracting consumers. So it is a trade-off.

Today on April 18, as forecasted, temperature returned to almost the normal level and spring seem to have come back. The temperature is forecasted to remain this level for a while; however, it does not mean that the negative effects mentioned can be eliminated.

5. What is the thought of the Author?

It seems to the author that recent abnormal climate and instable weather is a sign that earth is not happy with how we, human being have been insufficiently preserving environment until today, although environmental preservation for sustainability of the globe has been an issue for more than 20 years. In fact, the author contributed to making an international conference on this issue of AIESEC (the world's largest youth-run organisation) so many years ago when she was a university student.

Our business and life are based on nature and ecosystems optimally balanced under normal, stable climate and weather. All the effects mentioned are how imbalance of ecosystems of nature negatively affects our human ecosystems, being the negative factors for prosperity. It is quite clear that the message from ecosystems of nature to us is that we need to take measures immediately to minimize ecosystem imbalance for our sustainability.

How the Recent Weather Instability Affecting Us (Part 1) ?

Osaka – Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Popular Japan TV morning and evening news programmes have been reporting lately on how the recent weather instability weather in Japan has been giving negative effects on businesses (especially vegetable, fruit and flower) and on our health. Negative effects of global abnormal climate and instable weather have been a worldwide issue, and Japan is not an exception.

1. How the weather in Japan has been instable recently?

The weather has been extremely instable, with rapid and drastic temperature and weather change in such a short period that we are experiencing winter and spring or early summer in one or few days, and/or in a week.

For example in Tokyo, the temperature was 22.4℃ on April 11, which dropped by 15.7℃ to 6.7℃ on April 12 but rose by 11.5℃ to 18.2℃ on April 13. In Maehashi, Gunma prefecture, it was as cold as winter on April 12 but became hot on April 13 with temperature rise by 17℃ to the average temperature of end of May. And in Nagano also, it was as cold as winter on April 12 but heated up on April 13 reaching the temperature of 25℃ and children enjoyed playing with water. There have even been some places in which temperature has been extremely instable within a day.

The temperature in these places is expected to drop again April 14 – 17, to the level which is below 5 – 7 ℃ below the average temperature at this time of the year. Therefore, the Meteorological Agency decided to officially announce “low temperature” first time in 14 years.

2. What was the reason for the recent weather instability?

According to Professor Yamagawa of Tokyo University, the recent weather instability attributes to what he calls “mock El Nino”, making cold air coming in, leading to low pressure. With this, cold weather comes from south, where warm weather usually comes from. This resulted in wind as strong as typhoon in northern part of Japan. For example, Sapporo, Hokkaido, was hit with winds of 33kph on April 13, and with the strong wind (plus snow), walls of an apartment broke down, directly hitting a car. Thus such weather in northern Japan is named “spring storm”.

3. What are the negative effects of the recent weather instability?

Vegetables and fruits have been negatively affective by the recent weather instability as below.

1) Vegetables and fruits

(1) Cabbage

Unstable weather led to insufficient sunshine (only 70% of previous years in Kanto area for example), meaning lean harvesting, and short of supply. This apparently results in increase in price, but some retailers have prices at 298 yen instead of 398 yen which they really want to price or 313 yen which the cost because they fully are aware that consumers would not pay more than 300 yen for a cabbage. Some retailers are tackling this problem by selling cabbages in halves and quarters and making sure to sell out but they have not been as successful as they had hoped.

According to a few consumers interviewed, they cannot afford to pay more than 300 yen for a cabbage, and now they make the most of what they purchase by using outer hard leaves and centre core as well when they would have not done if the price had not gone up as now.

(2) “New” cabbage

For the reason same as the cabbage explained above, the harvesting has reached only 50% of previous years, when this kind of “new” cabbage are harvested only in March and April (hence the name “new” cabbage) meaning it should have reached around 70% by now by simple calculation. This has directly been reflected in up pricing.

(3) Other “spring” vegetables

Other vegetables usually brought to cultivation and harvested in spring if green house is not used (we call them “spring vegetables” in Japan) such as tomatoes, cucumbers, eggplants and green peppers have not been growing well for the same reason as cabbages. As a result, only 70% - 80% of the previous year level has been harvested. As for green peppers, it is below 70%.

Some cucumber growers have been handling this by combination of green house use and heating. They have been achieving their yield quantity target but not in their cost due to high heating cost, thus their business has not been as successful as they expected.

(4) Strawberries

Cultivation and business of strawberries, symbol of “spring fruits” (fruits harvested in spring), also have been negatively affected by the recent instable weather. Growth of strawberries is extremely bad for the same reason as vegetables, and growers are suffering from high heating cost.

(5) Japanese plums

Japanese plums are also a symbol of “spring” in Japan and its cultivation and business have also been negatively effected by the recent instable weather, similarly to other vegetables and fruits. It is expected to result in 1.8 billion yen loss for Japanese plum business in Wakayama Prefecture, whose market share is the highest.

2) Other plants and animals

Other plants and animals have also been negatively affected by the recent weather instability.

(1) Carnations

Carnation, a spring flower, has not been growing well, and growers are extremely worried that they will make little business from carnation unlike previous years. Carnation is the most common gift given on Mother’s Day, which is the second Sunday in May, so carnation growers cultivate, harvest and ship to meet such market demand and needs every year. However, with the recent instable weather, carnations have not been growing well and growers are worried that they would not be able to ship their products in time for Mother’s Day and their profit would decrease by 70% from previous years.

(2) Honey bees

Breeding and growing of honey bees have been affected by the recent instable weather as well. When it becomes warm in spring, honey bees produce eggs, which incubate and finally become adult honey bees. However, recent instable weather including winter-like days resulted in insufficient incubation and/or child neglect by adult honey bees. Consequently, only about 70% of eggs have been successfully becoming adult bees.

3) Our health

Recent weather instability has negatively affecting our health, resulting in the patients suffering from cold, asthma and other cardiovascular diseases (e.g. cardiac infarction and angina pectoris) attributing to changeable weather. In fact, such patients are double the previous years. Doctors call such diseases “meteorotropic disease”.

4. Are there any positive effects of the recent instable weather? If yes, how are they compared to negative effects?

Yes, there are a few positive effects of the recent instable weather. Such includes the fact that cherry blossoms can be enjoyed for longer time compared to previous years because of some days of low temperature, and strong sales of spring and rain coats in retailers. However, negative effects and losses are greater.

After all, our business and life are based on nature and ecosystems optimally balanced under normal, stable climate and weather. The above can be said as how imbalance of ecosystems of nature negatively affects our human ecosystems.