Osaka – Sunday, June 20, 2010
Nikkei, Japanese newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported through June 17 to 19 about the New Growth Strategy of Japan under the new leadership of the Kan Administration, which was announced on June 17 and was approved in a Cabinet meeting on June 18.
The objective of the strategy is to realize “strong Japanese economy” advocated by the new Prime Minister Naoto Kan by creating new demand in 4 sectors of environment, healthcare, tourism and Asia to create total of 5 million jobs by 2010. The target economy growth is to mark real GDP (taking inflation into account) growth at 2% and GDP growth not taking inflation into account at 3% in average over the next 11 years. And the policy is to turn rate of increase in consumer price index from negative to positive in 2011 and get out from deflation.
1. Summary of the New Growth Strategy
Chapter 1: Objectives of the New Growth Strategy
Realize strong economy, finance and social security
Chapter 2: Policy of the New Growth Strategy
Consolidated reorganization of economy, finance and social security
Chapter 3: Policy of the 7 strategic fields/focuses and target outcome
Details explained later in the article.
1) Target 2020
(1) Growth to achieve at least GDP of 2% (taking inflation into account) and of 3% (not taking inflation into account).
(2) Turn rate of increase in consumer price index from negative to positive by the end of 2011 (to terminate deflation)
(3) Decrease unemployment rate below 4% at an early stage.
2) Measures to achieve Target 2020
The Government Strategy Projects consist from 7 fields. The 7 fields are the 6 major fields (focuses) from the growth strategy announce in December 2009 as mentioned in the previous article How Japan's Growth Strategy Should Be? including environment/energy, healthcare, Asia, tourism/local community activation, science/technology, employment/human resources, plus newly added “finance”.
(1) Gradually lower corporate tax (effective tax rate) to the level of other major countries.
(2) Establish medical stay visa.
(3) Promote infrastructure export targeting mainly Asia by collaboration between public and private.
(4) Decentralization of people having holidays (execution from 2012 if possible).
(5) Create “Integrated Exchange” by 2013 that trades deals bonds & securities, finances and products.
3) Targets to achieve
Create new demand and jobs
Sector / Demand (trillion yen) / Jobs (million)
Environment / 5 / 14
Healthcare / 5 / 28.4
Asia / 1.2 / 0.19
Tourism / 1.1 / 0.56
Total / 12.3 / 4.99
2. Summary of the Government Strategy Projects consisting from 7 fields
1) Environment / Energy
(1) Accelerate expansion of regenerable energy: to expand the market size to 10 trillion yen
Implement a system purchasing all regenerable energy such as wind & water power and biomass, implement smart grid (next generation transmission network); promote construction of wind power and geothermal generation.
(2) Create “Environmental Future City”: to expand environment/energy market to more than 50 trillion yen and create 1.4 million new jobs
Establish new law necessary for deregulation and tax measures; export know-how of urban development to overseas such as China.
(3) Revitalize forest / forestry: to establish foundation competitive against imported timber within 10 years, and make self-sufficiency ratio of timber over 50%.
Implement new “Forestry Management Plan” and support management strengthening attributing to upsizing; strategically allocate budget for woods and fiends management, and implement a system directly supporting forest management / environmental preservation.
2) Healthcare (Medical, Nursing etc.)
(1) Expand proliferation of advanced medical: to expand new medical equipments/pharmaceuticals and regeneration medicine, to generate positive economic effect of 700 billion yen/year.
Build consortium including medical organizations and administrations in the fields of cancer and dementia, and invest strategically research cost and talent; simplify evaluation procedure of advanced medical; abolish “drug lag” (new drugs launched in Japan after approved in western countries).
(2) International medical exchange: to have 500,000 people equivalent to 10% of Asia demand visit Japan, to generate positive economic effect of 1 trillion yen/year.
Accept more patients from abroad; implement new “medical stay visa”; enable medical treatment by non-Japanese doctors and nurses in Japan.
3) Leveraging economic growth of Asia
(1) Expand overseas business of infrastructure industry: to sign orders for overseas plant of 7000 billion USD to create 19.7 trillion yen market.
Establish Government Strategy Project Committee and strengthen top sales; expand function of public finance such as JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation)
(2) Lower effective corporate tax rate and promote Japan as hub of Asia: to double interaction of resources between Japan and other Asian countries.
Lower effective corporate tax rate to the level of major countries; pay attention to obtaining tax revenue source including increasing/expanding taxation base; develop tax measures etc. as incentives in attracting foreign capitals; all to be implemented from 2011.
(3) Promote and increase development of global talent and acceptance of advanced talents: to accept 300,000 foreign students.
Implement “Point System” covering western and Asian countries; treat immigration control favourably depending on work history and achievements; support so that more Japanese students would have international experience.
(4) Develop and execute intellectual property strategy / Cool Japan overseas roll out: to acquire content revenue of 1 trillion yen from Asia.
Establish a strategic organization of science, technology and innovation to drive standardization of Japanese technology; strengthen digital distribution of Japanese software; prevent proliferation of pirated copy in overseas market.
(5) Establish Free Trade Zone for Asia Pacific: to double interaction of resources between Japan and other Asian countries.
Develop basic policy regarding comprehensive economic alliance/collaboration such as EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement) by the autumn of 2010; promote accepting talents in medical and nursing fields by embedding system of accepting nurse and care worker candidates to Japan from abroad based on EPA.
4) Tourism oriented country / Activating community
(1) Create “General Special Zone System” and promote Open Sky: to increase foreigners in Japan to 25 million, to generate positive economic effect or 10 trillion yen and create 560,000 new jobs.
Create International Strategic General Special Zone targeting urban development of certain cities that will be the economic growth engine; special treatment in deregulation and tax in improving infrastructure; make Haneda Airport “International Airport that operates 24 hours”.
(2) Increase foreigners staying in Japan and decentralize people having holidays: to achieve target of 2.5 million foreigners staying in Japan and then increase to 30 million.
Speed up procedures to issue visa for foreign tourists; study to revise law related to public holidays such as decentralizing holidays by region; all to be implemented from 2012.
(3) Expand used housing and reform market: to double to 20 trillion yen.
Establish synthetic plan including construction inspection/assurance, proliferation of housing history information; set new energy saving standard for housing.
(4) Open public facilities to private: to expand business size of disposal business management right by PFI to 10 trillion yen.
Open to private construction management by public sector; dispose of business management right by PFI (Private Finance Initiative) system leveraging private capital.
5) Science / Technology
(1) Strengthen global competitiveness and develop talent: to increase to over 100 research centres ranked top 50 globally in each fields.
Improve “leading post graduate schools” responsible for advanced researches; leverage talents such as post doctorates.
(2) Leverage information communication technologies: to realize “FTTH (Fibre To The Home” that makes all households able to benefit from broad band services.
Improve electronic administration enabling one stop use of information communication technologies at any time; utilize information communication in medical, nursing and education.
(3) Expand R&D (Research & Development): by expanding total R&D cost of public and private to over 4% of GDP.
Strategic organization responsible for science, technology and innovation will develop cross functional execution plan.
6) Employment / Human resource
(1) Unify kindergarten and nursing schools etc.: to eradicate by 2017 children waiting to enter nursing schools regardless of how their parents work.
Abolish requirements to enter nursing schools; establish service supply system such as users being able to freely choose facilities and business owners freely can set prices.
(2) Implement “Career Rank” system and support work-force etc.: to optimize employment rate to 80% and decrease part-time jobber to 1.24 million which is minus 40% from the peak.
Create system of evaluating vocational capability in growth fields of nursing and environment; strengthen support to people who have been unemployed for a long time.
(3) “New Public”: to make 50% of the citizen to participate in “new public” such s volunteer of their community and workplace.
Design tax system from which citizens benefit from public policy; review financial system for small organizations that support NPOs.
7) Finance
Create Integrated Exchange: to assure presence of Japan market in Asia.
Create Integrated Exchange that can trade bonds & securities, finances and products altogether by 2013.
3. Comments and evaluations from experts
There are so my challenges to overcome. Roadmap to achieve over 300 policies by 2020 has not yet been clarified. Many issues/obstacles remain such as breaking barriers among ministries, filling insufficient measures for deregulation, acquiring financial resources etc. Concrete processes are set only for 2010 – 2013 and no specific targets are set at milestones. Processes to achieve the targets are left to each ministry; therefore, many experts point out it is quite possible that policies that truly need to be executed will remain unexecuted. It is not easy to realize GDP growth of 3% (not taking inflation into consideration) while increasing consumption tax that Prime Minister Mr. Kan clearly implied to study to implement on June 17.
Comments and evaluation from 5 experts are as below.
1) First commentator / evaluator (Economist)
Focusing on environment and healthcare is good. Making Haneda Airport international that operates 24 hours is something that could not have been challenged when LDP was the ruling party.
2) Second commentator / evaluator (Economist)
Productivity improvement is vital for an economy when population is decreasing. Deregulation in healthcare and nursing is insufficient.
3) Third commentator / evaluator (Economist)
Stance of overcoming deflation by collaboration with the BOJ (Bank of Japan) is good. Policy from the supply side such as deregulation is desirable from the perspective of achieving both growth and sound financial status.
4) Forth commentator / evaluator (Professor)
Balancing of the policies has been improved but feasibility is a question. Blueprint for restructuring finance and social security is necessary.
5) Fifth commentator / evaluator (Professor)
Target of overcoming deflation by collaboration of the government and BOJ can be evaluated but lacks detail or specifics excluding lowering corporate tax. GDP growth of 3% (not taking inflation into consideration) is insufficient.
4. The author’s thought
Comments and evaluations from the 5 experts are all valid. The DPJ, the current ruling party, would need time to restructure and reorganize to realize strong economy, finance and social security, after LDP had ruled for 50 years making Japan as it is today. Although it might lack in details or specifics, roadmap and milestone targets, the new Kan administration did announced clearly the policy. Having said that, the situation is extremely urgent and if it should take too much time Japan would end up like Greece, as many experts point out, and therefore it is highly more concrete roadmap, milestone targets etc. are expected to follow soon.
Breaking various barriers and financial resources are the two major challenges.
The former is about game/power change and change in culture. Prime Minister Mr. Kan is from a family of non-politician (unlike many other politicians in Japan who become prime ministers) and has made an apology statement against bureaucrats when he was the Minister of Health and Welfare, so if he cannot achieve, it is probably that no one else can achieve.
The latter can only be achieved by increasing revenue (i.e. tax) and/or decreasing annual expenditure (i.e. cost). On June 17 Prime Minister Kan clearly implied that he is thinking of increasing (doubling) the consumption tax. It is understandable but other measures should be taken before increasing consumption tax such as eradicating practice of high-level government officials taking jobs in the private sector, slashing number / salary etc. of people in the Congress, and initiate further screening process that started last year. Otherwise, Japanese citizens would not be convinced.
We all hope strong leadership from Prime Minister Kan, and support from public and private sectors, with minimum resistance.
2010年6月20日日曜日
2010年1月3日日曜日
How Japan’s Growth Strategy Should Be?
Sunday, January 3, 2010 – Osaka, Japan
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported on December 31 2009 that on December 30 the Japanese government defined basic policy new growth strategy for sustainable economic growth. “Economic management is to be performed, positioning achievement of nominal growth rate* as the most important challenge” is specified. Targets including “By 2010 average nominal growth rate of 3% and bigger growth than actual growth rate of 2%” with engines of industries including environment, healthcare and tourism, and “nominal GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of 650 trillion yen for 2020” were specified. However, according to an article reported today by Nikkei, approximately 60% of 17 economy experts are dissatisfied with the government’s economic policy and estimate that it takes a few years for the economy to recover.
1. Why “nominal“ instead of “actual” is used to define growth target?
It is unusual for the government to define growth target in “nominal” instead of “actual” excluding effects of price fluctuation. “Nominal“ is used from the sense of urgency of the current economic situation; deflation mentioned in the previous article "How Japan Can Get Out From 10 Year Deflation?" and its negative effect on family budget and company business.
2. How has Japan’s nominal GDP been until today? What are the upcoming plans?
For nearly 20 years since 1990, Japan’s nominal GDP has been hovering at the low level of 500 trillion yen, and therefore 650 trillion yen level is increase by +30% vs. 2008. Growth of nominal growth rate of +3% has not been achieved since 1991.
In order to achieve both nominal growth rate of 3% and actual growth rate of 2%, first, deflation needs to be overcome then control inflation rate under 1%/year. Mr. Naoto Kan, Vice Prime Minister and Head of National Strategy emphasized in the press conference held on December 30 that “these targets are sufficiently achievable”; however, experts feel that it is difficult to achieve the targets, considering the past Japanese economy performances and financial policies.
Prime Minister Mr. Yukio Hatoyama expressed in the press conference on December 30 his determination to achieve the target, saying that he is fully aware that the effectiveness of his administration really counts. The government is to develop growth strategy action plan (roadmap/timeline) for the time span until 2020 by June.
3. Which fields are to be focused to achieve growth strategy?
The following 6 fields are specified as focuses for growth strategy.
1) Environment and energy
Expand environment related market from 70 trillion yen to 120 trillion yen. Create 1.4 million jobs. Leverage Japan’s technologies to contribute to cutting 1.3 billion ton worldwide GHG, equivalent to Japan’s emission volume. Leverage IT to make next generation transmission network pervasive to control electricity supply. Make pervasive eco-friendly housing and expand natural energy use, and LED and other energy saving lighting.
2) Healthcare
Create healthcare, nursing and medical market of 45 trillion yen and 280 jobs by leveraging technologies to create internal and external demand. Initiate R&D of innovative medical and nursing technologies such as regenerative medicine, telemedicine system, nursing robots etc. and provide healthcare related services to Asian markets expected to experience aging society. Strengthen infrastructure supporting aging society such as medical, nursing and housing to eliminate anxieties for the future to promote consumption by elders.
3) Asia
Create demand together with Asia, “the growth centre of the world”, positioning formulation of EFAAP covering 21 countries and regions that are currently members of APEC as its foundation. Develop infrastructure demand of Asia such as transportation, water and energy.
4) Tourism and revitalizing local community
Achieve in line with 1)-3)
5) Science and technologies
Achieve in line with 1)-3)
6) Employment and human resources
Achieve in line with 1)-3)
4. How effective is the growth strategy?
The author basically agrees with views of majority of experts; measures for achievement are not clear and need to focus more on motivating companies and other private sector to invest in growth sectors such as deregulation, tangible growth strategy development and execution, and develop mid-term financial policy outlook/plan. Focusing on assisting family budget, the biggest anxiety lies in whether the Hatoyama administration can educe vitality of companies, the source/engine of economic growth.
Reasons for such evaluation from experts include lack of explanation of concrete policies, and lack of perspective that main player (source/engine) of economic growth is companies. The latter is more critical.
Drivers and engines of economic growth are R&D of companies and equipment investment. It is unlikely to achieve high growth driven by inefficient public sector, and sufficient financial resource cannot be acquired, neither. In fact, in 2008, value added (personnel cost, profit, corporate tax etc.) generated by companies excluding financial institutes reached 26.4 trillion yen. This means that more than 50% of nominal GDP is generated by companies.
5. What is the ideal scenario for economic recovery and achieving the target?
The government is supposed to buy over companies and market, and give incentives and motivation, creating favourable environment for companies and other private sectors to proactively invest in growth sectors. That is the solution to solve the root cause of the ongoing economic plunge. Also minimizing interference of government is necessary and public institutions not to get in the way of private sectors making decisions.
However, from the growth strategy reported, such message is not sufficiently delivered. It does not remove anxieties mentioned in the previous articles "How Japan Can Get Out From 10 Year Deflation?", "Japanese Companies Refraining from Equipment Investmen", "Service Price Drop in Japan Prominent: The Biggest Among 10 Major Countries" and "Japan's Debt to Drastically Increase - What is the Effect on Economy?"
Mentality of “Economy for human being based on friendship and love” alone is not sufficient to achieve the economic growth. Nikkei introduces varieties of innovative technologies of all sectors and industries (environment and energy, healthcare, IT etc.) in their special reports on January 1 2010. It is with tangible growth strategy, tactics and action plan leveraging such technologies, that create new demand and market in sectors and industries where needs exist in aging society with low birthrate, ubiquitous networking society. And it is with appropriate economic policies mentioned by the economists in Nikkei’s report on January 3 such as deregulation, tangible mid-term financial policy outlook, reduction in corporate tax rate (currently 40%), concluding EPA/FTA with Asian countries/regions, and pension system reform that create favourable environment for the growth strategy to be actually executed.
It is only when companies invest in such growth sectors, (many of them contributing to improving social infrastructure and systems), collaborate with academia and other public sectors in R&D in particular, and operate efficiently with high productivity, that they would be able to generate revenue to improve their financial performance. It is with good financial performance of companies that leads to new job creation, higher salaries for their employees, pensions guarantee etc., which contributes to minimizing anxieties of citizens making their own living and live happily after retirement as well as providing citizens with better lives and society, based on the mentality of “friendship and love”. It is by eliminating their anxieties that citizens utilize allowances for consumer spending instead of setting aside for saving, meaning the government’s economy boosting measures become successful, and as a result Japan will be able to get out of deflation, its economy recovered, and achieve the target.
We would need to wait and see what kind of roadmap and action plan the government will develop and announce in June.
* Nominal Growth Rate (Source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author)
Nominal growth rate is GDP growth rate including effects of price fluctuation. Almost equals to sum of after-tax pay of workers and profits generated by companies. In general, changes in GDP are measured by actual growth rate (excluding effects of price fluctuation) but nominal growth rate can be said to precisely reflect the actual sensation of business and economy because income and profits are all of nominal value.
Average economic growth rate by decades since 1980
Decades / Nominal Growth Rate (%) / Actual Growth Rate (%)
1980s / 6.1 / 3.8
1990s / 2.0 / 1.4
2000s / -0.5 / 0.7
Rise in nominal growth rate leads to both getting out of deflation and economic growth. In 2000s, actual growth rate was +0.7% but nominal growth rate was -0.5%, which implies that long term economic recovery was achieved but lacked in actual sensation. This was because nominal growth rate was minus.
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported on December 31 2009 that on December 30 the Japanese government defined basic policy new growth strategy for sustainable economic growth. “Economic management is to be performed, positioning achievement of nominal growth rate* as the most important challenge” is specified. Targets including “By 2010 average nominal growth rate of 3% and bigger growth than actual growth rate of 2%” with engines of industries including environment, healthcare and tourism, and “nominal GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of 650 trillion yen for 2020” were specified. However, according to an article reported today by Nikkei, approximately 60% of 17 economy experts are dissatisfied with the government’s economic policy and estimate that it takes a few years for the economy to recover.
1. Why “nominal“ instead of “actual” is used to define growth target?
It is unusual for the government to define growth target in “nominal” instead of “actual” excluding effects of price fluctuation. “Nominal“ is used from the sense of urgency of the current economic situation; deflation mentioned in the previous article "How Japan Can Get Out From 10 Year Deflation?" and its negative effect on family budget and company business.
2. How has Japan’s nominal GDP been until today? What are the upcoming plans?
For nearly 20 years since 1990, Japan’s nominal GDP has been hovering at the low level of 500 trillion yen, and therefore 650 trillion yen level is increase by +30% vs. 2008. Growth of nominal growth rate of +3% has not been achieved since 1991.
In order to achieve both nominal growth rate of 3% and actual growth rate of 2%, first, deflation needs to be overcome then control inflation rate under 1%/year. Mr. Naoto Kan, Vice Prime Minister and Head of National Strategy emphasized in the press conference held on December 30 that “these targets are sufficiently achievable”; however, experts feel that it is difficult to achieve the targets, considering the past Japanese economy performances and financial policies.
Prime Minister Mr. Yukio Hatoyama expressed in the press conference on December 30 his determination to achieve the target, saying that he is fully aware that the effectiveness of his administration really counts. The government is to develop growth strategy action plan (roadmap/timeline) for the time span until 2020 by June.
3. Which fields are to be focused to achieve growth strategy?
The following 6 fields are specified as focuses for growth strategy.
1) Environment and energy
Expand environment related market from 70 trillion yen to 120 trillion yen. Create 1.4 million jobs. Leverage Japan’s technologies to contribute to cutting 1.3 billion ton worldwide GHG, equivalent to Japan’s emission volume. Leverage IT to make next generation transmission network pervasive to control electricity supply. Make pervasive eco-friendly housing and expand natural energy use, and LED and other energy saving lighting.
2) Healthcare
Create healthcare, nursing and medical market of 45 trillion yen and 280 jobs by leveraging technologies to create internal and external demand. Initiate R&D of innovative medical and nursing technologies such as regenerative medicine, telemedicine system, nursing robots etc. and provide healthcare related services to Asian markets expected to experience aging society. Strengthen infrastructure supporting aging society such as medical, nursing and housing to eliminate anxieties for the future to promote consumption by elders.
3) Asia
Create demand together with Asia, “the growth centre of the world”, positioning formulation of EFAAP covering 21 countries and regions that are currently members of APEC as its foundation. Develop infrastructure demand of Asia such as transportation, water and energy.
4) Tourism and revitalizing local community
Achieve in line with 1)-3)
5) Science and technologies
Achieve in line with 1)-3)
6) Employment and human resources
Achieve in line with 1)-3)
4. How effective is the growth strategy?
The author basically agrees with views of majority of experts; measures for achievement are not clear and need to focus more on motivating companies and other private sector to invest in growth sectors such as deregulation, tangible growth strategy development and execution, and develop mid-term financial policy outlook/plan. Focusing on assisting family budget, the biggest anxiety lies in whether the Hatoyama administration can educe vitality of companies, the source/engine of economic growth.
Reasons for such evaluation from experts include lack of explanation of concrete policies, and lack of perspective that main player (source/engine) of economic growth is companies. The latter is more critical.
Drivers and engines of economic growth are R&D of companies and equipment investment. It is unlikely to achieve high growth driven by inefficient public sector, and sufficient financial resource cannot be acquired, neither. In fact, in 2008, value added (personnel cost, profit, corporate tax etc.) generated by companies excluding financial institutes reached 26.4 trillion yen. This means that more than 50% of nominal GDP is generated by companies.
5. What is the ideal scenario for economic recovery and achieving the target?
The government is supposed to buy over companies and market, and give incentives and motivation, creating favourable environment for companies and other private sectors to proactively invest in growth sectors. That is the solution to solve the root cause of the ongoing economic plunge. Also minimizing interference of government is necessary and public institutions not to get in the way of private sectors making decisions.
However, from the growth strategy reported, such message is not sufficiently delivered. It does not remove anxieties mentioned in the previous articles "How Japan Can Get Out From 10 Year Deflation?", "Japanese Companies Refraining from Equipment Investmen", "Service Price Drop in Japan Prominent: The Biggest Among 10 Major Countries" and "Japan's Debt to Drastically Increase - What is the Effect on Economy?"
Mentality of “Economy for human being based on friendship and love” alone is not sufficient to achieve the economic growth. Nikkei introduces varieties of innovative technologies of all sectors and industries (environment and energy, healthcare, IT etc.) in their special reports on January 1 2010. It is with tangible growth strategy, tactics and action plan leveraging such technologies, that create new demand and market in sectors and industries where needs exist in aging society with low birthrate, ubiquitous networking society. And it is with appropriate economic policies mentioned by the economists in Nikkei’s report on January 3 such as deregulation, tangible mid-term financial policy outlook, reduction in corporate tax rate (currently 40%), concluding EPA/FTA with Asian countries/regions, and pension system reform that create favourable environment for the growth strategy to be actually executed.
It is only when companies invest in such growth sectors, (many of them contributing to improving social infrastructure and systems), collaborate with academia and other public sectors in R&D in particular, and operate efficiently with high productivity, that they would be able to generate revenue to improve their financial performance. It is with good financial performance of companies that leads to new job creation, higher salaries for their employees, pensions guarantee etc., which contributes to minimizing anxieties of citizens making their own living and live happily after retirement as well as providing citizens with better lives and society, based on the mentality of “friendship and love”. It is by eliminating their anxieties that citizens utilize allowances for consumer spending instead of setting aside for saving, meaning the government’s economy boosting measures become successful, and as a result Japan will be able to get out of deflation, its economy recovered, and achieve the target.
We would need to wait and see what kind of roadmap and action plan the government will develop and announce in June.
* Nominal Growth Rate (Source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author)
Nominal growth rate is GDP growth rate including effects of price fluctuation. Almost equals to sum of after-tax pay of workers and profits generated by companies. In general, changes in GDP are measured by actual growth rate (excluding effects of price fluctuation) but nominal growth rate can be said to precisely reflect the actual sensation of business and economy because income and profits are all of nominal value.
Average economic growth rate by decades since 1980
Decades / Nominal Growth Rate (%) / Actual Growth Rate (%)
1980s / 6.1 / 3.8
1990s / 2.0 / 1.4
2000s / -0.5 / 0.7
Rise in nominal growth rate leads to both getting out of deflation and economic growth. In 2000s, actual growth rate was +0.7% but nominal growth rate was -0.5%, which implies that long term economic recovery was achieved but lacked in actual sensation. This was because nominal growth rate was minus.
2009年12月28日月曜日
Japan’s Debt to Drastically Increase – What is the Effect on Economy?
Monday, December 28, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported on Saturday 26th the Japanese government’s finalized 2010 budget plan, from which it became quite prominent that realizing the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) Manifest and acquiring its financial resources is incompatible. The government is to solve by issuing new government bond meaning drastically increasing the debt, but this is likely to have negative impact on the overall economy. It is high time for the government to develop and execute growth strategy, aligning with the Japan and worldwide current trend, and the high time for all parties (politicians and bureaucrats, academic world and all other public sector, companies and all other private sector and citizens) to change their mindset and tackle the problem of recovering the economy together.
1. What is the big picture of the finalized 2010 budget plan and how unsound is the financial condition?
General accounts totaled 9.2 trillion yen (+4.2% vs. PY), which is the biggest in the history. Looking in details, general expenditure increased from 51.7trillion yen to 53.5 trillion yen, local allocation tax etc. increased from 16.5 trillion yen to 17.5 trillion yen, and debt servicing cost increased from 20.2 trillion yen to 20.6%. Moreover, adjustment cost for settlement of 0.7 trillion yen was added.
With budgeting policy emphasizing local and family budget, the total expenditure expanded. Public projects was cut 1.3 trillion yen (-18%) and reviewing respective business and budget by task force members which was a first trial in Hatoyama administration contributed to cost reduction of 1 trillion yen. However, local tax allocation increased by 1 trillion yen, social security cost increased by 10% due to aging society, and 3 trillion yen was added as costs to realize major measures of DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan)’s Manifest such as family budget assistance*.
Regarding budget revenue, tax revenue is expected to decrease from 46.1 trillion yen to 37.4 trillion yen, so although non-tax revenue is expected to increase from 9.1 trillion yen to 10.6 trillion yen, the government decided to increase government bond from 33.3 trillion yen to 44.3 trillion yen to cover-up the insufficient financial resources. This means that dependence of the national budget on government bonds will be extremely high, almost 50%.
Major Expenditure Items by Ministries
(Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)
Ministry Name / Budget (trillion yen) / Increase/Decrease (vs PY) / Concept of Budgeting
MHLW (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare) / 27.56 / Increase / Drastic increase with “family budget assistance” Increase by 2.4 trillion yen attributing to “family budget assistance” including allowance for children, lower medical expense and assistance of household with single parent.
MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) / 5.61 / Decrease / Expenditure for FOC motorways shrunk to 0.1 trillion yen. Public projects expenditure decreased drastically. Expenditure for FOC motorways cut from original request of 0.6 trillion yen to 0.1 trillion yen.
MIC (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) / 18.60 / Increase / Tax allocation increased by 1.1 trillion yen. Increase in local tax allocation received by local governments by 1.1 trillion yen, first time in 11 years. IT related budget focuses on promoting IT use.
METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) / 0.99 / Decrease / Focuses on supporting financing of SMB businesses. Focuses on supporting financing of SMB businesses. Increase in budget for supporting technical development for global warming countermeasures.
MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan) / 2.28 / Decrease / Drastic decrease in land improvement business. Full requested expenditures related to the Manifest including system to assist rice farmer households were booked. Drastic cut in expenditure for land improvement business supported by LDP.
MOFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan) / 0.66 / Decrease / Increase in supporting Afghanistan etc. Drastic increase in supporting Afghanistan and Pakistan. Cut in grant aid for third sector facilities.
MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) / 5.60 / Increase / To free tuition fee for public senior high school students. To free tuition fee for public senior high school students. Assist 120 thousand yen/child for private senior high schools. Increase students benefiting from interest-free scholarship by 5000. Decrease outlays for promoting science and technology for the first time.
DA (Ministry of Defense) / 4.79 / No change / To defer Futemma base relocation related cost. Drastic increase in expenditures related to realignment of U.S. forces in Japan. To defer Futemma base relocation related cost. Implement new naval escort.
MOE (Ministry of the Environment) / 0.21 / Decrease / Focus on biodiversity conference.
Focus on biodiversity conference to be held in Nagoya City in October 2010 and on natural energy proliferation.
With efforts to minimize annual spending by freezing a few minor Manifest items, major items of the DPJ’s Manifest will be implemented from 2010, but with current financial resource outlook, whether the government would be able to continue the implementation 2011 onwards is a question. Primary balance**, a barometer for soundness of the country’s financial condition, is expected to reach minus 23.65 trillion yen for 2010, with the biggest increase in deficit from the previous year in history. Combined total of outstanding debt for both central and local governments is expected to reach the biggest in history of 862 trillion yen at the end of 2010. Hatoyama administration needs to immediately get the balance sheet of annual spending and revenue in shape.
2. What is the possible effect on the economy?
The author views that the finalized budget is unlikely to contribute to improving the economy as expected, and the government’s economic policy management may well needs to be improved to meet the expectation of the citizens, economic and industry experts and the stock market.
1) 10 economy experts view differently but in general they are rather pessimistic.
According to Nikkei’s interviews to 10 economy experts, although their views varied, they agreed on the fact that the actual rate of GDP’s growth is expected to remain low. Their average outlook was 1.2%, which is below the government’s outlook of 1.4%. Effect on the economy ranged from +0.4% to -0.3%. 4 people said that there would be some positive effects because “family budget assistance” stimulates the economy, 3 people said that the total effect will be zero, and the remaining 3 people said that there would be negative effects because of the reduction of public projects.
With low GDP growth outlook and deflation to continue as mentioned in the previous article How Japan Can Get Out From 10 Year Deflation?, strong growth strategy to drive investment and stimulate consumer spending is inevitable, which requires economic policy management aligning with to the current global economy environment and Japanese competitiveness. However, many experts seem to feel that the current economic policy management is not up to date, based on the concept that was valid 20 years ago before the burst of the bubble economy (i.e. when the economy and domestic demand continued to grow), to which the author agrees.
2) The government is not taking appropriate and sufficient actions to make Japan strong and its economy grow.
Today, Japan is suffering from low GDP growth and deflation, and its financial status is one of the worst among developed countries, so what really should be focused on is, similarly to turnaround of ailing companies, eradicate unnecessary cost and debt, improve global competitiveness, and develop and execute growth strategy. However, the message of the finalized budgeting is NOT putting priority on improving environment for companies to compete in the global economy, and consequently to pass the burden to succeeding generations by issue of government bonds. The government intends to stimulate consumer spending but measures and actions to eliminate from citizens anxieties of their after-retirement life, the perquisites to stimulate consumer spending, are insufficient. The government needs to focus on expanding the total pie of the economy, i.e. growth, in order to create employment and establish sustainable social security systems.
Domestic demand expansion needs regulation revolution to promote entering industries with great needs such as healthcare, nursing care and child-care, which requires tough national coordination. Tough national coordination is also required for FTA conclusion meaning opening of agriculture market and so forth. However, with, the House of Councilors election coming up in summer 2010, it is highly unlikely that the government would take actions in these kinds of issues.
In the current economic environment in which Japan cannot possibly expect growth in domestic demand, Japan would need to rely on external demand, expanding business in emerging markets, and the prerequisites would be to create the environment in which Japanese companies improve competitiveness in the global market so that they can compete with their global counterparts. Such possible measures include decreasing corporate tax rate (currently 40%), which is far greater than other countries, and concluding FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with EU and other regions/countries similarly to what Korea is trying to do. Such measures had always been advocated by Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren) and other experts but the government does not seem to take actions.
What the government needs to do is take measures strategically to attract talents, technologies, capital, information and so forth from around the globe just like what Singapore is doing, as well as taking measures to create environment and systems mentioned above and focus on education to level up the skills and competencies of its citizens to make them competitive in the global economy. Unless the government first acknowledge that the world is flat as Thomas L. Friedman depicts in his book “The World Is Flat 3.0: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century" and change mindset to take actions accordingly, it is unlikely that the citizens acknowledge the reality and change their mindset.
3) Japanese companies and TSE started to take actions for survival at last. Are other players to follow?
Of course, Japanese companies also need to change their mindset; they seem to lack in “hungry and fighting spirit” unlike Korean counterparts who are fully aware that they need to win in the global market to survive with the small economy size of Korea. This may well be because as Mr. Toshihiko Fukui, the former Bank of Japan Governor, says in the interview with Nikkei according to the article of the newspaper dated December 27, that Japan has been enjoying the position of the second largest economy. The author fully understands what Mr. Fukui says and agrees; she worked in a Japanese electronics giant for many years until 2006 and during that time the Korean counterpart actually became more competitive in the global market, as company ranking of Forbes clearly indicated for example as well as other signs of defeat. But the position is soon likely to be replaced by China, and the global battle for survival is becoming tougher and tougher. Therefore, companies need to revive their fighting spirit to go back to the basics and strengthen product development and marketing (including branding) meeting customer needs and generate business by step by step sales, similarly to what they have done in the recovery period after the World War II.
The initiatives of Japanese FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Good) companies mentioned in the previous article "Japanese Food and FMCG Giants to Foster "Global Brands"is a sign that they are changing their mindset and starting to take actions. TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) to revise listing regulation as mentioned in the previous article "With Slow Japanese Stock Market Recovery TSE to Revise Listing Regulation" is a sign that TSE also started to take their action. In order for such initiatives to bear fruit, optimum environment needs to be created by all public sector players as well as mindset change and actions from all parties including the community and citizens. They all need to acknowledge the reality, and all players, public and private, need to tackle the problem together, from total optimization perspective.
* DPJ’s “Family Budget Assistance” (Source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author)
Key economy boosting measures that the DPJ promised as their Manifest to win the General Election held on August 30 2009. The scenario is to increase disposable income by directly providing benefits to family budget etc. and stimulate consumer spending. The DPJ intends to change from the LDP’s economic policy focusing on supporting companies to realize economic growth driven by domestic demand.
Main items of “family budget assistance” include providing allowances for children, freeing tuition fee for senior high school students, freeing motorways, abolishing temporary tariff rate etc. Their positive effects may well be converted to savings instead of being consumed unless anxieties for post-retirement lives and distrust of social security system are eliminated from citizens.
Items of “family budget assistance” / Measures to be implemented from 2010
Allowance for children / 13,000 yen/child per month to be provided.
Free tuition fee for senior high school students / Tuition fee for public senior high school students to be made free. Assistance to private senior high school students to be provided as well.
Income indemnity for farmer households / To be executed to nationwide rice farmer households.
Free motorways / Test demonstration for pilot regions.
** Primary Balance (Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)
Balance of payments calculated by subtracting new government issuance (new debt) from debt service cost (nation’s debt). If the calculation is in black (i.e. positive), fiscal condition is good, and if it is in red (i.e. negative), fiscal condition is bad. Japan has always been negative and its big challenge had always been to make a balance mid/long-term.
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported on Saturday 26th the Japanese government’s finalized 2010 budget plan, from which it became quite prominent that realizing the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) Manifest and acquiring its financial resources is incompatible. The government is to solve by issuing new government bond meaning drastically increasing the debt, but this is likely to have negative impact on the overall economy. It is high time for the government to develop and execute growth strategy, aligning with the Japan and worldwide current trend, and the high time for all parties (politicians and bureaucrats, academic world and all other public sector, companies and all other private sector and citizens) to change their mindset and tackle the problem of recovering the economy together.
1. What is the big picture of the finalized 2010 budget plan and how unsound is the financial condition?
General accounts totaled 9.2 trillion yen (+4.2% vs. PY), which is the biggest in the history. Looking in details, general expenditure increased from 51.7trillion yen to 53.5 trillion yen, local allocation tax etc. increased from 16.5 trillion yen to 17.5 trillion yen, and debt servicing cost increased from 20.2 trillion yen to 20.6%. Moreover, adjustment cost for settlement of 0.7 trillion yen was added.
With budgeting policy emphasizing local and family budget, the total expenditure expanded. Public projects was cut 1.3 trillion yen (-18%) and reviewing respective business and budget by task force members which was a first trial in Hatoyama administration contributed to cost reduction of 1 trillion yen. However, local tax allocation increased by 1 trillion yen, social security cost increased by 10% due to aging society, and 3 trillion yen was added as costs to realize major measures of DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan)’s Manifest such as family budget assistance*.
Regarding budget revenue, tax revenue is expected to decrease from 46.1 trillion yen to 37.4 trillion yen, so although non-tax revenue is expected to increase from 9.1 trillion yen to 10.6 trillion yen, the government decided to increase government bond from 33.3 trillion yen to 44.3 trillion yen to cover-up the insufficient financial resources. This means that dependence of the national budget on government bonds will be extremely high, almost 50%.
Major Expenditure Items by Ministries
(Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)
Ministry Name / Budget (trillion yen) / Increase/Decrease (vs PY) / Concept of Budgeting
MHLW (Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare) / 27.56 / Increase / Drastic increase with “family budget assistance” Increase by 2.4 trillion yen attributing to “family budget assistance” including allowance for children, lower medical expense and assistance of household with single parent.
MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) / 5.61 / Decrease / Expenditure for FOC motorways shrunk to 0.1 trillion yen. Public projects expenditure decreased drastically. Expenditure for FOC motorways cut from original request of 0.6 trillion yen to 0.1 trillion yen.
MIC (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) / 18.60 / Increase / Tax allocation increased by 1.1 trillion yen. Increase in local tax allocation received by local governments by 1.1 trillion yen, first time in 11 years. IT related budget focuses on promoting IT use.
METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) / 0.99 / Decrease / Focuses on supporting financing of SMB businesses. Focuses on supporting financing of SMB businesses. Increase in budget for supporting technical development for global warming countermeasures.
MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan) / 2.28 / Decrease / Drastic decrease in land improvement business. Full requested expenditures related to the Manifest including system to assist rice farmer households were booked. Drastic cut in expenditure for land improvement business supported by LDP.
MOFA (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan) / 0.66 / Decrease / Increase in supporting Afghanistan etc. Drastic increase in supporting Afghanistan and Pakistan. Cut in grant aid for third sector facilities.
MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology) / 5.60 / Increase / To free tuition fee for public senior high school students. To free tuition fee for public senior high school students. Assist 120 thousand yen/child for private senior high schools. Increase students benefiting from interest-free scholarship by 5000. Decrease outlays for promoting science and technology for the first time.
DA (Ministry of Defense) / 4.79 / No change / To defer Futemma base relocation related cost. Drastic increase in expenditures related to realignment of U.S. forces in Japan. To defer Futemma base relocation related cost. Implement new naval escort.
MOE (Ministry of the Environment) / 0.21 / Decrease / Focus on biodiversity conference.
Focus on biodiversity conference to be held in Nagoya City in October 2010 and on natural energy proliferation.
With efforts to minimize annual spending by freezing a few minor Manifest items, major items of the DPJ’s Manifest will be implemented from 2010, but with current financial resource outlook, whether the government would be able to continue the implementation 2011 onwards is a question. Primary balance**, a barometer for soundness of the country’s financial condition, is expected to reach minus 23.65 trillion yen for 2010, with the biggest increase in deficit from the previous year in history. Combined total of outstanding debt for both central and local governments is expected to reach the biggest in history of 862 trillion yen at the end of 2010. Hatoyama administration needs to immediately get the balance sheet of annual spending and revenue in shape.
2. What is the possible effect on the economy?
The author views that the finalized budget is unlikely to contribute to improving the economy as expected, and the government’s economic policy management may well needs to be improved to meet the expectation of the citizens, economic and industry experts and the stock market.
1) 10 economy experts view differently but in general they are rather pessimistic.
According to Nikkei’s interviews to 10 economy experts, although their views varied, they agreed on the fact that the actual rate of GDP’s growth is expected to remain low. Their average outlook was 1.2%, which is below the government’s outlook of 1.4%. Effect on the economy ranged from +0.4% to -0.3%. 4 people said that there would be some positive effects because “family budget assistance” stimulates the economy, 3 people said that the total effect will be zero, and the remaining 3 people said that there would be negative effects because of the reduction of public projects.
With low GDP growth outlook and deflation to continue as mentioned in the previous article How Japan Can Get Out From 10 Year Deflation?, strong growth strategy to drive investment and stimulate consumer spending is inevitable, which requires economic policy management aligning with to the current global economy environment and Japanese competitiveness. However, many experts seem to feel that the current economic policy management is not up to date, based on the concept that was valid 20 years ago before the burst of the bubble economy (i.e. when the economy and domestic demand continued to grow), to which the author agrees.
2) The government is not taking appropriate and sufficient actions to make Japan strong and its economy grow.
Today, Japan is suffering from low GDP growth and deflation, and its financial status is one of the worst among developed countries, so what really should be focused on is, similarly to turnaround of ailing companies, eradicate unnecessary cost and debt, improve global competitiveness, and develop and execute growth strategy. However, the message of the finalized budgeting is NOT putting priority on improving environment for companies to compete in the global economy, and consequently to pass the burden to succeeding generations by issue of government bonds. The government intends to stimulate consumer spending but measures and actions to eliminate from citizens anxieties of their after-retirement life, the perquisites to stimulate consumer spending, are insufficient. The government needs to focus on expanding the total pie of the economy, i.e. growth, in order to create employment and establish sustainable social security systems.
Domestic demand expansion needs regulation revolution to promote entering industries with great needs such as healthcare, nursing care and child-care, which requires tough national coordination. Tough national coordination is also required for FTA conclusion meaning opening of agriculture market and so forth. However, with, the House of Councilors election coming up in summer 2010, it is highly unlikely that the government would take actions in these kinds of issues.
In the current economic environment in which Japan cannot possibly expect growth in domestic demand, Japan would need to rely on external demand, expanding business in emerging markets, and the prerequisites would be to create the environment in which Japanese companies improve competitiveness in the global market so that they can compete with their global counterparts. Such possible measures include decreasing corporate tax rate (currently 40%), which is far greater than other countries, and concluding FTA (Free Trade Agreement) with EU and other regions/countries similarly to what Korea is trying to do. Such measures had always been advocated by Japan Business Federation (Nippon Keidanren) and other experts but the government does not seem to take actions.
What the government needs to do is take measures strategically to attract talents, technologies, capital, information and so forth from around the globe just like what Singapore is doing, as well as taking measures to create environment and systems mentioned above and focus on education to level up the skills and competencies of its citizens to make them competitive in the global economy. Unless the government first acknowledge that the world is flat as Thomas L. Friedman depicts in his book “The World Is Flat 3.0: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century" and change mindset to take actions accordingly, it is unlikely that the citizens acknowledge the reality and change their mindset.
3) Japanese companies and TSE started to take actions for survival at last. Are other players to follow?
Of course, Japanese companies also need to change their mindset; they seem to lack in “hungry and fighting spirit” unlike Korean counterparts who are fully aware that they need to win in the global market to survive with the small economy size of Korea. This may well be because as Mr. Toshihiko Fukui, the former Bank of Japan Governor, says in the interview with Nikkei according to the article of the newspaper dated December 27, that Japan has been enjoying the position of the second largest economy. The author fully understands what Mr. Fukui says and agrees; she worked in a Japanese electronics giant for many years until 2006 and during that time the Korean counterpart actually became more competitive in the global market, as company ranking of Forbes clearly indicated for example as well as other signs of defeat. But the position is soon likely to be replaced by China, and the global battle for survival is becoming tougher and tougher. Therefore, companies need to revive their fighting spirit to go back to the basics and strengthen product development and marketing (including branding) meeting customer needs and generate business by step by step sales, similarly to what they have done in the recovery period after the World War II.
The initiatives of Japanese FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Good) companies mentioned in the previous article "Japanese Food and FMCG Giants to Foster "Global Brands"is a sign that they are changing their mindset and starting to take actions. TSE (Tokyo Stock Exchange) to revise listing regulation as mentioned in the previous article "With Slow Japanese Stock Market Recovery TSE to Revise Listing Regulation" is a sign that TSE also started to take their action. In order for such initiatives to bear fruit, optimum environment needs to be created by all public sector players as well as mindset change and actions from all parties including the community and citizens. They all need to acknowledge the reality, and all players, public and private, need to tackle the problem together, from total optimization perspective.
* DPJ’s “Family Budget Assistance” (Source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author)
Key economy boosting measures that the DPJ promised as their Manifest to win the General Election held on August 30 2009. The scenario is to increase disposable income by directly providing benefits to family budget etc. and stimulate consumer spending. The DPJ intends to change from the LDP’s economic policy focusing on supporting companies to realize economic growth driven by domestic demand.
Main items of “family budget assistance” include providing allowances for children, freeing tuition fee for senior high school students, freeing motorways, abolishing temporary tariff rate etc. Their positive effects may well be converted to savings instead of being consumed unless anxieties for post-retirement lives and distrust of social security system are eliminated from citizens.
Items of “family budget assistance” / Measures to be implemented from 2010
Allowance for children / 13,000 yen/child per month to be provided.
Free tuition fee for senior high school students / Tuition fee for public senior high school students to be made free. Assistance to private senior high school students to be provided as well.
Income indemnity for farmer households / To be executed to nationwide rice farmer households.
Free motorways / Test demonstration for pilot regions.
** Primary Balance (Source: Nikkei, translated by the author)
Balance of payments calculated by subtracting new government issuance (new debt) from debt service cost (nation’s debt). If the calculation is in black (i.e. positive), fiscal condition is good, and if it is in red (i.e. negative), fiscal condition is bad. Japan has always been negative and its big challenge had always been to make a balance mid/long-term.
2009年12月13日日曜日
Japanese Tax Haven Application Rule to Change
Sunday, December 13, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Yesterday on December 12, Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported that the Japanese government has set policy of reviewing corporate tax system to change application rule of tax haven* with the objectives of eliminating tax dodge 2010 onwards. The government will lower the criteria of corporate tax burden of the regions and countries that the tax haven system is applicable for the first time, from the current 25% to just over 20%. Exceptions of the tax system will be more widely applied after the revision. These are all because emerging countries have been lowering corporate tax rate. This means bigger burden of corporate tax for Japanese companies, which could may well refrain them from starting and expanding their business in emerging countries. By reviewing the system, the Japanese government is to support Japanese companies starting and expanding business in growing markets.
1. Primary objective of changing the current tax haven application rule is to ease burden of Japanese companies.
Primary objective of the Japanese government reviewing the current corporate tax system is ease the burden of tax practices of Japanese companies. In a situation in which emerging countries have been aggressively lowering their corporate tax rate, it is not rationale to set the criteria of corporate rate tax rate for tax haven system application at 25%. And Ministry of Finance estimates that the decrease in corporate tax income by the corporate tax change is not critical.
2. Background of reviewing to change the system is the fact that corporate tax of Japan is the highest among developed countries.
Corporate tax of Japan is 40%, which is the highest among developed countries. And currently in principle, tax haven system is applicable to overseas affiliate companies located in regions and countries whose corporate tax rate is below 25%. When it is applied, a part of profit generated by the overseas affiliates is added to Japan HQ’s domestic income and the 40% of the sum is imposed as corporate tax. Under current criteria, it is quite possible that countries such as China, Korea, Vietnam and Russia, which Japanese companies are aggressive to enter and expand their business, are regarded as tax haven countries.
According to overseas business survey executed by METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry), out of overseas affiliates and subsidiaries (approximately 17,000 companies) of Japanese companies, half of them are located in tax haven countries under the current system. With problems of a Japanese company being imposed additionally for its affiliate located in Hong Kong which led to court case, Nippon Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) etc. have been requesting the government to review the current system. Therefore, the government has started to study to revise the criteria to just over 20%.
3. Currently there are exceptions to applying tax haven rule.
Under the current corporate tax system, there are exceptions to applying tax haven rule; i.e. there are some cases in which the rule mentioned above is not applied even if the corporate tax rate of countries and regions in which overseas affiliates are located is below 25%. Many companies leverage exceptions when, for example, more than half the trade of overseas affiliate is with non-affiliate companies.
Being exceptions, there are demerits such as companies bearing cost trading with non-affiliate companies. The government is to take this into account as well in reviewing the system. For example, they are to study to review the system so that the regional (e.g. Asia and Europe) HQs of Japanese manufacturers will not need to apply tax haven system even if their trade with non-affiliates is less than half the total trade.
4. The government will study and implement regulation to eliminate tax dodging of companies.
Taking the opportunity of changing the application of tax haven rule, the government will also set regulation to eliminate tax dodge of Japanese companies. The government will study to imposing corporate tax exclusively on incomes from assets such as interest and dividends for exceptions of tax haven system overseas affiliates. This is designed to eliminate tax dodge by Japanese parent company that has earned dividend by investing to overseas companies establishing substantive paper company in a third country. The U.S. has already transferred to this kind of system.
In fact, at the G20 (Pittsburgh) Summit held in September in which 20 regions/countries participated, the participants agreed to strengthen monitoring tax dodge of investors using tax haven system. The Japanese government is to closely collaborate to exchange information with respective countries about tax dodge while strengthening regulation of tax dodge from financial trade.
* Tax Haven
(Source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author)
Tax haven is country or region whose corporate tax rate and/or tax of interest and/or dividend is zero or extremely low. Well known are Cayman Islands and multi-national companies and financial institutions, hedge funds etc. have been applying tax haven countries in order to making escape from being imposed of corporate tax.
Japanese tax haven system is applicable to countries and regions whose corporate tax is below 25%, thus many people have been pointing out that this system have been applied to regions and countries which cannot be said that it is sufficiently at a low level. In fact, it is possible that this system is applied to countries such as China and Vietnam in which many Japanese companies have started business. The Japanese government has set exceptions but the criteria are too high and Japanese business world has been requesting for review.
Major exceptions for tax haven are as below.
1) Business criteria: Major business is not owning stocks and debts
2) Reality criteria: Offices exists at head office address.
3) Administration and control criteria: Administration and control of business is performed at head office address.
4) Non-affiliate criteria: Business is mainly done with non-affiliate companies.
Yesterday on December 12, Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported that the Japanese government has set policy of reviewing corporate tax system to change application rule of tax haven* with the objectives of eliminating tax dodge 2010 onwards. The government will lower the criteria of corporate tax burden of the regions and countries that the tax haven system is applicable for the first time, from the current 25% to just over 20%. Exceptions of the tax system will be more widely applied after the revision. These are all because emerging countries have been lowering corporate tax rate. This means bigger burden of corporate tax for Japanese companies, which could may well refrain them from starting and expanding their business in emerging countries. By reviewing the system, the Japanese government is to support Japanese companies starting and expanding business in growing markets.
1. Primary objective of changing the current tax haven application rule is to ease burden of Japanese companies.
Primary objective of the Japanese government reviewing the current corporate tax system is ease the burden of tax practices of Japanese companies. In a situation in which emerging countries have been aggressively lowering their corporate tax rate, it is not rationale to set the criteria of corporate rate tax rate for tax haven system application at 25%. And Ministry of Finance estimates that the decrease in corporate tax income by the corporate tax change is not critical.
2. Background of reviewing to change the system is the fact that corporate tax of Japan is the highest among developed countries.
Corporate tax of Japan is 40%, which is the highest among developed countries. And currently in principle, tax haven system is applicable to overseas affiliate companies located in regions and countries whose corporate tax rate is below 25%. When it is applied, a part of profit generated by the overseas affiliates is added to Japan HQ’s domestic income and the 40% of the sum is imposed as corporate tax. Under current criteria, it is quite possible that countries such as China, Korea, Vietnam and Russia, which Japanese companies are aggressive to enter and expand their business, are regarded as tax haven countries.
According to overseas business survey executed by METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry), out of overseas affiliates and subsidiaries (approximately 17,000 companies) of Japanese companies, half of them are located in tax haven countries under the current system. With problems of a Japanese company being imposed additionally for its affiliate located in Hong Kong which led to court case, Nippon Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) etc. have been requesting the government to review the current system. Therefore, the government has started to study to revise the criteria to just over 20%.
3. Currently there are exceptions to applying tax haven rule.
Under the current corporate tax system, there are exceptions to applying tax haven rule; i.e. there are some cases in which the rule mentioned above is not applied even if the corporate tax rate of countries and regions in which overseas affiliates are located is below 25%. Many companies leverage exceptions when, for example, more than half the trade of overseas affiliate is with non-affiliate companies.
Being exceptions, there are demerits such as companies bearing cost trading with non-affiliate companies. The government is to take this into account as well in reviewing the system. For example, they are to study to review the system so that the regional (e.g. Asia and Europe) HQs of Japanese manufacturers will not need to apply tax haven system even if their trade with non-affiliates is less than half the total trade.
4. The government will study and implement regulation to eliminate tax dodging of companies.
Taking the opportunity of changing the application of tax haven rule, the government will also set regulation to eliminate tax dodge of Japanese companies. The government will study to imposing corporate tax exclusively on incomes from assets such as interest and dividends for exceptions of tax haven system overseas affiliates. This is designed to eliminate tax dodge by Japanese parent company that has earned dividend by investing to overseas companies establishing substantive paper company in a third country. The U.S. has already transferred to this kind of system.
In fact, at the G20 (Pittsburgh) Summit held in September in which 20 regions/countries participated, the participants agreed to strengthen monitoring tax dodge of investors using tax haven system. The Japanese government is to closely collaborate to exchange information with respective countries about tax dodge while strengthening regulation of tax dodge from financial trade.
* Tax Haven
(Source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author)
Tax haven is country or region whose corporate tax rate and/or tax of interest and/or dividend is zero or extremely low. Well known are Cayman Islands and multi-national companies and financial institutions, hedge funds etc. have been applying tax haven countries in order to making escape from being imposed of corporate tax.
Japanese tax haven system is applicable to countries and regions whose corporate tax is below 25%, thus many people have been pointing out that this system have been applied to regions and countries which cannot be said that it is sufficiently at a low level. In fact, it is possible that this system is applied to countries such as China and Vietnam in which many Japanese companies have started business. The Japanese government has set exceptions but the criteria are too high and Japanese business world has been requesting for review.
Major exceptions for tax haven are as below.
1) Business criteria: Major business is not owning stocks and debts
2) Reality criteria: Offices exists at head office address.
3) Administration and control criteria: Administration and control of business is performed at head office address.
4) Non-affiliate criteria: Business is mainly done with non-affiliate companies.
2009年11月7日土曜日
Japanese Companies to Bottom-Out Fiscal Year Ending March 2010, but Demands Caution
November 7, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Today, Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported that financial performance of Japanese listed companies in total to bottom-out by the end of the fiscal year (FY) ending March 2010, according to estimation of head quarters of the companies. Consolidated profit for FY ending March 2010 is estimated to be +0.7% vs. previous year, although the estimation in August was -9%. This is because of reduction in fixed cost* and economy-boosting measures of governments of various countries, which led to drastic improvement in profit and loss (P/L) of consumer electronics and automobiles. However, there are anxieties such as ongoing high yen situation and improvement of business climate likely to terminate after January 2010. Therefore, some experts view that outlook demands caution.
Increase/Decrease of Consolidated Profit by Industry: Consumer Electronics and Automobile are the Drivers of Recovery
Source: Nikkei (translated by the author)
Increase From Previous Year
Electronics / 1 .484 trillion yen
Oil / 734 billion yen
Automobile and Components / 50.63 billion yen
Electricity etc. / 1.263 trillion yen
Decrease From Previous Year
Steel / -1.2145 trillion yen
Trading / -61.84 billion yen
Machinery / -36.91 billion yen
Marine Transportation etc. / -1.478 trillion yen
Nikkei reports that the data used are of 940 companies who have finished making financial announcement for first half of 2009 (April-September 2009) by November 6, 2009 (excluding financial institutions). These companies cover 78% of total market value.
According to the current analysis, consolidated profit for FY ending March 2010 is expected to be +0.7% from previous year, which is 9.8 trillion yen. Some experts view that the speed of recovery is more than anticipated and it is possible that the final performance achievement would be better than this. Consolidated profit of listed companies was directly and negatively impacted by the worldwide economic crisis, resulting in decrease in profit first time in 7 quarters, by more than 60%.
Improvement in revenue by quarter has been evident since January this year. January-March in loss was the bottom, and it went back in black in total for April-June, and the profit increased for July-September, meaning consecutive improvement. This is the reason for the favourable outlook for the total FY year ending March 2010.
The driver for the performance improvement is reduction in fixed cost. Sales are estimated to be approximately 343 trillion yen which is -13% from previous year but the profit is estimated to be about the same with previous year because cost reduction by companies is ongoing with the greater speed than originally assumed. For example, Komatsu is to double the amount of fixed cost reduction to 50 billion yen. Thus, profit ratio of listed companies in general is to improve, highlighting the recovery driven by rationalization.
Economy-boosting measures by the government played as a driver for the performance improvement as well. Consumer electronics that posted large amount of loss benefited from eco-point system, an economy-boosting measure implemented by the Japanese government, and their sales (e.g. TV) increased, leading to increase in profit by almost 1.5 trillion yen. Automobiles and components are also estimated to increase their profit by approximately 500 billion yen, going back to black. For example, Nissan is benefiting from positive effect of government’s economy-boosting measures designed to promote buying new cars to replace old ones, to revise its original outlook of increasing loss to 20 billion yen in profit. Improvements in oil attributing to increase in resource price are also evident.
On the other hand, financial performance of steels and machinery are deteriorating. This is because their primary customers of automobile and electronics are still cautious of facility investment and production increase. Trading companies are also to decrease their profit because their automobile and steel businesses are struggling.
The outlook for the future remains uncertain. There are many companies that out-perform vs. original plan for April-September but estimation for total year remains the same. For example, VP of JFE Holdings comments that it is doubtful whether the improvement in steel stock demand continues, and that high yen is also an anxiety factor. Many management executives are not confident in sustainable business improvement because of doldrums of consumer spending and employment.
* Brief Explanation on Fixed Cost (source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author）
Fixed Cost is the cost that is constant regardless of fluctuation in sales of a company such as employment cost of back office department and depreciation cost of plant and equipment. On the other hand, cost that fluctuates linking with by production volume and sales such as raw material cost and operating labour cost are called “variable cost”. Many companies cut fixed cost to quickly recover their profitability when they face drop in sales.
Sales equaling total of fixed and variable cost is called break even point. Dividing this by sales is break even point ratio. According to Nikkei’s analysis of 1633 listed companies (non-consolidated), this ratio was about 80% before 2007 but for 2008 it increased to more than 89% because the reduction in fixed cost was not in par with drastic drop in sales and revenue.
Today, Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported that financial performance of Japanese listed companies in total to bottom-out by the end of the fiscal year (FY) ending March 2010, according to estimation of head quarters of the companies. Consolidated profit for FY ending March 2010 is estimated to be +0.7% vs. previous year, although the estimation in August was -9%. This is because of reduction in fixed cost* and economy-boosting measures of governments of various countries, which led to drastic improvement in profit and loss (P/L) of consumer electronics and automobiles. However, there are anxieties such as ongoing high yen situation and improvement of business climate likely to terminate after January 2010. Therefore, some experts view that outlook demands caution.
Increase/Decrease of Consolidated Profit by Industry: Consumer Electronics and Automobile are the Drivers of Recovery
Source: Nikkei (translated by the author)
Increase From Previous Year
Electronics / 1 .484 trillion yen
Oil / 734 billion yen
Automobile and Components / 50.63 billion yen
Electricity etc. / 1.263 trillion yen
Decrease From Previous Year
Steel / -1.2145 trillion yen
Trading / -61.84 billion yen
Machinery / -36.91 billion yen
Marine Transportation etc. / -1.478 trillion yen
Nikkei reports that the data used are of 940 companies who have finished making financial announcement for first half of 2009 (April-September 2009) by November 6, 2009 (excluding financial institutions). These companies cover 78% of total market value.
According to the current analysis, consolidated profit for FY ending March 2010 is expected to be +0.7% from previous year, which is 9.8 trillion yen. Some experts view that the speed of recovery is more than anticipated and it is possible that the final performance achievement would be better than this. Consolidated profit of listed companies was directly and negatively impacted by the worldwide economic crisis, resulting in decrease in profit first time in 7 quarters, by more than 60%.
Improvement in revenue by quarter has been evident since January this year. January-March in loss was the bottom, and it went back in black in total for April-June, and the profit increased for July-September, meaning consecutive improvement. This is the reason for the favourable outlook for the total FY year ending March 2010.
The driver for the performance improvement is reduction in fixed cost. Sales are estimated to be approximately 343 trillion yen which is -13% from previous year but the profit is estimated to be about the same with previous year because cost reduction by companies is ongoing with the greater speed than originally assumed. For example, Komatsu is to double the amount of fixed cost reduction to 50 billion yen. Thus, profit ratio of listed companies in general is to improve, highlighting the recovery driven by rationalization.
Economy-boosting measures by the government played as a driver for the performance improvement as well. Consumer electronics that posted large amount of loss benefited from eco-point system, an economy-boosting measure implemented by the Japanese government, and their sales (e.g. TV) increased, leading to increase in profit by almost 1.5 trillion yen. Automobiles and components are also estimated to increase their profit by approximately 500 billion yen, going back to black. For example, Nissan is benefiting from positive effect of government’s economy-boosting measures designed to promote buying new cars to replace old ones, to revise its original outlook of increasing loss to 20 billion yen in profit. Improvements in oil attributing to increase in resource price are also evident.
On the other hand, financial performance of steels and machinery are deteriorating. This is because their primary customers of automobile and electronics are still cautious of facility investment and production increase. Trading companies are also to decrease their profit because their automobile and steel businesses are struggling.
The outlook for the future remains uncertain. There are many companies that out-perform vs. original plan for April-September but estimation for total year remains the same. For example, VP of JFE Holdings comments that it is doubtful whether the improvement in steel stock demand continues, and that high yen is also an anxiety factor. Many management executives are not confident in sustainable business improvement because of doldrums of consumer spending and employment.
* Brief Explanation on Fixed Cost (source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author）
Fixed Cost is the cost that is constant regardless of fluctuation in sales of a company such as employment cost of back office department and depreciation cost of plant and equipment. On the other hand, cost that fluctuates linking with by production volume and sales such as raw material cost and operating labour cost are called “variable cost”. Many companies cut fixed cost to quickly recover their profitability when they face drop in sales.
Sales equaling total of fixed and variable cost is called break even point. Dividing this by sales is break even point ratio. According to Nikkei’s analysis of 1633 listed companies (non-consolidated), this ratio was about 80% before 2007 but for 2008 it increased to more than 89% because the reduction in fixed cost was not in par with drastic drop in sales and revenue.
2009年11月1日日曜日
Financial Improvement in Japanese Listed Companies
November 1, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Today, Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported that in general financial performance of Japanese listed companies has been continuously improving for two consecutive quarters. Nikkei analyzed financial performance of listed companies for July-September 2009, and the result was that the total consolidated profit was 2.3 times that of April-June 2009, meaning improvement for two consecutive quarters. The improvement is because of rationalization/cost reduction efforts especially of manufacturers and termination of sales drop attributing to economy-boosting measures* by the government of respective countries. Having said that, whether the performance improvement continues is a question because the positive effect of government policies has taken a round and the high yen still continues.
Consolidated Profits of Major Companies (100 million yen)
Source: Nikkei (translated by the author)
Company Name / July-September / April-June
Increase in Black Companies
Honda / 661 / 54
Mitsubishi Corporation / 831 / 619
Komatsu / 97 / 87
Returning to Black Companies
Panasonic / 253 / -517
JFE / 98 / -672
Mitsui OSK Lines / 14 / -114
Decrease in Red Companies
Hitachi / -293 / -808
Nippon Steel / -302 / -556
Sony / -170 / -329
Deterioration in Performance Companies
Nintendo / 457 / 648
Japan Tabacco / 563 / 788
Kawasaki Kinsen / -271 / -227
Notes: EBIT (Earnings before Income Tax) for companies using GAAP, profit in Japan auditing principle for others
Nikkei reports that the data used for analysis is of 527 companies that have finished making financial announcement for 2009 Q3 by October 30, 2009 (excluding financial institutions). These companies cover 63% of total market value industry-wide.
Their performance was negatively impacted by the worldwide economic crisis and went to red January-March. It went back to black in total April-June (97.49 million yen in black) with rationalization but manufacturers remained in red in total by 25.47 billion yen. And for July-September their performance in total was in black by 2.2021 trillion yen, and manufacturers in total also returned to black after three quarters by 81.58 billion yen. 68% of companies have improved from April-June.
Increase in sales was the driver for performance improvement. Consolidated sales for July-September increased by 10% from April-June, marking the first sales increase of a quarter (vs. previous quarter) after four quarters. Revenue of manufacturing companies increased by 12% from the previous quarter.
Favourable Japan domestic market sales also contributed to performance improvement. This was driven by economy-boosting measures designed to promote consumer purchase of environmentally-friendly products. Honda increased its sales by 3% and Mazuda by 31% from previous quarter with the economy-boosting measures, leading to favourable sales of fuel-efficient cars benefiting from tax reduction of eco-friendly cars (eco = ecology & economy). Panasonic also benefited from economy-boosting measures and its domestic sales/revenue of TV and washing machine increased by 9%. Steel giants that supply materials including Nippon Steel and other three companies increased their sales/revenue.
Aggressive demand of China and other emerging countries also contributed to performance improvement. LCD sales of Sharp for July-September were 22.23 billion yen which was 26% increase from the previous quarter. This highly attributes to Chinese government’s measures designed to promote penetration of consumer electronics in which 13% cash back is given as subsidy to consumers who purchase consumer electronics.
Further rationalization efforts by manufacturers also greatly contributed to performance improvement. Fujitsu reduced cost by 40 billion yen which led to returning to black for July-September. Toshiba originally planned to cut fixed cost by 67 billion yen but increased the amount of fixed cost cut to 200 billion yen for April-September.
Although the performance has been improving, performance for 2009 for total industry is still at low level compared with previous year of 2008 and there are still concerns; therefore, the outlook is not necessarily bright. 2009 sales is 23% and profit is 42% of 2008. Demand recovery of developed countries is still ongoing, and Sony’s CFO comments that Christmas season also needs to be promoted with cautiousness. Senescence of economy-boosting measures and high yen are also concerns. Since incentives of respective countries designed to promote buying new cars to replace old ones is to end soon, it is quite possible that there comes a “rebound” after April 2010, as Honda’s VP comments. Three ship giants including NYK Logistics made downward revision of their performance outlook for fiscal year ending March 2010, but they may need to further make downward revision because of high yen.
*Brief Explanation on Economy-Boosting Measures
(source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author）
This is policies by the government including financial policy with the objectives of stabilizing economic situation. With worldwide economic crisis, government of respective countries one after another adopted policies to stimulate consumer spending, leading to economic recovery. In Japan, incentives to promote consumers purchasing environmentally-friendly products were given for 2009 (due to end March 2010). Tax reduction and subsidies were given for consumers buying eco-friendly cars. Also in Japan, eco-point system in which points achieved by purchasing energy-saving consumer electronics can be changed with local specialty products. In the U.S, subsidy for buying fuel-efficient cars to replace old ones was provided (ended August 2009). Germany also adopted the same incentive (ended September 2009). And China adopted a tax incentive measure for consumers buying small cars (due until end of 2009) and a subsidy incentive for consumers buying consumer electronics (due until 2012).
Today, Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy/business and politics, reported that in general financial performance of Japanese listed companies has been continuously improving for two consecutive quarters. Nikkei analyzed financial performance of listed companies for July-September 2009, and the result was that the total consolidated profit was 2.3 times that of April-June 2009, meaning improvement for two consecutive quarters. The improvement is because of rationalization/cost reduction efforts especially of manufacturers and termination of sales drop attributing to economy-boosting measures* by the government of respective countries. Having said that, whether the performance improvement continues is a question because the positive effect of government policies has taken a round and the high yen still continues.
Consolidated Profits of Major Companies (100 million yen)
Source: Nikkei (translated by the author)
Company Name / July-September / April-June
Increase in Black Companies
Honda / 661 / 54
Mitsubishi Corporation / 831 / 619
Komatsu / 97 / 87
Returning to Black Companies
Panasonic / 253 / -517
JFE / 98 / -672
Mitsui OSK Lines / 14 / -114
Decrease in Red Companies
Hitachi / -293 / -808
Nippon Steel / -302 / -556
Sony / -170 / -329
Deterioration in Performance Companies
Nintendo / 457 / 648
Japan Tabacco / 563 / 788
Kawasaki Kinsen / -271 / -227
Notes: EBIT (Earnings before Income Tax) for companies using GAAP, profit in Japan auditing principle for others
Nikkei reports that the data used for analysis is of 527 companies that have finished making financial announcement for 2009 Q3 by October 30, 2009 (excluding financial institutions). These companies cover 63% of total market value industry-wide.
Their performance was negatively impacted by the worldwide economic crisis and went to red January-March. It went back to black in total April-June (97.49 million yen in black) with rationalization but manufacturers remained in red in total by 25.47 billion yen. And for July-September their performance in total was in black by 2.2021 trillion yen, and manufacturers in total also returned to black after three quarters by 81.58 billion yen. 68% of companies have improved from April-June.
Increase in sales was the driver for performance improvement. Consolidated sales for July-September increased by 10% from April-June, marking the first sales increase of a quarter (vs. previous quarter) after four quarters. Revenue of manufacturing companies increased by 12% from the previous quarter.
Favourable Japan domestic market sales also contributed to performance improvement. This was driven by economy-boosting measures designed to promote consumer purchase of environmentally-friendly products. Honda increased its sales by 3% and Mazuda by 31% from previous quarter with the economy-boosting measures, leading to favourable sales of fuel-efficient cars benefiting from tax reduction of eco-friendly cars (eco = ecology & economy). Panasonic also benefited from economy-boosting measures and its domestic sales/revenue of TV and washing machine increased by 9%. Steel giants that supply materials including Nippon Steel and other three companies increased their sales/revenue.
Aggressive demand of China and other emerging countries also contributed to performance improvement. LCD sales of Sharp for July-September were 22.23 billion yen which was 26% increase from the previous quarter. This highly attributes to Chinese government’s measures designed to promote penetration of consumer electronics in which 13% cash back is given as subsidy to consumers who purchase consumer electronics.
Further rationalization efforts by manufacturers also greatly contributed to performance improvement. Fujitsu reduced cost by 40 billion yen which led to returning to black for July-September. Toshiba originally planned to cut fixed cost by 67 billion yen but increased the amount of fixed cost cut to 200 billion yen for April-September.
Although the performance has been improving, performance for 2009 for total industry is still at low level compared with previous year of 2008 and there are still concerns; therefore, the outlook is not necessarily bright. 2009 sales is 23% and profit is 42% of 2008. Demand recovery of developed countries is still ongoing, and Sony’s CFO comments that Christmas season also needs to be promoted with cautiousness. Senescence of economy-boosting measures and high yen are also concerns. Since incentives of respective countries designed to promote buying new cars to replace old ones is to end soon, it is quite possible that there comes a “rebound” after April 2010, as Honda’s VP comments. Three ship giants including NYK Logistics made downward revision of their performance outlook for fiscal year ending March 2010, but they may need to further make downward revision because of high yen.
*Brief Explanation on Economy-Boosting Measures
(source: Nikkei, edited and translated by the author）
This is policies by the government including financial policy with the objectives of stabilizing economic situation. With worldwide economic crisis, government of respective countries one after another adopted policies to stimulate consumer spending, leading to economic recovery. In Japan, incentives to promote consumers purchasing environmentally-friendly products were given for 2009 (due to end March 2010). Tax reduction and subsidies were given for consumers buying eco-friendly cars. Also in Japan, eco-point system in which points achieved by purchasing energy-saving consumer electronics can be changed with local specialty products. In the U.S, subsidy for buying fuel-efficient cars to replace old ones was provided (ended August 2009). Germany also adopted the same incentive (ended September 2009). And China adopted a tax incentive measure for consumers buying small cars (due until end of 2009) and a subsidy incentive for consumers buying consumer electronics (due until 2012).
2009年10月25日日曜日
JAL to be GM of Japan – Turnaround under Government’s Control
October 25, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Today Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, reported that on October 24, the Japanese government finalized the policy of aiding turnaround of JAL (Japan Air Lines) by making JAL leverage public institution of “Company Turnaround Aid Institution”. Related ministers will discuss this issue and officially announce the policy by the end of this month, with the objective of reducing excess debt under the government’s control and develop drastic restructuring plan. The institution will execute bridge financing etc. to abolish credit uneasiness of JAL. The government will wait for the restructuring plan then study increase capital by public funding as a last resort. More drastic solution is to be studied and developed for pension debt reduction which is currently very slow in progress. Restructuring plan development under strong government’s control is to start at last.
According to Nikkei, the outlook of the JAL turnaround is as below.
Capital increase: Current restructuring plan is 300 billon yen including public funding. The government’s policy includes leveraging Company Turnaround Aid Institution to insert capital by the end of 2009.
Debt write-off: Current plan is 220 billion yen. The government’s policy is to convincing syndicates of banks to accept debt write-offs, on condition that JAL will drastically restructure with public funding.
Debt-for-equity swap: Current plan is 30 billion yen. The government’s policy is to convincing syndicates of banks to accept debt-for-equity swap, on condition that JAL will drastically restructure with public funding.
Bridge financing: Current plan is 200 billion yen. The government’s policy is to execute this by the end of November 2009.
Pension debt reduction: Current plan is reducing insufficient accumulation to 100 billion yen from 330 billion yen. The government’s policy is change to more drastic plan.
Restructuring: Current plan includes cutting almost 9000 jobs and abolishing 45-50 routes by 2014.
Capital deficit: Current estimation is up to 270 billion yen.
JAL’s turnaround has been going through a trial and error process as below.
June 30: 100 billion yen financing agreement with Development Bank of Japan etc. froze.
August 7: April-June consolidated financial result was in red by 99 billion yen.
August 21: Starting negotiation of integrating air cargo business with NYK (Nippon Yusen Kaisha) Line.
Beginning of September: Alliance negotiation with Delta and American Airlines including financing came to light.
September 15: Draft of management improvement plan with pillars of cutting 68000 jobs and abolishing total of domestic and international 50 routes proposed at blue-ribbon panel.
September 25: A task force directly controlled by Mr. Maehara, Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism established, marking the start of reviewing the current turnaround plan.
October 13: The task force proposed a turnaround plan draft to financial institutes etc. requesting them to accept debt write-offs of 300 billion yen in total.
October 20: The task force made the revised draft including increase of capital of 300 billion yen by public funding etc.
The Japanese government finalized the policy of aiding turnaround of JAL (Japan Air Lines) by making JAL leverage public funding by Company Turnaround Aid Institution because of the tough reality that they would not be able to win understanding and support from syndicates of banks without strong control and interference from the government. Under a situation of extreme funding difficulties, the government decided to back-up in full scale. Hatoyama administration cannot fail this turnaround with wall at their back; as Mr. Maehara states, we cannot have a situation in which we do not have flights and allow inconvenience to travellers. However, there are many hurdles and obstacles to overcome and the outlook is not necessarily bright.
The turnaround is not only about financing and debt write-offs. It is really all about whether the mindset of current JAL employees and retired workers, and the whether the system and culture of the entire company change from the current “the government will foot the bill” culture. It is only when the company totally change from inside to an organization that it will start creating value to generate revenue with optimum cost so that financing/cash flow management will be a sound one.
Today Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, reported that on October 24, the Japanese government finalized the policy of aiding turnaround of JAL (Japan Air Lines) by making JAL leverage public institution of “Company Turnaround Aid Institution”. Related ministers will discuss this issue and officially announce the policy by the end of this month, with the objective of reducing excess debt under the government’s control and develop drastic restructuring plan. The institution will execute bridge financing etc. to abolish credit uneasiness of JAL. The government will wait for the restructuring plan then study increase capital by public funding as a last resort. More drastic solution is to be studied and developed for pension debt reduction which is currently very slow in progress. Restructuring plan development under strong government’s control is to start at last.
According to Nikkei, the outlook of the JAL turnaround is as below.
Capital increase: Current restructuring plan is 300 billon yen including public funding. The government’s policy includes leveraging Company Turnaround Aid Institution to insert capital by the end of 2009.
Debt write-off: Current plan is 220 billion yen. The government’s policy is to convincing syndicates of banks to accept debt write-offs, on condition that JAL will drastically restructure with public funding.
Debt-for-equity swap: Current plan is 30 billion yen. The government’s policy is to convincing syndicates of banks to accept debt-for-equity swap, on condition that JAL will drastically restructure with public funding.
Bridge financing: Current plan is 200 billion yen. The government’s policy is to execute this by the end of November 2009.
Pension debt reduction: Current plan is reducing insufficient accumulation to 100 billion yen from 330 billion yen. The government’s policy is change to more drastic plan.
Restructuring: Current plan includes cutting almost 9000 jobs and abolishing 45-50 routes by 2014.
Capital deficit: Current estimation is up to 270 billion yen.
JAL’s turnaround has been going through a trial and error process as below.
June 30: 100 billion yen financing agreement with Development Bank of Japan etc. froze.
August 7: April-June consolidated financial result was in red by 99 billion yen.
August 21: Starting negotiation of integrating air cargo business with NYK (Nippon Yusen Kaisha) Line.
Beginning of September: Alliance negotiation with Delta and American Airlines including financing came to light.
September 15: Draft of management improvement plan with pillars of cutting 68000 jobs and abolishing total of domestic and international 50 routes proposed at blue-ribbon panel.
September 25: A task force directly controlled by Mr. Maehara, Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism established, marking the start of reviewing the current turnaround plan.
October 13: The task force proposed a turnaround plan draft to financial institutes etc. requesting them to accept debt write-offs of 300 billion yen in total.
October 20: The task force made the revised draft including increase of capital of 300 billion yen by public funding etc.
The Japanese government finalized the policy of aiding turnaround of JAL (Japan Air Lines) by making JAL leverage public funding by Company Turnaround Aid Institution because of the tough reality that they would not be able to win understanding and support from syndicates of banks without strong control and interference from the government. Under a situation of extreme funding difficulties, the government decided to back-up in full scale. Hatoyama administration cannot fail this turnaround with wall at their back; as Mr. Maehara states, we cannot have a situation in which we do not have flights and allow inconvenience to travellers. However, there are many hurdles and obstacles to overcome and the outlook is not necessarily bright.
The turnaround is not only about financing and debt write-offs. It is really all about whether the mindset of current JAL employees and retired workers, and the whether the system and culture of the entire company change from the current “the government will foot the bill” culture. It is only when the company totally change from inside to an organization that it will start creating value to generate revenue with optimum cost so that financing/cash flow management will be a sound one.
2009年9月23日水曜日
Japan Takes Lead in GHG Emission Reduction in the UN’s Climate Change Summit
Wednesday, September 23, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Mr. Hatoyama, the new Japanese Prime Minister, made a speech pledging Japan’s mid-term target of 25% GHG (global greenhouse gas = CO2) emission reduction vs.1990 by 2020 at the United Nation’s Climate Change Summit held on September 22 in New York, his debut to the diplomatic setting. He also advocated his initiative of providing to developing and emerging countries Japan’s energy saving technologies and capital aid to help them drive global warming countermeasures. His speech in English won great applause and appreciation in the summit, and it is probably the first time that a speech made by a Japanese Prime Minister won such an applause. However, his aggressive target has not been provoking positive reactions back in Japan.
1. Facts On GHG Emission Reduction Mid-Term Target
Mid-term target of reducing GHG emission is the primary focus of the negotiation among participant countries on post Kyoto Protocol (COP3) after 2013, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change / UNFCCC, FCCC. The deadline of the negotiation is COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009 to be held in Denmark this year.
2. Background of Prime Minister Mr. Hatoyama’s Speech
The target set by the former Prime Minister, Mr. Aso, was 15% reduction vs.2005 (8% reduction vs. 1990); therefore, it is evident that Mr. Hatoyama’s target is extremely aggressive (equivalent to 30% reduction vs. 2005). He had set this target as his policy, mentioned in his speeches in Tokyo earlier this month, and announced to Japanese media on 20th this month, although he may well have been aware that there would be resistances from Japan domestic (industries and economy opinion leaders). His intention is to take the initiative in the upcoming international negotiation settings by advocating aggressive target and supporting measures in his debut diplomacy setting in his own words. (First policy he set was taking the initiative from bureaucrats in making speeches at press conferences etc. so that politicians will be delivering their message in their own words). Such a “performance” in the international community conference symbolizes and delivers strong message on the change in political administration and of his style of politics, which is “politician taking the initiative”.
- 25% Reduction of CO2, Message to be Delivered in Upcoming Diplomatic Settings by Prime Minister Mr.Hatoyama
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/new-japanese-government-officially.html
- How Japanese Government to Develop New Information Disclosure System with Media, Achieving Objectives & Promoting Interactive Communication with Media
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/how-japanese-government-ti-develop-new.html
The new target announced is the most aggressive among all participant countries, as is shown from the table below. (Source: September 23 Japanese article from Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics; translated by the author).
GHG Emission Reduction Target by 2020 of Developed Countries
(The reason that some target is not specific is that the target is specified under specific condition such as “in the case which other countries advocate sufficient reduction target”)
Country Name / Reduction Rate (%) / Standard Year / Availability of Purchasing Emission Quotas
Japan / 25 / 1990 / yes
The U.S. / 14 / 2005 -
EU / 20 - 30 / 1990 / yes
Canada / 20 / 2006 / -
Russia / 10 - 15 / 1990 / -
Switzerland / 20 - 30 / 1990 / yes
Australia / 5 - 25 / 2000 / yes
* Composed by Nikkei based on documents on framework of the U.N. climate change agreement owned by the agreement offices
3. How Mr. Hatoyama Was Careful In Making His Speech
Prime Minister Mr. Hatoyama was careful in making his speech, not forgetting to be considerate in presenting such an aggressive target. His speech included concrete measures compared with his previous speeches made in Tokyo, Japan, but he deliberately made the expression regarding “reduction compared with which year“ not to be too specific, using the expression such as “if I would state comparing with 1990” instead of “vs. 1990”, taking into consideration of the U.S. who had set the 2005 as the standard year in setting the target. He also was careful to avoid misunderstanding from other countries that Japan is prominent in presenting such an aggressive target. He did so by encouraging major GHG emission countries including the U.S., China and India to actively join in his initiative, advocating his Hatoyama initiatives including the principles below.
Hatoyama Initiatives
1) Public and private sectors of developed countries will contribute to additional capital aid.
2) Rules for measuring the effectiveness of aid will be developed.
3) Co-existence of capital aid and preservation of intellectual property right will be fulfilled.
4. Positive Reactions From The International Community
The speech was highly evaluated, with positive comments from participants. The overall reaction from the international community is positive from each standpoint.
The U.S. gave positive reaction backed up by President Obama’s positive speech in the summit, who said that countermeasure for global warming is the U.S. focus and is resolved to take actions. Regarding the reduction target he emphasized that both developed and developing countries need to take responsibility to achieve the target. He also showed his intention of reaching international consensus on this issue at CPO15 to be held in December in Copenhagen, Denmark. He advocated the need of making consensus among all countries including emerging countries, stating hat the only solution is all major countries collaborate to take measures, while developing countries (that had been emitting global warming gasses) have responsibilities to initiate the discussion.
EU evaluated the Japanese aggressive target. EU had been positive in activating trading CO2 emission quotas among countries with the objective of reducing CO2 emission globally, and therefore they would like to deepen collaboration with Japan and lead debate on this issue in the international community. Mr. Okada, the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, had meetings with Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, the current chairperson of EU, and Spain. The EU side agreed on the importance of solving climate change issue and highly evaluated Japan’s mid-term target of 25% reduction of CO2 emission vs.1990. In addition, the Minister of Climate Change and Energy of Denmark also evaluated the aggressive target of Japan.
Reactions from developing and emerging countries are subtle but not negative at all. Emerging countries including China and India have been strengthening initiatives to reduce global warming gasses in individual sectors such as generation of electricity. One point to note is that their consistent stance is that it is the developed countries responsible for the past global warming that should commit to the aggressive reduction target to be achieved by 2020.
5. Negative Reactions from Japan Domestic Opinion Leaders
It is true that aggressive target has been triggering technological innovation and creation of new industry and employment, but the reaction from Japan so far has been rather negative. This is because Mr. Hatoyama has not yet sufficiently explained to industries and related opinion leaders that are to bear the burden in accomplishing the target. Another reason is that whether emerging countries such as China would really participate in this international initiative of GHG emission reduction is still under question.
To achieve the target, industries would need to reduce 20-30% GHG emission from manufacturing plants, which would be a big burden. It is possible that industries whose GHG emission is large such as iron and steel would be forced to reduce its production, which could lead to drastic production shift from Japan to overseas. And if sufficient CO2 emission reduction is not achieved, they would need to purchase GHG emission quotas from overseas. This is estimated to cost more than 1 trillion yen, according to a government official.
Reaction from economy and commerce associations is quite negative because the target would clearly mean increase in cost. There have been critical comments, requesting the new government to set target taking into consideration both fairness among the international community and reasonability of Japanese citizen’s burden. In fact, there are series of evidences that many Japanese industries/companies are still suffering from high cost and are negatively impacted by new government’s policy, so it is more than natural that the industry and other opinion leaders would react negatively. The break even point of many manufacturing companies has been deteriorating drastically which means that their cost competitiveness under current circumstances is tough. And the recent stock pricing trend of Japan imply that Japanese companies are already negatively impacted by new government’s policy, and it is natural that they would give negative reaction.
- Drastic Deterioration in Break Even Point Ratio of Japanese Manufacturers May Well Indicate Further Tough Job Market in Japan
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/drastic-deterioration-in-break-even.html
- New Coalition Government Policy, High Yen and Supply & Demand Oppressing Japanese Companies, Being Behind Worldwide Stock Prices Trend
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/new-coalition-government-policy-high.html
6. Upcoming Challenges For The New Hatoyama Administration To Overcome
Having succeeded in debut the highest-level international conference advocating an aggressive target, a practical “international commitment”, Prime Minister Hatoyama needs to tackle tough challenges upon returning to Japan. He would need to minimize domestic resistances, and draft and execute action plans to achieve the target, taking initiative of post COP3 debate in the international community.
Achieving the target is not easy even if the international community’s reaction is positive, because even internationally, the entire environment is quite tough. It was when Mr. Obama changed the U.S. policy on this issue of proactively reducing GHG emission to cooperate and make harmony with the international community that the international negotiation for GHG emission reduction started to drive. However, Mr. Obama also has health care reform issue to handle and the U.S. Diet is now focusing on this issue, so the deliberation in the Diet of bill regarding GHG is behind schedule. If there is no concrete progress in the G20 summit started 24th this month, it is quite possible that the targeted consensus to be made in December becomes rather difficult.
The feasibility of capital aid execution by developed countries is still a question. EU would like to make consensus of reduction target leveraging capital aid of a tens of billions of dollars. However, discussions among developed countries, that are to raise funds for the capital aid, are still ongoing, far behind the original timeline.
And, even if Mr. Hatoyama manages to convince Japanese industries, related associations, opinion leaders and citizens, the hurdle is still quite high. According to the estimation developed during the former Aso administration, it is vital to increase the solar cell implementation by 5500% (55 times the current implementation) and shift 90% of new car sales to EV cars in order to achieve 25% reduction in GHG emission vs.1990.
Achieving an extremely aggressive target would require something very drastic, some kind of breakthrough. It is passive and conservative target that people tend to agree to easily but they are usually not so much energized by such target, not coming up with innovative ideas, thus often failing to achieve the target. But history teaches us that although at first people are negative at first because it seems absolutely unrealistic, they finally agree and support extremely aggressive target set under tough environment. Such a target delivered by a leader with passion energizes and wins support from followers and related stakeholders. They will then get united to exert maximum effort, leading to creation of innovation and break through, and as a result being successful in achieving the target.
Reduction in GHG emission is an issue that each one of us on this planet is required to take action for the sustainability of human kind, and it is possible to convert this issue to business opportunities as well. It has potential to drive innovations and creation of new industry and employment, meaning growth in world economy and sustainable growth. It is highly hoped that the international community and all stakeholders in each country come in consensus and take their own responsibility to achieve their respective goal.
* The information on the summit is based on series of articles in Nikkei, Japanese leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, dated September 23, 2009.
Mr. Hatoyama, the new Japanese Prime Minister, made a speech pledging Japan’s mid-term target of 25% GHG (global greenhouse gas = CO2) emission reduction vs.1990 by 2020 at the United Nation’s Climate Change Summit held on September 22 in New York, his debut to the diplomatic setting. He also advocated his initiative of providing to developing and emerging countries Japan’s energy saving technologies and capital aid to help them drive global warming countermeasures. His speech in English won great applause and appreciation in the summit, and it is probably the first time that a speech made by a Japanese Prime Minister won such an applause. However, his aggressive target has not been provoking positive reactions back in Japan.
1. Facts On GHG Emission Reduction Mid-Term Target
Mid-term target of reducing GHG emission is the primary focus of the negotiation among participant countries on post Kyoto Protocol (COP3) after 2013, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change / UNFCCC, FCCC. The deadline of the negotiation is COP15 United Nations Climate Change Conference Copenhagen 2009 to be held in Denmark this year.
2. Background of Prime Minister Mr. Hatoyama’s Speech
The target set by the former Prime Minister, Mr. Aso, was 15% reduction vs.2005 (8% reduction vs. 1990); therefore, it is evident that Mr. Hatoyama’s target is extremely aggressive (equivalent to 30% reduction vs. 2005). He had set this target as his policy, mentioned in his speeches in Tokyo earlier this month, and announced to Japanese media on 20th this month, although he may well have been aware that there would be resistances from Japan domestic (industries and economy opinion leaders). His intention is to take the initiative in the upcoming international negotiation settings by advocating aggressive target and supporting measures in his debut diplomacy setting in his own words. (First policy he set was taking the initiative from bureaucrats in making speeches at press conferences etc. so that politicians will be delivering their message in their own words). Such a “performance” in the international community conference symbolizes and delivers strong message on the change in political administration and of his style of politics, which is “politician taking the initiative”.
- 25% Reduction of CO2, Message to be Delivered in Upcoming Diplomatic Settings by Prime Minister Mr.Hatoyama
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/new-japanese-government-officially.html
- How Japanese Government to Develop New Information Disclosure System with Media, Achieving Objectives & Promoting Interactive Communication with Media
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/how-japanese-government-ti-develop-new.html
The new target announced is the most aggressive among all participant countries, as is shown from the table below. (Source: September 23 Japanese article from Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics; translated by the author).
GHG Emission Reduction Target by 2020 of Developed Countries
(The reason that some target is not specific is that the target is specified under specific condition such as “in the case which other countries advocate sufficient reduction target”)
Country Name / Reduction Rate (%) / Standard Year / Availability of Purchasing Emission Quotas
Japan / 25 / 1990 / yes
The U.S. / 14 / 2005 -
EU / 20 - 30 / 1990 / yes
Canada / 20 / 2006 / -
Russia / 10 - 15 / 1990 / -
Switzerland / 20 - 30 / 1990 / yes
Australia / 5 - 25 / 2000 / yes
* Composed by Nikkei based on documents on framework of the U.N. climate change agreement owned by the agreement offices
3. How Mr. Hatoyama Was Careful In Making His Speech
Prime Minister Mr. Hatoyama was careful in making his speech, not forgetting to be considerate in presenting such an aggressive target. His speech included concrete measures compared with his previous speeches made in Tokyo, Japan, but he deliberately made the expression regarding “reduction compared with which year“ not to be too specific, using the expression such as “if I would state comparing with 1990” instead of “vs. 1990”, taking into consideration of the U.S. who had set the 2005 as the standard year in setting the target. He also was careful to avoid misunderstanding from other countries that Japan is prominent in presenting such an aggressive target. He did so by encouraging major GHG emission countries including the U.S., China and India to actively join in his initiative, advocating his Hatoyama initiatives including the principles below.
Hatoyama Initiatives
1) Public and private sectors of developed countries will contribute to additional capital aid.
2) Rules for measuring the effectiveness of aid will be developed.
3) Co-existence of capital aid and preservation of intellectual property right will be fulfilled.
4. Positive Reactions From The International Community
The speech was highly evaluated, with positive comments from participants. The overall reaction from the international community is positive from each standpoint.
The U.S. gave positive reaction backed up by President Obama’s positive speech in the summit, who said that countermeasure for global warming is the U.S. focus and is resolved to take actions. Regarding the reduction target he emphasized that both developed and developing countries need to take responsibility to achieve the target. He also showed his intention of reaching international consensus on this issue at CPO15 to be held in December in Copenhagen, Denmark. He advocated the need of making consensus among all countries including emerging countries, stating hat the only solution is all major countries collaborate to take measures, while developing countries (that had been emitting global warming gasses) have responsibilities to initiate the discussion.
EU evaluated the Japanese aggressive target. EU had been positive in activating trading CO2 emission quotas among countries with the objective of reducing CO2 emission globally, and therefore they would like to deepen collaboration with Japan and lead debate on this issue in the international community. Mr. Okada, the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, had meetings with Ministers of Foreign Affairs of Sweden, the current chairperson of EU, and Spain. The EU side agreed on the importance of solving climate change issue and highly evaluated Japan’s mid-term target of 25% reduction of CO2 emission vs.1990. In addition, the Minister of Climate Change and Energy of Denmark also evaluated the aggressive target of Japan.
Reactions from developing and emerging countries are subtle but not negative at all. Emerging countries including China and India have been strengthening initiatives to reduce global warming gasses in individual sectors such as generation of electricity. One point to note is that their consistent stance is that it is the developed countries responsible for the past global warming that should commit to the aggressive reduction target to be achieved by 2020.
5. Negative Reactions from Japan Domestic Opinion Leaders
It is true that aggressive target has been triggering technological innovation and creation of new industry and employment, but the reaction from Japan so far has been rather negative. This is because Mr. Hatoyama has not yet sufficiently explained to industries and related opinion leaders that are to bear the burden in accomplishing the target. Another reason is that whether emerging countries such as China would really participate in this international initiative of GHG emission reduction is still under question.
To achieve the target, industries would need to reduce 20-30% GHG emission from manufacturing plants, which would be a big burden. It is possible that industries whose GHG emission is large such as iron and steel would be forced to reduce its production, which could lead to drastic production shift from Japan to overseas. And if sufficient CO2 emission reduction is not achieved, they would need to purchase GHG emission quotas from overseas. This is estimated to cost more than 1 trillion yen, according to a government official.
Reaction from economy and commerce associations is quite negative because the target would clearly mean increase in cost. There have been critical comments, requesting the new government to set target taking into consideration both fairness among the international community and reasonability of Japanese citizen’s burden. In fact, there are series of evidences that many Japanese industries/companies are still suffering from high cost and are negatively impacted by new government’s policy, so it is more than natural that the industry and other opinion leaders would react negatively. The break even point of many manufacturing companies has been deteriorating drastically which means that their cost competitiveness under current circumstances is tough. And the recent stock pricing trend of Japan imply that Japanese companies are already negatively impacted by new government’s policy, and it is natural that they would give negative reaction.
- Drastic Deterioration in Break Even Point Ratio of Japanese Manufacturers May Well Indicate Further Tough Job Market in Japan
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/drastic-deterioration-in-break-even.html
- New Coalition Government Policy, High Yen and Supply & Demand Oppressing Japanese Companies, Being Behind Worldwide Stock Prices Trend
http://megoyanagi.blogspot.com/2009/09/new-coalition-government-policy-high.html
6. Upcoming Challenges For The New Hatoyama Administration To Overcome
Having succeeded in debut the highest-level international conference advocating an aggressive target, a practical “international commitment”, Prime Minister Hatoyama needs to tackle tough challenges upon returning to Japan. He would need to minimize domestic resistances, and draft and execute action plans to achieve the target, taking initiative of post COP3 debate in the international community.
Achieving the target is not easy even if the international community’s reaction is positive, because even internationally, the entire environment is quite tough. It was when Mr. Obama changed the U.S. policy on this issue of proactively reducing GHG emission to cooperate and make harmony with the international community that the international negotiation for GHG emission reduction started to drive. However, Mr. Obama also has health care reform issue to handle and the U.S. Diet is now focusing on this issue, so the deliberation in the Diet of bill regarding GHG is behind schedule. If there is no concrete progress in the G20 summit started 24th this month, it is quite possible that the targeted consensus to be made in December becomes rather difficult.
The feasibility of capital aid execution by developed countries is still a question. EU would like to make consensus of reduction target leveraging capital aid of a tens of billions of dollars. However, discussions among developed countries, that are to raise funds for the capital aid, are still ongoing, far behind the original timeline.
And, even if Mr. Hatoyama manages to convince Japanese industries, related associations, opinion leaders and citizens, the hurdle is still quite high. According to the estimation developed during the former Aso administration, it is vital to increase the solar cell implementation by 5500% (55 times the current implementation) and shift 90% of new car sales to EV cars in order to achieve 25% reduction in GHG emission vs.1990.
Achieving an extremely aggressive target would require something very drastic, some kind of breakthrough. It is passive and conservative target that people tend to agree to easily but they are usually not so much energized by such target, not coming up with innovative ideas, thus often failing to achieve the target. But history teaches us that although at first people are negative at first because it seems absolutely unrealistic, they finally agree and support extremely aggressive target set under tough environment. Such a target delivered by a leader with passion energizes and wins support from followers and related stakeholders. They will then get united to exert maximum effort, leading to creation of innovation and break through, and as a result being successful in achieving the target.
Reduction in GHG emission is an issue that each one of us on this planet is required to take action for the sustainability of human kind, and it is possible to convert this issue to business opportunities as well. It has potential to drive innovations and creation of new industry and employment, meaning growth in world economy and sustainable growth. It is highly hoped that the international community and all stakeholders in each country come in consensus and take their own responsibility to achieve their respective goal.
* The information on the summit is based on series of articles in Nikkei, Japanese leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, dated September 23, 2009.
New Press Conference Policy of Japanese Government
Wednesday, September 23, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
The first issue tackled by the new Japanese government led by new Prime Minister, Mr. Hatoyama, upon kick-off his new administration, was announcing the change in press announcement policy at the night of September 16, the first day of the new administration. The objective is to take initiatives from the bureaucrats. This has provoked hot debate among journalists and media.
1. How the press announcement was done and how government information used to be delivered to media
Press conference spoken by the head of ministries are held regularly and ad-hoc basis (e.g. emergency announcement), and it was bureaucrats that composed speeches; the spokespersons simply read the script. Also, major ministries had been regularly holding press conferences, speakers being administrative vice minister, assistant vice minister and chief of bureau, i.e. bureaucrats. Such press conferences can be covered specifying the speaker. Major ministries had also been regularly holding round-table conference by the same speakers. With this system, the news is covered by not specifying the speaker so usually such expression as “executive of so so ministry” as the speaker is used.
In addition, that some reporters regularly rode with administrative vice minister on his way to work to “communicate” and inform the essence to other reporters because they cannot possibly have enough time to communicate with administrative vice ministers even though they visit their house before going to work.
This system may seem “collusion” between the bureaucrats and the media, but it is true that this system was established as a result of long-year coordination of public (i.e. government) and media. Government has accountability and responsibility of information disclosure. Media has responsibility of answering to citizen’s right to know about the government. And “press club” exists as the interaction of the responsibility of the two parties.
The existence of press club is valid even though there has been some criticism, and what is critical question was bureaucrats had 100% control over information disclosure to the media and citizens.
2. The objective of new policy of press announcement and communication with media is to exclude bureaucrats
In the night of September 16, Mr. Hirano, the Chief Secretary Cabinet, announced the policy that “under the new government, no more press conferences by bureaucrats will be held”. This means that in the future, press conference will be only by politicians, i.e. ministers, deputy ministers and ministerial aids, with the objective of the new press conference policy is to take initiative from the bureaucrats. Briefing such as background explanation will not be included in this regulation. With this announcement, some ministries actually decided to abolish regular press conference spoken by the minister. Media’s reaction to the policy was negative, with such comments as “news control”.
The biggest merit of the policy is fulfillment of the objective, i.e. politicians taking the initiative to change Japan. Japanese government faced this challenge for many years and had been one of the biggest issues and therefore the new policy can be highly evaluated and appreciated. In addition, the politicians will be speaking in their own words to deliver their own strong message with passion. Speech in the speaker’s own words would also enhance speaker’s ownership, accountability and commitment. So speeches would surely be convincing, unlike most previous speakers of the press conference who read the script in monotone, even incorrectly in a few cases.
The demerits of the policy are the increase in the workload of politicians (speakers), question of whether they are capable of explaining details the bureaucrats had been explaining to the media, and communication to the media being non-interactive and less intensive compared to what it had been. Bureaucrats had been communicating intensively on the daily basis, so too much control of communication between bureaucrats and media could refrain two parties from communicating frankly, interactively and intensively. This could lead to between the two parties may well lead to possible decrease in the quantity and quality (including background and nuance) of information disclosed to the media compared to what it had been.
3. Ideal information disclosure system is expected to be created and developed by both the new government and media
Strategic and effective information disclosure of the government to communicate interactively with the media and citizens would greatly contribute to driving change, the objective and mission of the new government. From that perspective, it seems evident that the old press conference system needs review and improvement, and it is quite logical that this issue of press announcement policy, one of the most important and symbolic issue, was handled first.
There is no “the only correct solution” as in all issues, and it is highly desired that the new government and media collaborate to develop an ideal total information closure system including official press conference and unofficial settings on the daily basis. Such a new system would fulfill the responsibilities of both two parties (government and media), and achieve the new government’s objectives of the new policy announcement while accepting maximum freedom of research, reporting and expressing oneself of media.
* Information on the past press announcement and how the government communicated with the media is from a Japanese column which was posted on Nikkei PB web site on September 17
http://www.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/column/20090917/182230/
The first issue tackled by the new Japanese government led by new Prime Minister, Mr. Hatoyama, upon kick-off his new administration, was announcing the change in press announcement policy at the night of September 16, the first day of the new administration. The objective is to take initiatives from the bureaucrats. This has provoked hot debate among journalists and media.
1. How the press announcement was done and how government information used to be delivered to media
Press conference spoken by the head of ministries are held regularly and ad-hoc basis (e.g. emergency announcement), and it was bureaucrats that composed speeches; the spokespersons simply read the script. Also, major ministries had been regularly holding press conferences, speakers being administrative vice minister, assistant vice minister and chief of bureau, i.e. bureaucrats. Such press conferences can be covered specifying the speaker. Major ministries had also been regularly holding round-table conference by the same speakers. With this system, the news is covered by not specifying the speaker so usually such expression as “executive of so so ministry” as the speaker is used.
In addition, that some reporters regularly rode with administrative vice minister on his way to work to “communicate” and inform the essence to other reporters because they cannot possibly have enough time to communicate with administrative vice ministers even though they visit their house before going to work.
This system may seem “collusion” between the bureaucrats and the media, but it is true that this system was established as a result of long-year coordination of public (i.e. government) and media. Government has accountability and responsibility of information disclosure. Media has responsibility of answering to citizen’s right to know about the government. And “press club” exists as the interaction of the responsibility of the two parties.
The existence of press club is valid even though there has been some criticism, and what is critical question was bureaucrats had 100% control over information disclosure to the media and citizens.
2. The objective of new policy of press announcement and communication with media is to exclude bureaucrats
In the night of September 16, Mr. Hirano, the Chief Secretary Cabinet, announced the policy that “under the new government, no more press conferences by bureaucrats will be held”. This means that in the future, press conference will be only by politicians, i.e. ministers, deputy ministers and ministerial aids, with the objective of the new press conference policy is to take initiative from the bureaucrats. Briefing such as background explanation will not be included in this regulation. With this announcement, some ministries actually decided to abolish regular press conference spoken by the minister. Media’s reaction to the policy was negative, with such comments as “news control”.
The biggest merit of the policy is fulfillment of the objective, i.e. politicians taking the initiative to change Japan. Japanese government faced this challenge for many years and had been one of the biggest issues and therefore the new policy can be highly evaluated and appreciated. In addition, the politicians will be speaking in their own words to deliver their own strong message with passion. Speech in the speaker’s own words would also enhance speaker’s ownership, accountability and commitment. So speeches would surely be convincing, unlike most previous speakers of the press conference who read the script in monotone, even incorrectly in a few cases.
The demerits of the policy are the increase in the workload of politicians (speakers), question of whether they are capable of explaining details the bureaucrats had been explaining to the media, and communication to the media being non-interactive and less intensive compared to what it had been. Bureaucrats had been communicating intensively on the daily basis, so too much control of communication between bureaucrats and media could refrain two parties from communicating frankly, interactively and intensively. This could lead to between the two parties may well lead to possible decrease in the quantity and quality (including background and nuance) of information disclosed to the media compared to what it had been.
3. Ideal information disclosure system is expected to be created and developed by both the new government and media
Strategic and effective information disclosure of the government to communicate interactively with the media and citizens would greatly contribute to driving change, the objective and mission of the new government. From that perspective, it seems evident that the old press conference system needs review and improvement, and it is quite logical that this issue of press announcement policy, one of the most important and symbolic issue, was handled first.
There is no “the only correct solution” as in all issues, and it is highly desired that the new government and media collaborate to develop an ideal total information closure system including official press conference and unofficial settings on the daily basis. Such a new system would fulfill the responsibilities of both two parties (government and media), and achieve the new government’s objectives of the new policy announcement while accepting maximum freedom of research, reporting and expressing oneself of media.
* Information on the past press announcement and how the government communicated with the media is from a Japanese column which was posted on Nikkei PB web site on September 17
http://www.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/column/20090917/182230/
2009年9月22日火曜日
New Budgeting Policy of Japanese Government
Tuesday, September 22, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, reported on September 21 that the new Japanese government established a new budgeting policy of practically implementing multiple-year appropriation from 2010. The framework of the policy will be developed by a committed to be established within the National Strategy Bureau headed by Mr. Kan, and is planned to be submitted in the middle or end of October. There would be no legislative problem in “practical” implementation of the new budgeting system. There are three main budgeting revisions, all of which are designed to improve the effective use of budget.
First revision is practical implementation of multiple-year appropriation. The long custom has been forcing to use up the budget for the fiscal year because of one-fiscal year budget system. This system led to long-year custom of unnecessary road work performed only to use up the fiscal year budget so that the budget can be acquired the following fiscal year. What the government is trying to do is implementing a multiple-year appropriation concept and framework of the U.K., that enables the remaining fiscal budget to be carried over to the following year. In line with this, the government is also planning to establish a foundation and/or revising law(s).
Second revision is abolition of “ceiling” system that started in 1961 as budget request framework. Currently each ministry requests budget by each related expenses such as public work projects and social security according to budgetary request guideline. Instead, the National Strategy Bureau is to prioritize business. The Bureau will compose revenue framework from sources including the government’s economic forecast, and business whose budget exceed this framework could be carried over to the following year.
Third revision is improving budget inspection system. Currently Ministries of Finance and General Affairs and Board of Audit inspect the waste and validity of budget. The inspection will be changed to politics-driven, and achievement progress of the numbers based on the policy set at the beginning of the fiscal year will be monitored. And in the future, the government is to study to implement a system linking this inspection and monitoring with personnel evaluation of government officials. An example is comparing number of prospect users of airport and roads before construction and the actual number of users after the construction, and should a big gap between the two be found, it would be reflected to the personnel evaluation of government officials concerned.
To the author, in short, the three revisions are implementing systems proliferating in many private companies. In many companies, Corporate Planning or Business Plan Analysis department (equivalent to the National Strategy Bureau in the new government) prioritizes business and leads budgeting, although how the top-down and bottom-up are mixed depends on the company.
Mid-term and/or long-term strategy, road map and plan is developed first aligning with the company’s mission and vision, which is then broken down to annual business plan, and quarterly/monthly plan. Performance is monitored regularly and together with the latest forecast, adjustment is made flexibly. And usually MBO (Management by Objectives) is used, linking the goal of company/organization and individual, and reviewing what extent the team and individual target is achieved as well as processes (value & behaviour) of achievement.
The new budgeting system is a solving problem of root cause of such issue as the recent interdiction of additional appropriation for 2009 that do not contribute to business environment improvement. The interdiction has triggered big debate and confusion which is not a surprise and its feasibility is question. With the new revised budgeting system, this kind of issue should not occur.
The long-year systems and customs of public sector are unbelievable for people in the private sector. The new policy and system may have negative impact on some industries and companies such as construction, but in general, it should have positive impact from total optimization perspective. It is highly desired that the new policy is implemented without fail for effective use of budget and higher productivity of the government, meaning growth of the nation and better life of all citizens.
Nikkei, Japan’s leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, reported on September 21 that the new Japanese government established a new budgeting policy of practically implementing multiple-year appropriation from 2010. The framework of the policy will be developed by a committed to be established within the National Strategy Bureau headed by Mr. Kan, and is planned to be submitted in the middle or end of October. There would be no legislative problem in “practical” implementation of the new budgeting system. There are three main budgeting revisions, all of which are designed to improve the effective use of budget.
First revision is practical implementation of multiple-year appropriation. The long custom has been forcing to use up the budget for the fiscal year because of one-fiscal year budget system. This system led to long-year custom of unnecessary road work performed only to use up the fiscal year budget so that the budget can be acquired the following fiscal year. What the government is trying to do is implementing a multiple-year appropriation concept and framework of the U.K., that enables the remaining fiscal budget to be carried over to the following year. In line with this, the government is also planning to establish a foundation and/or revising law(s).
Second revision is abolition of “ceiling” system that started in 1961 as budget request framework. Currently each ministry requests budget by each related expenses such as public work projects and social security according to budgetary request guideline. Instead, the National Strategy Bureau is to prioritize business. The Bureau will compose revenue framework from sources including the government’s economic forecast, and business whose budget exceed this framework could be carried over to the following year.
Third revision is improving budget inspection system. Currently Ministries of Finance and General Affairs and Board of Audit inspect the waste and validity of budget. The inspection will be changed to politics-driven, and achievement progress of the numbers based on the policy set at the beginning of the fiscal year will be monitored. And in the future, the government is to study to implement a system linking this inspection and monitoring with personnel evaluation of government officials. An example is comparing number of prospect users of airport and roads before construction and the actual number of users after the construction, and should a big gap between the two be found, it would be reflected to the personnel evaluation of government officials concerned.
To the author, in short, the three revisions are implementing systems proliferating in many private companies. In many companies, Corporate Planning or Business Plan Analysis department (equivalent to the National Strategy Bureau in the new government) prioritizes business and leads budgeting, although how the top-down and bottom-up are mixed depends on the company.
Mid-term and/or long-term strategy, road map and plan is developed first aligning with the company’s mission and vision, which is then broken down to annual business plan, and quarterly/monthly plan. Performance is monitored regularly and together with the latest forecast, adjustment is made flexibly. And usually MBO (Management by Objectives) is used, linking the goal of company/organization and individual, and reviewing what extent the team and individual target is achieved as well as processes (value & behaviour) of achievement.
The new budgeting system is a solving problem of root cause of such issue as the recent interdiction of additional appropriation for 2009 that do not contribute to business environment improvement. The interdiction has triggered big debate and confusion which is not a surprise and its feasibility is question. With the new revised budgeting system, this kind of issue should not occur.
The long-year systems and customs of public sector are unbelievable for people in the private sector. The new policy and system may have negative impact on some industries and companies such as construction, but in general, it should have positive impact from total optimization perspective. It is highly desired that the new policy is implemented without fail for effective use of budget and higher productivity of the government, meaning growth of the nation and better life of all citizens.
Japan Postal Administration – Drastic Policy Change from Former Koizumi Administration
Japan Postal Administration Business to be Revised – The Government Expected to Successfully Coordinate with Related Parties and Overcome Challenges
Tuesday, September 22, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Nikkei, Japan's leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, reported on September 21 that the new Hatoyama Administration earnestly started to revise Postal Administration Business that former Koizumi Administration had been aggressively initiating, and it is clear that this would give direct and extreme impact on related industries/companies operating in Japan.
Mr. Kamei, the new Minister of Posts and Telecommunications as well as Finance explicitly said his policy that bill of freezing selling stocks of Postal Administration Business will be submitted in the upcoming ad-hoc Diet to be held this autumn. This means that the future direction of the business revision will be composed as “Fundamental Law of Postal Administration Business Reform”, including how divisional companies are to be formed and how the government is to hold stocks.
Postal Administration Business of Japan, consisting of 4 businesses of post offices, postal business, banking/finance, and insurance, had been privatized in October 2008, and the selling of stocks held by the government is to start as soon as the latter half of 2010 and to complete in the end of September 2017 (government to remain holding 1/3 of stocks for post offices and postal business).
This was the biggest topic and initiative under Koizumi Administration. It is because of this timeline that Mr. Kamei is in a hurry to submit the bill. And the reason for freezing the selling of stocks is anxiety of maintaining post office network. Post office management is dependent on banking/finance and insurance business because their revenue is generated from commission fee of contract business from the two businesses. This means that if relationship in capital is abolished, it is possible that business contract is cancelled. The new government is also to review services of postal administration business.
There are many possible options regarding how divisional companies are to be formed and how the government is to hold stocks, which are the discussion points in drafting the bill. It may well take time to come to an optimum option with consensus with all related parties; in fact, it is not clear whether related parties can really discuss in detail to come to concrete action plan in limited time. Having said that, what is quite possible is that the government is to invest 50%+ of stocks in order to maintain control of the management.
With the above, it is quite possible that freedom of Postal Administration management such as business alliance and starting new business shrinks, and it would become more difficult to a develop sustainable business model while successfully coordinating with industries that are to be directly impacted. Such industries/companies are of course banking/finance, insurance, postal and telecommunication industries/companies, the most impacted being banking/finance industry/companies. This is because the banking/finance branch network and business of Postal Administration is as big as the total of all Japanese major financial institutions of private sector, and although at present the limit of saving at Postal Administration banking/finance is 10 million yen (no limit for private sector) to control the power of Postal Administration.
However, government’s control over Postal Administration would imply unbalanced power between public sector of Postal Administration and private sector. For this reason, successful coordination of competition requirements with private institutions would be the key.
To the author, this issue is closely linked with the complicated issue of Mr. Nishikawa, who became the head of the privatized Postal Administration Business in October 2008, and whether he should resign or not had been a big issue, leading to resignation of Mr. Hatoyama, the former Minister of General Affairs (brother of the new Prime Minister), and still is under hot discussion by the new government members. It is quite possible that the new policy intends also to solve this problem.
It is highly desired that the government drafts the policy and action plan that would lead to sustainable growth for all parties thus building Win-Win relationship with all related parties with fair process; i.e. through discussion and coordination with related parties. The bill drafted with such process would surely be successfully passed in the ad-hoc Diet to become an official law, and executed smoothly.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
Nikkei, Japan's leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, reported on September 21 that the new Hatoyama Administration earnestly started to revise Postal Administration Business that former Koizumi Administration had been aggressively initiating, and it is clear that this would give direct and extreme impact on related industries/companies operating in Japan.
Mr. Kamei, the new Minister of Posts and Telecommunications as well as Finance explicitly said his policy that bill of freezing selling stocks of Postal Administration Business will be submitted in the upcoming ad-hoc Diet to be held this autumn. This means that the future direction of the business revision will be composed as “Fundamental Law of Postal Administration Business Reform”, including how divisional companies are to be formed and how the government is to hold stocks.
Postal Administration Business of Japan, consisting of 4 businesses of post offices, postal business, banking/finance, and insurance, had been privatized in October 2008, and the selling of stocks held by the government is to start as soon as the latter half of 2010 and to complete in the end of September 2017 (government to remain holding 1/3 of stocks for post offices and postal business).
This was the biggest topic and initiative under Koizumi Administration. It is because of this timeline that Mr. Kamei is in a hurry to submit the bill. And the reason for freezing the selling of stocks is anxiety of maintaining post office network. Post office management is dependent on banking/finance and insurance business because their revenue is generated from commission fee of contract business from the two businesses. This means that if relationship in capital is abolished, it is possible that business contract is cancelled. The new government is also to review services of postal administration business.
There are many possible options regarding how divisional companies are to be formed and how the government is to hold stocks, which are the discussion points in drafting the bill. It may well take time to come to an optimum option with consensus with all related parties; in fact, it is not clear whether related parties can really discuss in detail to come to concrete action plan in limited time. Having said that, what is quite possible is that the government is to invest 50%+ of stocks in order to maintain control of the management.
With the above, it is quite possible that freedom of Postal Administration management such as business alliance and starting new business shrinks, and it would become more difficult to a develop sustainable business model while successfully coordinating with industries that are to be directly impacted. Such industries/companies are of course banking/finance, insurance, postal and telecommunication industries/companies, the most impacted being banking/finance industry/companies. This is because the banking/finance branch network and business of Postal Administration is as big as the total of all Japanese major financial institutions of private sector, and although at present the limit of saving at Postal Administration banking/finance is 10 million yen (no limit for private sector) to control the power of Postal Administration.
However, government’s control over Postal Administration would imply unbalanced power between public sector of Postal Administration and private sector. For this reason, successful coordination of competition requirements with private institutions would be the key.
To the author, this issue is closely linked with the complicated issue of Mr. Nishikawa, who became the head of the privatized Postal Administration Business in October 2008, and whether he should resign or not had been a big issue, leading to resignation of Mr. Hatoyama, the former Minister of General Affairs (brother of the new Prime Minister), and still is under hot discussion by the new government members. It is quite possible that the new policy intends also to solve this problem.
It is highly desired that the government drafts the policy and action plan that would lead to sustainable growth for all parties thus building Win-Win relationship with all related parties with fair process; i.e. through discussion and coordination with related parties. The bill drafted with such process would surely be successfully passed in the ad-hoc Diet to become an official law, and executed smoothly.
2009年9月21日月曜日
Reality of Aging Society Of Japan
Monday, September 21, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
The third Monday of September is a national holiday of “Respect-for-Senior Citizens Day” in Japan. There have been articles in the newspapers and TV news related to aging society, depicting the reality of the aging society of Japan, whose average age for female is the oldest and is one of the country whose problem of aging society is severe.
Nikkei, Japan's leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, today reported that according to the survey implemented and analyzed by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) on estimated population as of September 15, senior citizens above 65 years old increased from 2008 by 800,000 people reaching the highest in the history which is 28.98 million people, even though population of 15-64 years old decreased by 760,000 people from 2008 to 81.56 million people. This is 22.7% of the total population, which is 0.6 point increase from 2008. The female senior citizen over 65 years old is more than 25% of the total population.
Moreover, the household with such senior citizen is 18.21 million, which is increase by 1.8 million from 5 years ago. This includes 4.14 households in which a senior citizen lives on his/her own, meaning higher possibility of solitary death.
TV news this morning reported a few senior citizens full of vitality, both physically and mentally. A 103 year old man looks after himself, leading extremely healthy live including shaving and taking a towel bath of cold water which is known as very good for health. His dining habit is also good; he eats balanced diet cuisines of appropriate quantity, and chews at least 30 times before swallowing. He is fluent in 5 languages and enjoys calligraphy. He says that the secret of being physically and mentally healthy is having something to live for.
A woman of 87 year old is, surprisingly, an active athlete, specialized in 200 metres. She is a record holder of 200 metres for Japanese women over 65 years old of approximately 46 seconds. She started to sprint in earnest when a relay member was desperately needed in a sports day when she was 70 years old and she joined extemporarily. Since then, she has been doing training to sprint everyday and participating in various competitions, giving smashing results. She says that she would like to keep on running as long as she is physically healthy.
The aging society is a big issue in Japan. Because of this issue, the former government established a health care system for the latter-stage elderly in 2008, which had been a topic under hot discussion in the General Election held in August 30. Mr. Nagatsuma, the new Health, Labour and Welfare Minister (nicknamed “Mr. Pension” because he had been asking tough questions on pension before the new government was kicked off), announced recently that this policy will be change/terminated.
The new policy would have direct impact on the senior citizens and on healthcare industry. Of course, the aging society would have impact on overall society, economy, and labour market. Whatever the policy and regulation of the new government may be, it seems that senior citizens cannot simply segmented by their age group and more flexibility is desired.
The third Monday of September is a national holiday of “Respect-for-Senior Citizens Day” in Japan. There have been articles in the newspapers and TV news related to aging society, depicting the reality of the aging society of Japan, whose average age for female is the oldest and is one of the country whose problem of aging society is severe.
Nikkei, Japan's leading newspaper specialized in economy and politics, today reported that according to the survey implemented and analyzed by Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) on estimated population as of September 15, senior citizens above 65 years old increased from 2008 by 800,000 people reaching the highest in the history which is 28.98 million people, even though population of 15-64 years old decreased by 760,000 people from 2008 to 81.56 million people. This is 22.7% of the total population, which is 0.6 point increase from 2008. The female senior citizen over 65 years old is more than 25% of the total population.
Moreover, the household with such senior citizen is 18.21 million, which is increase by 1.8 million from 5 years ago. This includes 4.14 households in which a senior citizen lives on his/her own, meaning higher possibility of solitary death.
TV news this morning reported a few senior citizens full of vitality, both physically and mentally. A 103 year old man looks after himself, leading extremely healthy live including shaving and taking a towel bath of cold water which is known as very good for health. His dining habit is also good; he eats balanced diet cuisines of appropriate quantity, and chews at least 30 times before swallowing. He is fluent in 5 languages and enjoys calligraphy. He says that the secret of being physically and mentally healthy is having something to live for.
A woman of 87 year old is, surprisingly, an active athlete, specialized in 200 metres. She is a record holder of 200 metres for Japanese women over 65 years old of approximately 46 seconds. She started to sprint in earnest when a relay member was desperately needed in a sports day when she was 70 years old and she joined extemporarily. Since then, she has been doing training to sprint everyday and participating in various competitions, giving smashing results. She says that she would like to keep on running as long as she is physically healthy.
The aging society is a big issue in Japan. Because of this issue, the former government established a health care system for the latter-stage elderly in 2008, which had been a topic under hot discussion in the General Election held in August 30. Mr. Nagatsuma, the new Health, Labour and Welfare Minister (nicknamed “Mr. Pension” because he had been asking tough questions on pension before the new government was kicked off), announced recently that this policy will be change/terminated.
The new policy would have direct impact on the senior citizens and on healthcare industry. Of course, the aging society would have impact on overall society, economy, and labour market. Whatever the policy and regulation of the new government may be, it seems that senior citizens cannot simply segmented by their age group and more flexibility is desired.
2009年9月20日日曜日
25% CO2 Reduction, Message to be Delivered in Upcoming Diplomacic Settings by Prime Minister Mr.Hatoyama - What Does This Mean?
Sunday, September 20, 2009 – Osaka, Japan
The Chief Cabinet Secretary of the new Japanese government, Mr. Hirano, announced today which was just broadcasted in the 9 o’clock evening news, that 25% reduction of CO2 emission vs. 1990 is to be fulfilled by 2020. Mr. Hirano also said that this message will be strongly delivered by Mr. Hatoyama, the new prime minister of Japan, in his diplomacy debut, his first visit to the U.S. to meet President Obama, and at the United Nations General Assembly.
This policy was clearly stated in the manifest of the DPJ, the current ruling party, and although it is in line with the global trend of co-existence with the global environment, it is possible that this policy will provoke hot discussions and resistance from the industry world and Japanese citizens.
This policy would mean possible severe regulation and allocation of reduction in CO2 emission to each industry sector and companies operating in Japan (including Japan branch of foreign capital companies). Automobile companies have already taken this trend as a business opportunity and started aggressively to develop and market EV cars. And electronics companies are focusing on environmentally friendly energy and battery business and on developing and marketing eco (environmentally friendly, energy saving and economic) electric appliances. Such automobile and electronic companies had been recently benefiting from the old ruling party’s policy of “Eco Point”, leading to increase in sales. However, in general, severe regulation and allocation of reduction in CO2 emission would be a burden and negatively impact from cost perspective. This negative impact has already been seen reflected in the stock price, as stated in the article posted on September 19.
New Coalition Government Policy, High Yen and Supply & Demand Oppressing Japanese Companies Resulting in Behind Worldwide High Stock Prices Trend
This policy should drive energy saving in all settings (public and private; work place, public places and home settings), and therefore minimum use of electricity including further warm and cool biz is likely to be promoted. This kind of promotion at workplace may well encourage employees to improve productivity and go home as early as possible which also may mean work-life balance and further driving energy saving at public places and home settings. But too much promotion could lead to negative impact, such as debate leading to refraining illumination at amusement and shopping quarters and people would be deprived of entertainment at night and the town would lose “vigour”.
The Japanese new government needs to come into consensus on this policy with the industry world opinion leaders and win the positive public opinion. The government surely would not want to drop its supporting rate with this issue; from Mr. Koizumi’s reform, it is apparent that the “life line” of the Hatoyama government to successfully solve many problems to change Japan. As in the previous article posted on September 6,
The DPJ Expected to Lead Japan to Change Similarly to Turnaround of Ailing Companies but with More Dynamism and Complexity
this policy is not highly evaluated by the governor and citizen so it may well be tough for the new government to convince key members, but this process cannot be ignored, similarly to turnaround and change management of global companies.
The Chief Cabinet Secretary of the new Japanese government, Mr. Hirano, announced today which was just broadcasted in the 9 o’clock evening news, that 25% reduction of CO2 emission vs. 1990 is to be fulfilled by 2020. Mr. Hirano also said that this message will be strongly delivered by Mr. Hatoyama, the new prime minister of Japan, in his diplomacy debut, his first visit to the U.S. to meet President Obama, and at the United Nations General Assembly.
This policy was clearly stated in the manifest of the DPJ, the current ruling party, and although it is in line with the global trend of co-existence with the global environment, it is possible that this policy will provoke hot discussions and resistance from the industry world and Japanese citizens.
This policy would mean possible severe regulation and allocation of reduction in CO2 emission to each industry sector and companies operating in Japan (including Japan branch of foreign capital companies). Automobile companies have already taken this trend as a business opportunity and started aggressively to develop and market EV cars. And electronics companies are focusing on environmentally friendly energy and battery business and on developing and marketing eco (environmentally friendly, energy saving and economic) electric appliances. Such automobile and electronic companies had been recently benefiting from the old ruling party’s policy of “Eco Point”, leading to increase in sales. However, in general, severe regulation and allocation of reduction in CO2 emission would be a burden and negatively impact from cost perspective. This negative impact has already been seen reflected in the stock price, as stated in the article posted on September 19.
New Coalition Government Policy, High Yen and Supply & Demand Oppressing Japanese Companies Resulting in Behind Worldwide High Stock Prices Trend
This policy should drive energy saving in all settings (public and private; work place, public places and home settings), and therefore minimum use of electricity including further warm and cool biz is likely to be promoted. This kind of promotion at workplace may well encourage employees to improve productivity and go home as early as possible which also may mean work-life balance and further driving energy saving at public places and home settings. But too much promotion could lead to negative impact, such as debate leading to refraining illumination at amusement and shopping quarters and people would be deprived of entertainment at night and the town would lose “vigour”.
The Japanese new government needs to come into consensus on this policy with the industry world opinion leaders and win the positive public opinion. The government surely would not want to drop its supporting rate with this issue; from Mr. Koizumi’s reform, it is apparent that the “life line” of the Hatoyama government to successfully solve many problems to change Japan. As in the previous article posted on September 6,
The DPJ Expected to Lead Japan to Change Similarly to Turnaround of Ailing Companies but with More Dynamism and Complexity
this policy is not highly evaluated by the governor and citizen so it may well be tough for the new government to convince key members, but this process cannot be ignored, similarly to turnaround and change management of global companies.
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