Osaka – Sunday, April 18, 2010
Weather Instability, especially going back to winter, has been reported in all TV channels in many TV programmes this week, with its effect on our life and business. As the succeeding article of How Recent Weather Instability Affecting Us? (Part 1) that focused mainly on negative effects on vegetables and fruits, this article will focus on effects on gasoline stations and tourism. Such effects are likely to give negative effects to Japan’s key issue of aging society and also Japan’s growth strategy pillar of “becoming tourism-oriented country” mentioned in the previous article How Japan's Growth Strategy Should Be?
1. How serious has the recent weather instability been?
In addition to how the weather has been extremely instable, on April 17 which is the last day that was officially announced as “low temperature” days by the Meteorological Agency after 14 years, it snowed even in large cities (not mountains) in eastern Japan including Tokyo and Yokohama, causing delays etc. of public transport. Snow in such cities in this time of the year is extremely rare; first time in 41 years.
Temperature in western Japan recovered today on April 17, and temperature in eastern Japan was forecasted to recover from April 18 as well. However, it is assumed that it continues to snow for a while in mountains and northern Japan where it have been snowing lately.
2. What are the negative effects of the recent weather instability on gasoline stands?
Season going back to winter has directly affecting gasoline price and gasoline stands. This may lead to a social issue in aging society.
1) Instable weather directly affecting gasoline price.
Recent cold weather drastically increased heating oil demand, leading to rise in gasoline price. Gasoline was 108 yen / gallon this time last year but with recent low temperature it is 133 yen / gallon now. It is quite possible that this trend continues for a while.
This is because heating oil is the primary energy for heating in houses in Japan. This is because adoption rate of central heating system is extremely low and heating oil stoves are popular. For this reason, people need to go to gasoline stations and buy heating oils for their stoves to keep them warm.
2) Increase in gasoline price may well accelerate closure of gasoline stands, meaning inconvenience for people especially elders.
In addition to imbalance of heating oil demand and supply this time of the year, which is a big factor of in price increase, there have been other changes in external business environment of gasoline stands, making business owners difficult to continue business successfully, besides the high crude oil price of the recent few years.
As a result, more than 40% of them nationwide are in red and gasoline stands have been continuously closing. Recent increase in gasoline price attributing to weather instability would negatively impact profitability of gasoline stands further and therefore may well accelerate closure of gasoline stands.
This would be a negative factor for Japan, suffering from aging society and taking counter measures to overcome has been vital. Heating issue, together with snow removal issue, are requirements for people to live safely in cold weather. Many gasoline stations being closed lately are in under-populated area where there are many elder residents. Weather instability is a factor that makes these issues more serious.
3. What are the negative effects of the recent weather instability on tourism?
Season going back to winter has directly affecting tourism, when the Japanese government has positioned tourism as one of the growth strategy and is planning to decentralize GW long holiday to activate tourism as mentioned in the previous article Is Decentralized GW Long Holiday Good?
1) Sight seeing spot famous for spring flowers cannot present beauty of nature like previous years.
Hitsujiyama Park in Chichibu, Saitama prefecture, famous for its impressive special kind of cherry blossom patchwork, has only about 70% in their best due to recent weather instability. The park is of 16,500 square meters, with more than 400,000 cherry blossom flowers, of 9 kinds in many colours such as pink, white and purple. They should be in their best this time of the year with many tourists enjoying the beautiful flower patchwork as in photo. However, with insufficient artistic patchwork and cold weather, it has been attracting extremely few tourists, all in winter jackets.
Some normal cherry blossoms are still available in such places as Nagano, but it has snow on the flowers. Viewing such cherry blossoms outdoor in a winter-like cold weather is not really suitable for “ohanami” mentioned in the previous article What is the Message of Recent Cherry Blossom Phenomenon?
2) Historic sightseeing spots have been attracting few tourists.
Recent weather instability has made few people visit historic sightseeing spots that in theory should not be much affected by temperature and weather. Nikko, famous for Nikko Toshogun (established by Ieyasu Tokugawa, the first Shogun of Edo Period), has been attracting only about half the tourists of previous years. According to the reporter of a TV programme, it is probably due to the cold weather; there are cable cars, which is uncomfortable to get on in such a cold weather.
3) Many souvenir shops are forced to close early.
As a result of 1) and 2), businesses of many souvenir shops that rely on tourists visiting such sight seeing spots are hardly hit. With few tourists, souvenirs are forced to or decide to close early because although it means less business opportunity it is no good to keep their shops open under circumstances.
4) Airport observation decks have been quiet.
Observation decks of airports such as Narita International Airport have been extremely quiet because of the cold weather. When a TV programme reporter visited Narita International Airport, there were no one at observation deck, only a few people looking at arrival and departure of airplanes from inside the buildings where they can stay warm.
4. Are there any places that have been attracting people?
Yes, there are a few exceptional places that have been attracting people. A good example is restaurants where they serve Japanese “nabe” dish, Japanese cuisine usually enjoyed in winter that make us warm. People interviewed commented in Japanese, literally “Our purse are cold (little money inside) but at least we would like to get warm physically by enjoying “nabe” dish”, reflecting the recent trend in Japan.
Another example is coat selling floors at retailers, but instead, summer cloth selling floors have not been attracting consumers. So it is a trade-off.
Today on April 18, as forecasted, temperature returned to almost the normal level and spring seem to have come back. The temperature is forecasted to remain this level for a while; however, it does not mean that the negative effects mentioned can be eliminated.
5. What is the thought of the Author?
It seems to the author that recent abnormal climate and instable weather is a sign that earth is not happy with how we, human being have been insufficiently preserving environment until today, although environmental preservation for sustainability of the globe has been an issue for more than 20 years. In fact, the author contributed to making an international conference on this issue of AIESEC (the world's largest youth-run organisation) so many years ago when she was a university student.
Our business and life are based on nature and ecosystems optimally balanced under normal, stable climate and weather. All the effects mentioned are how imbalance of ecosystems of nature negatively affects our human ecosystems, being the negative factors for prosperity. It is quite clear that the message from ecosystems of nature to us is that we need to take measures immediately to minimize ecosystem imbalance for our sustainability.
2010年4月17日土曜日
How the Recent Weather Instability Affecting Us (Part 1) ?
Osaka – Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Popular Japan TV morning and evening news programmes have been reporting lately on how the recent weather instability weather in Japan has been giving negative effects on businesses (especially vegetable, fruit and flower) and on our health. Negative effects of global abnormal climate and instable weather have been a worldwide issue, and Japan is not an exception.
1. How the weather in Japan has been instable recently?
The weather has been extremely instable, with rapid and drastic temperature and weather change in such a short period that we are experiencing winter and spring or early summer in one or few days, and/or in a week.
For example in Tokyo, the temperature was 22.4℃ on April 11, which dropped by 15.7℃ to 6.7℃ on April 12 but rose by 11.5℃ to 18.2℃ on April 13. In Maehashi, Gunma prefecture, it was as cold as winter on April 12 but became hot on April 13 with temperature rise by 17℃ to the average temperature of end of May. And in Nagano also, it was as cold as winter on April 12 but heated up on April 13 reaching the temperature of 25℃ and children enjoyed playing with water. There have even been some places in which temperature has been extremely instable within a day.
The temperature in these places is expected to drop again April 14 – 17, to the level which is below 5 – 7 ℃ below the average temperature at this time of the year. Therefore, the Meteorological Agency decided to officially announce “low temperature” first time in 14 years.
2. What was the reason for the recent weather instability?
According to Professor Yamagawa of Tokyo University, the recent weather instability attributes to what he calls “mock El Nino”, making cold air coming in, leading to low pressure. With this, cold weather comes from south, where warm weather usually comes from. This resulted in wind as strong as typhoon in northern part of Japan. For example, Sapporo, Hokkaido, was hit with winds of 33kph on April 13, and with the strong wind (plus snow), walls of an apartment broke down, directly hitting a car. Thus such weather in northern Japan is named “spring storm”.
3. What are the negative effects of the recent weather instability?
Vegetables and fruits have been negatively affective by the recent weather instability as below.
1) Vegetables and fruits
(1) Cabbage
Unstable weather led to insufficient sunshine (only 70% of previous years in Kanto area for example), meaning lean harvesting, and short of supply. This apparently results in increase in price, but some retailers have prices at 298 yen instead of 398 yen which they really want to price or 313 yen which the cost because they fully are aware that consumers would not pay more than 300 yen for a cabbage. Some retailers are tackling this problem by selling cabbages in halves and quarters and making sure to sell out but they have not been as successful as they had hoped.
According to a few consumers interviewed, they cannot afford to pay more than 300 yen for a cabbage, and now they make the most of what they purchase by using outer hard leaves and centre core as well when they would have not done if the price had not gone up as now.
(2) “New” cabbage
For the reason same as the cabbage explained above, the harvesting has reached only 50% of previous years, when this kind of “new” cabbage are harvested only in March and April (hence the name “new” cabbage) meaning it should have reached around 70% by now by simple calculation. This has directly been reflected in up pricing.
(3) Other “spring” vegetables
Other vegetables usually brought to cultivation and harvested in spring if green house is not used (we call them “spring vegetables” in Japan) such as tomatoes, cucumbers, eggplants and green peppers have not been growing well for the same reason as cabbages. As a result, only 70% - 80% of the previous year level has been harvested. As for green peppers, it is below 70%.
Some cucumber growers have been handling this by combination of green house use and heating. They have been achieving their yield quantity target but not in their cost due to high heating cost, thus their business has not been as successful as they expected.
(4) Strawberries
Cultivation and business of strawberries, symbol of “spring fruits” (fruits harvested in spring), also have been negatively affected by the recent instable weather. Growth of strawberries is extremely bad for the same reason as vegetables, and growers are suffering from high heating cost.
(5) Japanese plums
Japanese plums are also a symbol of “spring” in Japan and its cultivation and business have also been negatively effected by the recent instable weather, similarly to other vegetables and fruits. It is expected to result in 1.8 billion yen loss for Japanese plum business in Wakayama Prefecture, whose market share is the highest.
2) Other plants and animals
Other plants and animals have also been negatively affected by the recent weather instability.
(1) Carnations
Carnation, a spring flower, has not been growing well, and growers are extremely worried that they will make little business from carnation unlike previous years. Carnation is the most common gift given on Mother’s Day, which is the second Sunday in May, so carnation growers cultivate, harvest and ship to meet such market demand and needs every year. However, with the recent instable weather, carnations have not been growing well and growers are worried that they would not be able to ship their products in time for Mother’s Day and their profit would decrease by 70% from previous years.
(2) Honey bees
Breeding and growing of honey bees have been affected by the recent instable weather as well. When it becomes warm in spring, honey bees produce eggs, which incubate and finally become adult honey bees. However, recent instable weather including winter-like days resulted in insufficient incubation and/or child neglect by adult honey bees. Consequently, only about 70% of eggs have been successfully becoming adult bees.
3) Our health
Recent weather instability has negatively affecting our health, resulting in the patients suffering from cold, asthma and other cardiovascular diseases (e.g. cardiac infarction and angina pectoris) attributing to changeable weather. In fact, such patients are double the previous years. Doctors call such diseases “meteorotropic disease”.
4. Are there any positive effects of the recent instable weather? If yes, how are they compared to negative effects?
Yes, there are a few positive effects of the recent instable weather. Such includes the fact that cherry blossoms can be enjoyed for longer time compared to previous years because of some days of low temperature, and strong sales of spring and rain coats in retailers. However, negative effects and losses are greater.
After all, our business and life are based on nature and ecosystems optimally balanced under normal, stable climate and weather. The above can be said as how imbalance of ecosystems of nature negatively affects our human ecosystems.
Popular Japan TV morning and evening news programmes have been reporting lately on how the recent weather instability weather in Japan has been giving negative effects on businesses (especially vegetable, fruit and flower) and on our health. Negative effects of global abnormal climate and instable weather have been a worldwide issue, and Japan is not an exception.
1. How the weather in Japan has been instable recently?
The weather has been extremely instable, with rapid and drastic temperature and weather change in such a short period that we are experiencing winter and spring or early summer in one or few days, and/or in a week.
For example in Tokyo, the temperature was 22.4℃ on April 11, which dropped by 15.7℃ to 6.7℃ on April 12 but rose by 11.5℃ to 18.2℃ on April 13. In Maehashi, Gunma prefecture, it was as cold as winter on April 12 but became hot on April 13 with temperature rise by 17℃ to the average temperature of end of May. And in Nagano also, it was as cold as winter on April 12 but heated up on April 13 reaching the temperature of 25℃ and children enjoyed playing with water. There have even been some places in which temperature has been extremely instable within a day.
The temperature in these places is expected to drop again April 14 – 17, to the level which is below 5 – 7 ℃ below the average temperature at this time of the year. Therefore, the Meteorological Agency decided to officially announce “low temperature” first time in 14 years.
2. What was the reason for the recent weather instability?
According to Professor Yamagawa of Tokyo University, the recent weather instability attributes to what he calls “mock El Nino”, making cold air coming in, leading to low pressure. With this, cold weather comes from south, where warm weather usually comes from. This resulted in wind as strong as typhoon in northern part of Japan. For example, Sapporo, Hokkaido, was hit with winds of 33kph on April 13, and with the strong wind (plus snow), walls of an apartment broke down, directly hitting a car. Thus such weather in northern Japan is named “spring storm”.
3. What are the negative effects of the recent weather instability?
Vegetables and fruits have been negatively affective by the recent weather instability as below.
1) Vegetables and fruits
(1) Cabbage
Unstable weather led to insufficient sunshine (only 70% of previous years in Kanto area for example), meaning lean harvesting, and short of supply. This apparently results in increase in price, but some retailers have prices at 298 yen instead of 398 yen which they really want to price or 313 yen which the cost because they fully are aware that consumers would not pay more than 300 yen for a cabbage. Some retailers are tackling this problem by selling cabbages in halves and quarters and making sure to sell out but they have not been as successful as they had hoped.
According to a few consumers interviewed, they cannot afford to pay more than 300 yen for a cabbage, and now they make the most of what they purchase by using outer hard leaves and centre core as well when they would have not done if the price had not gone up as now.
(2) “New” cabbage
For the reason same as the cabbage explained above, the harvesting has reached only 50% of previous years, when this kind of “new” cabbage are harvested only in March and April (hence the name “new” cabbage) meaning it should have reached around 70% by now by simple calculation. This has directly been reflected in up pricing.
(3) Other “spring” vegetables
Other vegetables usually brought to cultivation and harvested in spring if green house is not used (we call them “spring vegetables” in Japan) such as tomatoes, cucumbers, eggplants and green peppers have not been growing well for the same reason as cabbages. As a result, only 70% - 80% of the previous year level has been harvested. As for green peppers, it is below 70%.
Some cucumber growers have been handling this by combination of green house use and heating. They have been achieving their yield quantity target but not in their cost due to high heating cost, thus their business has not been as successful as they expected.
(4) Strawberries
Cultivation and business of strawberries, symbol of “spring fruits” (fruits harvested in spring), also have been negatively affected by the recent instable weather. Growth of strawberries is extremely bad for the same reason as vegetables, and growers are suffering from high heating cost.
(5) Japanese plums
Japanese plums are also a symbol of “spring” in Japan and its cultivation and business have also been negatively effected by the recent instable weather, similarly to other vegetables and fruits. It is expected to result in 1.8 billion yen loss for Japanese plum business in Wakayama Prefecture, whose market share is the highest.
2) Other plants and animals
Other plants and animals have also been negatively affected by the recent weather instability.
(1) Carnations
Carnation, a spring flower, has not been growing well, and growers are extremely worried that they will make little business from carnation unlike previous years. Carnation is the most common gift given on Mother’s Day, which is the second Sunday in May, so carnation growers cultivate, harvest and ship to meet such market demand and needs every year. However, with the recent instable weather, carnations have not been growing well and growers are worried that they would not be able to ship their products in time for Mother’s Day and their profit would decrease by 70% from previous years.
(2) Honey bees
Breeding and growing of honey bees have been affected by the recent instable weather as well. When it becomes warm in spring, honey bees produce eggs, which incubate and finally become adult honey bees. However, recent instable weather including winter-like days resulted in insufficient incubation and/or child neglect by adult honey bees. Consequently, only about 70% of eggs have been successfully becoming adult bees.
3) Our health
Recent weather instability has negatively affecting our health, resulting in the patients suffering from cold, asthma and other cardiovascular diseases (e.g. cardiac infarction and angina pectoris) attributing to changeable weather. In fact, such patients are double the previous years. Doctors call such diseases “meteorotropic disease”.
4. Are there any positive effects of the recent instable weather? If yes, how are they compared to negative effects?
Yes, there are a few positive effects of the recent instable weather. Such includes the fact that cherry blossoms can be enjoyed for longer time compared to previous years because of some days of low temperature, and strong sales of spring and rain coats in retailers. However, negative effects and losses are greater.
After all, our business and life are based on nature and ecosystems optimally balanced under normal, stable climate and weather. The above can be said as how imbalance of ecosystems of nature negatively affects our human ecosystems.
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